US embassy cable - 04BRUSSELS4936

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 004936 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR NEA - L.DIBBLE; NEA/IPA AND EUR/ERA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/19/2009 
TAGS: PREL, KPAL, EAID, IS, EUN, USEU BRUSSELS 
SUBJECT: MEPP:  EU IS FOCUSED ON PA ELECTIONS TO GET 
ROADMAP BACK ON TRACK 
 
 
Classified By: USEU POLOFF LEE LITZENBERGER; REASONS 1.4 (B,D) 
 
1.  (C) Summary. In meetings with a wide range of EU 
officials, NEA DAS Elizabeth Dibble discussed next steps in 
the Middle East Peace Process on November 16.  The EU is 
focused on the need to support Palestinian presidential 
elections as a first step to getting the roadmap back on 
track.  The EU looks to Israel to ease restrictions on 
movement in the territories to permit elections, and to 
coordinate with the Palestinians on the economic aspects of 
the Gaza disengagement plan.  The EU looks to the U.S. to 
work with Israel on both issues, and floated the idea of 
articulating with the U.S. a more detailed vision of a 
negotiated solution as a means to spur the roadmap forward. 
End Summary. 
 
2.  (C)  On November 16, NEA DAS Elizabeth Dibble held US-EU 
COMEP (Middle East Peace Process) discussions with EU 
officials; met separately with EU Special Middle East Envoy 
Marc Otte and EU High Rep Solana's Foreign Policy Advisor 
Robert Cooper; and participated in an informal donors meeting 
in advance of the December Ad Hoc Liaison Committee (AHLC) 
meeting on assistance to the Palestinian Authority (PA). 
 
EU Post-Arafat Priorities 
------------------ 
3.  (C)  EU Special Envoy Marc Otte outlined three main 
priorities for US-EU (and Quartet) coordination:  Supporting 
Palestinian presidential elections in 60 days; supporting PA 
efforts to maintain and enhance law and order and national 
unity; and providing economic assistance to keep the PA 
solvent.  He saw Abu Mazen as the likely winner of 
presidential elections, and viewed him as the one candidate 
who could bridge the old/young and inside/outside(Tunisia) 
splits in the PLO.  Otte said Abu Mazen told him and EU High 
Rep Solana in Ramallah at Arafat's funeral that he, Abu 
Mazen, now controlled security forces and was focused on 
restoring law and order, has been in touch with Hamas, which 
Abu Mazen said would support a Palestinian State in the West 
Bank/Gaza strip if it is involved in the political process. 
Abu Mazen asked for help in two areas:  rebuilding the police 
force, and forging a cease-fire leading to a political 
process that would enable him to disarm militias.  On the 
economic front, PA Finance Minister Fayyad needs end of year 
help and wants the international community to press Arab 
states to deliver on their pledges to support the PA 
financially. 
 
4.  (C)  Commission Middle East Director Christian Leffler 
reinforced the point that elections within 60 days are key, 
but also stressed the need to support Fayyad and keep the PA 
afloat financially.  It will be difficult for the EU, he 
said, to find additional money before 2005; one or two EU 
member states may soon announce a contribution to the PA's 
Trust Fund, but Fayyad is "running out of both ideas and 
money now." Leffler urged "weekly" US-EU pressure on Arab 
states, who are enjoying an enormous oil-price windfall, to 
close the end-of-year PA budget shortfall.  He also pointedly 
called on the U.S. to make a donation to the Trust Fund.  He 
welcomed Israel's recent decision to transfer tax receipts, 
which should be encouraged to continue as a gesture of 
goodwill toward Fayyad. 
 
Solana message to Israel:  support elections 
------------------------ 
5.  (C)  Otte said Solana's message to the Israelis following 
Arafat's funeral was that while there was no need of public 
statements embracing Abu Mazen, there was also no need to 
"test" the emerging Palestinian leadership; they were known 
quantities.  Israel needs to lift the closures, improve 
living conditions in the territories, and allow movement to 
facilitate elections, including in East Jerusalem.  Solana 
told the Israelis that the EU would do everything it could to 
ensure the Palestinians do the right things.  He said the 
Israelis he met with (including Weisglass) responded 
positively. 
 
6.  (C)  Leffler noted that the EU had reviewed how election 
observation was handled in 1996, and said that at that time 
the EC spent 20 million Euros for all aspects of presidential 
and parliamentary elections:  preparation, technical 
assistance, and observation.  The fielded 300 out of a total 
of 600 international observers.  Otte said the Palestinians 
want international observers on the ground "so the Israelis 
will behave."  Otte asked whether the Quartet should not soon 
begin endorsing the concept of international observers.  EU 
officials said they agree with the U.S. that the PA should 
focus on presidential elections now; municipal elections 
should follow and not be held simultaneously.  Leffler said 
the EC strongly insisted on this point; under current PA 
plans municipal elections would be fatally flawed.  Leffler 
said the PA has submitted an initial request for 5.8 million 
dollars in assistance for the Presidential election.  Leffler 
noted that the EU would be able to provide the bulk of that 
amount from existing funds, but that there would be a 
shortfall of approximately 1 to 1.5 million dollars that 
would have to come from other donors. 
 
EU seeks more US engagement 
-------------------------- 
7.  (C) EU officials across the board stressed the need for 
political and financial support for the emerging Palestinian 
leadership, and for U.S. engagement to get the roadmap back 
on track.  Solana Foreign Policy Advisor Cooper said the EU 
has been disappointed by past U.S. rhetoric that was not 
matched by actions.  Dutch Presidency MFA rep den Hond 
pressed for the US and EU to articulate a more detailed 
vision of the two-state solution that would clarify the end 
state of final status issues.  In response, DAS Dibble 
commented that this was premature, given the need to get past 
elections and give both parties time to build confidence. 
Commission Middle East Director Leffler urged the U.S. to 
provide direct assistance to the Palestinian Authority.  All 
EU officials noted the importance of Israel making gestures 
and taking steps to support Palestinian elections by easing 
restrictions on movement in the territories, facilitating 
voter registration, releasing detainees, reducing its 
military incursions and presence, and promoting Egyptian-PA 
efforts for a cease-fire.  They said they look to the U.S. to 
work with Israel on these issues. 
 
AHLC informal donors meeting 
---------------------- 
8.  (C)  Representatives from Norway, Canada, the 
Netherlands, and the World Bank joined US and EU officials 
for an informal meeting to -discuss the upcoming AHLC 
meeting, which all agreed would be one of the most important 
ever.  Notwithstanding a sharp exchange between Leffler and 
the Norwegian rep over a relatively minor scheduling issue, 
general agreement was reached on an approach to the meeting. 
Norway circulated a draft agenda, and agreed to draft and 
circulate a framework chairman's summary.  This would begin 
with a preambular statement referring to previous Quartet 
statements and laying out the political context of the 
meeting that would make clear the agenda was broader than 
just Gaza disengagement, but was linked to the objective of a 
political process.  The Summary would report donors' 
assessment of the WB report on Gaza disengagement as useful 
work, but will note the need for more to be done to ensure 
the economic viability of Gaza.  The summary will list 
specific projects that need financing in Gaza, including the 
port (a RO-RO facility), the airport/heliport, and water 
projects.  The chairman's summary would also address Trust 
Fund/Budget issues, noting the needs of the PA and recording 
what donors (especially Arab donors) intend to provide in 
terms of end-of-year budget support in 2004 and in 2005.  The 
summary would note Israel's impressive effort to implement 
disengagement and the importance of the AHLC reciprocating 
with a program to support the process.  Finally, the summary 
should set a date for a follow-on pledging conference and 
AHLC to demonstrate that a process is underway. 
 
Comment 
------- 
9.  (C)  The EU has high expectations that the U.S. will 
increase its engagement following Arafat's demise to take 
advantage of the resulting window of opportunity to move 
ahead on the roadmap.  They are, however, more focused on how 
the U.S. can persuade Israel to take a list of steps to work 
back to the roadmap than on how to ensure the new Palestinian 
leadership takes action to curb terrorist violence and 
demonstrate that it is a credible negotiating partner. 
 
McKinley