US embassy cable - 04NEWDELHI7389

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 NEW DELHI 007389 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/19/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, PREL, IN, Indian Domestic Politics 
SUBJECT: THE BJP CONTINUES ITS DOWNWARD SPIRAL 
 
REF: A. NEW DELHI 7088 
     B. NEW DELHI 6998 
     C. NEW DELHI 6606 
     D. CHENNAI 1418 
 
Classified By: PolCouns Geoffrey Pyatt, Reasons 1.4 (B,D). 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  Former DPM LK Advani has failed to quell 
the powerful centrifugal forces that threaten to tear apart 
the BJP and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), and the 
party is continuing a downward spiral that threatens to doom 
its immediate electoral chances.  The Sangh Parivar (family 
of Hindu organizations) insists that the BJP return to 
Hindutva, while party pragmatists argue for a 
development-oriented election strategy.  The BJP's secular 
NDA allies, who want no part of Hindutva, are increasingly 
disaffected, contributing to growing rumors of future 
defections to the ruling United Progressive Alliance (UPA). 
Former PM Vajpayee is in poor health and has faded from 
active politics, and the aging Advani is no longer the "iron 
man."  The lack of a clear successor to these two BJP 
standard-bearers has set off growing battles between the 
party's second tier leadership, personified by the flamboyant 
and erratic behavior of the former Chief Minister of Madhya 
Pradesh (MP) Uma Bharti.  The BJP needs electoral success to 
revive, but the prospects are not good.  Continued defeats 
will tempt the party to increasingly resort to a hard line 
and irresponsible rhetoric, including on issues of US/India 
relations.  End Summary. 
 
Back to the Future 
------------------ 
 
2.  (C) The past six months have seen the unremitting decline 
of the BJP.  Prior to the May parliamentary contest, Party 
standard-bearer and then Deputy PM LK Advani staked his 
reputation on a nationwide tour aimed at invigorating 
grass-roots support.  Not only did it fail to inspire, but 
the BJP lost power, falling to only 10 Lok Sabha seats from 
its previous 32 in the key Hindi heartland state of Uttar 
Pradesh (UP).  Party morale plummeted and BJP front 
organizations, such as the Youth Wing became moribund.  When 
the party failed to knock the Congress/Nationalist Congress 
Party (NCP) combine from power in the Maharashtra state 
election in early October, it replaced Party President 
Venkaiah Naidu with Advani, in hopes that he would reverse 
the trend. 
 
3.  (C) Advani assumed the leadership of a deeply divided 
party.  Factionalism became rampant after the electoral 
defeats.  Advani has waited six years to become PM, but with 
his party in the political wilderness, there is little 
prospect for a quick return to power.  This has invigorated 
the party's second tier leadership, who began to openly fight 
over the top spots.  Tasked with ending the squabbling, 
restoring party discipline, and working with the secular 
parties in the NDA to win upcoming state elections in Bihar, 
Jharkhand, and Haryana, Advani has made little progress, 
despite his best efforts. 
 
Uma as Figurehead 
----------------- 
 
4.  (C) The BJP's problems are personified in the behavior 
and fortunes of Uma Bharti, the former Chief Minister of MP. 
Bharti, an OBC (other backward caste), is renowned for her 
ability to rouse the masses.  In a party dominated by upper 
castes, she is largely distrusted by the leadership, both for 
her low caste background and erratic personality.  Advani has 
long patronized Bharti in the hope that she could increase 
popular support and broaden the BJP's narrow caste base, but 
she remains notoriously unstable and unpredictable. 
 
5.  (C) Bharti resigned as MP Chief Minister following her 
indictment in an old public order case in October.  Although 
the BJP rallied around her and openly supported her 
subsequent "flag march" around India, press reports and BJP 
contacts confirm that she had made a mess of the state 
administration and the party was happy to see her depart. 
Upon taking over the party presidency, Advani continued to 
patronize Bharti, making her one of the six BJP general 
secretaries.  On November 10, the newly-selected BJP 
 
SIPDIS 
leadership met for the first time in front of television 
cameras.  Advani began to complain of "indiscipline" in the 
party ranks, chiding Bharti for her public criticism of 
senior leader Pramod Mahajan, and other BJP leaders. 
 
6.  (U) In one of India's more sensational "tabloid TV style" 
rows, Bharti then told Advani that she was the victim of a 
smear campaign orchestrated by unnamed BJP leaders in the 
Rajya Sabha, who "did not have to face the voters," and that 
she was forced to "defend my reputation."  When Advani said 
the matter was "closed," Bharti refused to yield the floor 
and marched out, daring Advani to discipline her.  The 
publicly humiliated BJP triumvirate of Advani, Vajpayee and 
Jaswant Singh then dropped Bharti from the leadership and 
suspended her party membership. 
 
Hindutva Losing its Luster 
-------------------------- 
 
7.  (C) Since the BJP/NDA has been out of power, the 
hard-line wing of the Sangh Parivar has been reasserting 
itself, making repeated calls for a return to Hindutva. 
Advani, who is well-aware that the RSS supplies the 
disciplined base for what is an increasingly undisciplined 
party, has attempted to mollify the hard-liners.  Upon being 
named to the presidency, Advani assured party workers that a 
Ram temple would be built in Ayodhya, and attended the 
hard-line RSS leadership meeting in Hardwar on November 6. 
Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP) leader Pravin Togodia told the 
press that he was not happy with Advani's actions and that 
the party must return to Hindutva not in "months, but days." 
Togodia, other VHP leaders, and RSS leader KS Sudarshan 
showed their displeasure with Advani by staying away from the 
Hardwar meeting. 
 
8.  (C) Advani has not only failed to reassure the Sangh 
Parivar, but has alienated the BJP's secular NDA allies, who 
are increasingly alarmed at a possible Hindutva revival. 
Sections of the Bihar-based Janata Dal United (JD-U), headed 
by George Fernandes, are calling for it to leave the NDA and 
join the ruling United Progressive Alliance (UPA) before the 
February 2005 elections.  Such a move could set off an exodus 
from the NDA, as other secular partners decide to switch 
sides.  On November 8, the JD-U passed a resolution reminding 
the BJP that it had joined the NDA only after its Hindutva 
planks were removed from the alliance platform.  Saying that 
it would "never compromise with religious bigotry," the JD-U 
said it was fully prepared to "take another road" if the BJP 
rekindled Hindutva.  Advani met with the NDA leadership on 
November 15 and, in what most analysts saw as a BJP retreat 
from Hindutva, issued a joint statement that there should be 
a "negotiated settlement" of the Ayodhya dispute. 
 
9.  (SBU) In another indicator of the ongoing decline of 
Hindutva, on November 12, the Tamil Nadu state government 
indicted Sri Jayendra Saraswathi, a powerful Hindu religious 
leader, on murder charges (Reftel D).  Although the governing 
party in Tamil Nadu, the AIDMK, is part of the NDA, Chief 
Minister Jayalalitha told reporters on November 17 that "all 
are equal before the law," and assured them she would proceed 
with the case.  Although the Sangh Parivar decried the arrest 
as an "assault against Hinduism," its efforts to organize 
public protests have largely been ignored and public reaction 
muted. 
 
A Potential Split 
----------------- 
 
10.  (C) The Sangh Parivar has long threatened to leave the 
BJP and create a Bharatiya Hindutva Party (BHP).  Hard-liners 
within the Sangh Parivar are the principal proponents of such 
a split, arguing that a secularized BJP could then pursue a 
pragmatic development-oriented agenda based on the "water, 
roads, power" slogan, leaving the BHP with the Hindutva 
agenda.  The BHP would then join the NDA and work out seat 
adjustments and cooperative arrangements with the BJP.  These 
theorists contend that when the two vastly disparate 
ideologies are freed of the constant tension of belonging to 
the same party, they will be able to work together in harmony 
and create a broad-based coalition to bring the NDA back to 
power in New Delhi.  The Sangh Parivar has repeatedly paraded 
the BHP idea whenever it does not get its way on BJP 
decisions, and few take the idea seriously.  Should the BJP's 
electoral fortunes continue to decline, however, prospects of 
a schism will increase. 
 
Views of a BJP Insider 
---------------------- 
 
11.  (C) On November 17, BJP National Executive Member and 
RSS leader Seshadri Chari told Poloff that he was not worried 
about these seemingly ominous developments.  Chari claimed 
that the NDA was far more united and effective than the UPA, 
pointing out that the Left/Communists claim to support the 
UPA but act more like an opposition.  He observed that 
Congress and the BJP essentially agree on economic 
liberalization and most foreign policy issues, including the 
need for closer ties with the US, while the Left opposes 
practically everything the UPA stands for.  Chari argued that 
this arrangement is inherently unstable, could come apart at 
any time, and that Congress should be worried about the UPA's 
survival.  According to Chari, these problems are far more 
serious than those plaguing the BJP/NDA. 
 
12.  (C) Chari confided that the RSS wanted Naidu to remain 
as BJP President and was opposed to Advani's accession.  He 
contended that Advani, along with Vajpayee, is the most 
prestigious and powerful BJP leader and the party's "trump 
card."  The RSS argued that pushing him into the top slot was 
premature and unwarranted, as it makes the party's problems 
seem more severe than they actually are.  In Chari's view, 
Advani has restored discipline, and convinced the BJP's 
second tier leaders that he is "the first among equals."  He 
dismissed press reporting about Bharti, saying that the party 
never issued a formal suspension order, she had sent a letter 
of apology to Advani, and that she would be quietly 
reintegrated into the hierarchy.  Chari also denied that 
Hindutva was an issue, claiming that Indian nationalism and 
Hindutva are one and the same, and that the "time for Ram 
temple politics has passed."  He predicted that with these 
problems resolved, the BJP would assume the role of an active 
and vigorous opposition party. 
 
13.  (C) Chari was less sanguine about BJP electoral 
prospects, admitting that it would be "difficult" for the 
party to do well in the upcoming state elections in Haryana, 
Bihar, and Jharkhand.  Admitting that UPA ally Laloo Prasad 
Yadav was well-entrenched in his state, Chari noted that the 
"anti-incumbency factor" could hand Bihar to the BJP and its 
JD-U allies.  In Jharkhand, the BJP is the incumbent and 
fighting alone against a powerful combination of Congress and 
the tribal-based JMM party.  In Haryana, Chari hoped that the 
BJP could entice the ruling Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) 
back into the NDA to recapture the state.  He conceded that 
should the BJP lose Jharkhand and fail to recapture the other 
two states, it would be a clean sweep for the Congress/UPA, 
and a crushing blow to the BJP, with long-term political 
implications.  Chari's hopes for a revived BJP/INLD alliance 
seem to have come to naught, as the BJP announced on November 
17 that it would contest the Haryana elections alone. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
14.  (C) The BJP is in trouble.  The party's principal 
figurehead, former PM Vajpayee, is rapidly aging and will 
soon leave active politics.  Advani has long waited for his 
chance to become PM, but his age is also catching up with 
him.  The Party has not groomed a successor to these two 
stalwarts, and it is not clear that any BJP second tier 
leader has the gravitas and popular appeal of Vajpayee and 
Advani, and can supply the necessary counterweight to the 
growing popularity of Sonia Gandhi and her children. 
Personality clashes between ambitious second tier aspirants 
have only been contained for the time being, and the Sangh 
Parivar's determination to pursue Hindutva is contributing to 
growing disaffection among the NDA allies.  Advani, once the 
"iron man" of Indian politics, might earlier have resolved 
these problems.  Now, however he has only papered over the 
centrifugal forces that threaten to break apart the BJP and 
the NDA.  If the BJP/NDA does badly in upcoming elections, 
all bets are off, and the chances will grow that the BJP will 
stake out an increasingly hard line and irresponsible 
positions on issues of importance to the US, like economic 
reform, Indo-Pak relations, and the US-India partnership. 
BLAKE