US embassy cable - 04ISTANBUL1729

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISTANBUL 001729 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/17/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, TU, Istanbul 
SUBJECT: REPUBLICAN PEOPLES' PARTY: IS THE YELLOW ROSE 
WILTING? 
 
REF: A. 03 ISTANBUL 1409 
 
     B. ANKARA 3158 
     C. ANKARA 2327 
     D. ANKARA 1905 
 
Classified By: Acting Consul General Stuart Smith for Reasons 1.5 (b&d) 
 
 
This cable was coordinated with Embassy Ankara. 
 
1. (sbu) Summary: Open warfare between main opposition CHP 
leader Deniz Baykal and Mustafa Sarigul ("Yellow Rose" in 
Turkish), the popular CHP mayor of Istanbul's Sisli district, 
will probably lead to Sarigul's eviction from the party.  Few 
observers doubt that the corruption allegations against 
Sarigul; it is equally obvious that  Baykal is using the 
issue to try to eliminate an upstart rival who has spent 
months "campaigning" in front of staged rallies in Anatolia 
far from his district.  From Istanbul it appears that 
Sarigul, who has made little effort to conceal his ambition 
to replace Baykal, foolishly overplayed his cards.  From 
Ankara, we see the possibility that Sarigul, backed by 
retired left-nationalist military officers and disgraced 
former political heavyweights, may once again switch parties 
and try to take over the moribund center-right DYP.  However, 
despite his image as a "common-touch" politician and his 
enduring popularity, Sarigul lacks the party organization to 
marry his overweening prime ministerial ambitions with facts 
on the ground.  In any event, the Baykal-Sarigul clash is 
further degrading CHP's already heavily-damaged reputation. 
End Summary. 
 
2. (sbu) Beleaguered main opposition Republican People's 
Party (CHP) has briefly raised its profile again on the back 
of stories detailing party infighting and corruption.  On 
November 16, CHP Secretary General announced the findings of 
an internal party investigation into corruption allegations 
against Istanbul Sisli district mayor Mustafa Sarigul.  The 
report claims that Sarigul took USD 300,000 in bribes several 
years ago to allow the construction of several illegal 
buildings in Sisli and, as a result, recommends that he be 
expelled from the party.  Sarigul responded immediately, 
calling the accusations baseless, charging the CHP leadership 
with seeking to stifle the "people's will," and promising to 
open a defamation suit. 
 
3. (c) Based on what we know about Sarigul personally and 
municipal politics in general, there is little doubt that the 
CHP charges have merit; Sarigul is also the subject of a 
simultaneous ongoing official corruption investigation.  Both 
the Consulate and the Embassy (refs) have heard reports of 
Sarigul's corruption and unsavory business connections. 
Granting dubious building permits or looking the other way on 
illegal construction, moreover, is precisely how many local 
district mayors cash in on their positions.  On the other 
hand, if USD 300,000 were the extent of Sarigul's corruption 
(and given that he is known as "Mister 15 percent," such a 
low figure is unlikely), that would probably make him one of 
the cleaner mayors in Istanbul. 
 
4. (c) As such, it is clear that CHP's investigation and 
report were politically motivated.  Even CHP party insider, 
and another would-be Baykal challenger, Hursit Gunes admitted 
to poloff that Baykal is simply eliminating a political 
(albeit corrupt) rival.  A wide range of CHP contacts have 
told us for years that Sarigul enjoys little support within 
the party structure, but his emergence in recent months as an 
apparently viable challenger to Baykal had earned him the 
support of several dissident MPs.  According to Gunes, 
however, this latest development may cost him even that 
meager support (although about a dozen CHP MPs have defied 
the party leadership's threats of punishment and promised to 
attend a November 20 Sarigul rally in the southern port city 
of Mersin). 
 
5. (c) If he is eventually expelled from the party, as 
contacts in Istanbul now expect, Sarigul may seek to 
capitalize on his local popularity and name recognition by 
forming his own party.  Without an organized and effective 
party base, however, it is unlikely that Sarigul would be 
more than a flash in the pan.  (Indeed, political observers 
in Ankara point to the fact that Sarigul buses in supporters 
for his Anatolian rallies, another sign that his popular 
support outside Istanbul is no more than media hype).  On the 
other hand, we have heard in Ankara that, backed by 
now-disgraced former ANAP PM Yilmaz and former DSP Deputy PM 
Ozkan, Sarigul may try to work out a deal with current 
center-right DYP leader Agar and, switching parties for the 
third time, take over DYP. 
 
6. (sbu) The more immediate question is how much this latest 
leadership struggle in CHP will further damage CHP's already 
poor image as a lackluster opposition party.  For better or 
worse, Sarigul is one of the CHP's most telegenic 
politicians, at least in Istanbul.  He won reelection on 
March 28 with almost 70 percent of the vote in Sisli and he 
has used his public relation skills and establishment allies 
to stay in the press.  Expulsion from CHP may benefit Baykal 
personally, but further heightens the Baykal-imposed bunker 
mentality in CHP.  Gunes acknowledged, for example, that 
targeting Sarigul, while other more corrupt senior CHP 
officials sit untouched, is a further blow to CHP's 
credibility. 
 
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SMITH