US embassy cable - 04TAIPEI3712

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 003712 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/19/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, TW 
SUBJECT: LY ELECTION PREVIEW: TAOYUAN COUNTY 
 
 
Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason 1.4 (B/D) 
 
1. (C) Summary: Taoyuan County, with thirteen seats, is the 
largest Legislative Yuan (LY) election district in Taiwan. 
As in other northern districts, the Democratic Progressive 
Party (DPP) has taken an aggressive nominating strategy and 
at a minimum hopes to parlay its strong showing during the 
2004 presidential election into a modest gain in legislative 
seats, while the Pan-Blue coalition is seeking to preserve 
its eight to five seat advantage gained during the last 
legislative election in 2001.  A disintegrating People's 
First Party (PFP), however, increasingly appears unable to 
deliver all three seats it gained in 2001 to the Pan-Blue 
coalition again, and the advantage of Pan-Blue forces is 
likely to be reduced to a one seat margin of seven to six. 
End Summary. 
 
A Close Race Worth Watching 
--------------------------- 
 
2. (C) With a population of 1.8 million people, Taoyuan is 
the second largest county in Taiwan, after Taipei County, and 
has the largest number of seats for any single election 
district on the island.  The Taoyuan electorate traditionally 
has leaned toward Pan-Blue candidates and its eight to five 
seat distribution in favor of the Pan-Blue was key to 
securing a Pan-Blue majority in the legislature elected in 
2001.  During those elections the Kuomintang (KMT) nominated 
seven candidates and, with 29.8 percent of the vote, won five 
seats.  The PFP grabbed 23.3 percent of the 2001 vote, but 
was less successful in distributing votes among its slate of 
five candidates, filling only three seats.   The Pan-Green 
was able to garner over 40 percent of the vote in 2001, most 
of which (34.4 percent) went to Democratic Progressive Party 
(DPP) candidates who captured five seats. Pan-Blue support 
remained strong in the 2004 presidential election when the 
Lien-Song ticket gained 55 percent of the vote, but the DPP 
believes it can retain support from the 45 percent of the 
electorate that voted for President Chen Shui-bian.  To 
consolidate its vote, the Pan-Blue camp has nominated this 
year a total of ten candidates, down from thirteen in 2001, 
with the reduction coming from PFP, which is nominating only 
two incumbents and one failed candidate. The Pan-Green has 
nominated a total of nine candidates again this year; the DPP 
upped its number from six to seven while its Pan-Green ally, 
the Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU), lowered its nominations 
from three to two. 
 
3. (C) Leading pollsters on Taiwan tell AIT that the race for 
the top six seats in Taoyuan county looks quite stable, with 
the KMT taking two seats, the PFP one, and the DPP three. 
All polls indicate, however, that competition for the 
remaining seven seats will be fierce as the distance between 
the slate of candidates ranking seven through sixteen is 
smaller than the polling margin of error.  The battle for 
these remaining seven seats will be waged primarily between 
candidates from either the KMT or DPP.  A strong showing from 
the TSU or PFP could displace one of the lower ranked 
candidates from their larger coalition partners, but it would 
probably not disturb the projected distribution of seats 
(seven to six) between the Pan-Blue and Pan-Green camps. 
 
The DPP: Poised To Make Slight Gains 
------------------------------------ 
 
4. (C) The DPP upped its number of nominations for 
legislative seats this year because of confidence that it can 
continue to expand its vote in the county, according to DPP 
Taoyuan County Executive Director Chiou Chuang-tien.  DPP 
Survey Center Director Pan Yi-Shuan told AIT on November 10 
that internal party polls show there is enough support in 
Taoyuan to gain six of the DPP's seven candidates seats if 
the vote is evenly distributed.  Although the DPP would like 
to see all seven candidates win a seat, Chiou said most 
likely the party will have to drop support for the weakest 
candidate in the final week of the campaign and enforce a 
distribution of votes (peipiao) from the two front runners to 
the sixth candidate.  Chiou is confident that both candidates 
and DPP supporters in Taoyuan will be willing to put aside 
their personal interests and follow party directives to 
ensure the DPP gets six seats. 
 
5. (C) Chiou indicated that the three DPP front runners are 
two incumbents, Peng Tien-fu and Chiu Chui-chen, and former 
candidate for Taoyuan county magistrate, Peng Shao-jin.  The 
two Peng's are expected to get a large enough share of the 
ethnic Hakka vote to guarantee them seats.  Two other DPP 
incumbents, Lee Chen-nan and Chen Tsung-yi, have strong 
grass-roots organizations and substantial finances, according 
to Taoyuan County Vice Magistrate Huang Min-kong, and should 
pull through giving the DPP another two seats. Lee Yue-chin, 
Mayor of Ping-Chen city, and Guo Jung-tsung, an incumbent, 
have smaller bases of support and are likely to be the ones 
fighting fiercely with each other to squeeze into the 
thirteenth seat.  Executive Director Chiou said the party is 
concerned that if the DPP vote is spread out too thinly, 
especially between the sixth and seventh ranking DPP 
candidates, one of the two TSU candidates could beat out a 
DPP candidate or could draw off enough Green votes to allow 
another Pan-Blue candidate to squeeze into the top thirteen. 
The KMT: Holding its Own 
------------------------ 
 
6. (C) The KMT is confident that six of the seven candidates 
running under its banner will gain a seat, according to KMT 
Taoyuan County Chairman Fu Chung-hsiung. In Taoyuan, the KMT 
was conservative in its nomination, putting forward only six 
party members -- the seventh, Chen Li-ling, is a New Party 
(NP) member running under the KMT flag.  Unlike in many other 
areas of the island, the KMT is not plagued by a plethora of 
breakaway KMT members running as independents.  The KMT 
front-runners assured of seats, according to Fu, are 
incumbent Chu Fung-chih who enjoys a strong base of support 
among the ethnic Mainland community of retired military 
families, and a young newcomer Wu Chih-yang, the son of KMT 
Vice Chairman Wu Bo-hsiung, who has strong support from his 
father's local Hakka political base. Yang Li-huan and Chang 
Chang-tsair, two incumbents, also enjoy a strong local base 
and will be getting enough financial support from the KMT, 
according to Fu, to gain a seat. The other two, incumbent 
Chen Gen-te and Kui-shan district chief Lin Cheng-fung, have 
local bases that will be contested by the TSU's Chen 
Chiang-shun and independent Luo Huan-lu, respectively.  Vice 
Magistrate Huang assessed that the two KMT candidates, 
nevertheless, have enough backing to overcome the challenge. 
Political observers in Taoyuan say that Chen Li-ling is not 
competitive as NP support in 2001 was only 15,000 votes and 
these votes are likely to go to Cheng Chin-ling, a PFP 
candidate who has strong support from the ethnic Mainland 
community. 
 
The PFP: On the Verge of Collapse 
--------------------------------- 
 
7. (C) PFP Taoyuan Vice Chairman Yang Chuh-Hsiung says his 
party expects overall support to contract by 20 to 30 percent 
from 2001 levels.  This time he predicted the party will only 
garner about 140,000 votes.  By reducing the slate of 
candidates to three, the PFP hopes to preserve its three 
seats, but even Yang conceded that would be a Herculean task. 
 For starters, the PFP would have to distribute votes from 
its star incumbent, Sun Ta-chien, who was the single largest 
vote winner in all of Taiwan in 2001 and remains a highly 
popular figure.  If Sun takes close to the 90,000 votes he 
received in 2001, a shrinking PFP pie only gives about 50,000 
votes to distribute between the two remaining candidates, 
making it unlikely both would be able to win a seat.  Even if 
Sun supporters decide to help other candidates, Chiu 
Chang-liang, an incumbent breakaway from the PFP running as a 
Non-Partisan Solidarity Union (NSU) member, is likely to draw 
many PFP votes, according to Vice Magistrate Huang.  With a 
reduced support base, poor track record in distributing 
votes, and competition from former PFP members, the PFP 
appears unlikely to retain its three seats. At best, it can 
hope that Sun will distribute enough votes to incumbent Cheng 
Chin-ling to raise Cheng over the bar. 
 
Comment: Building a Majority One Seat at a Time? 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
8. (C) The race in Taoyuan is emblematic of the contrasting 
strategies and positions of the Pan-Blue and Pan-Green forces 
in the north of the island.  Although the Pan-Blue has taken 
a conservative nomination approach and retains significant 
grass-roots support, it is poised to retain only a slight 
edge with a reduced margin of victory that will come 
primarily at the expense of the PFP.  The DPP, on the other 
hand, has made more aggressive nominations in the north 
because it sees room to grow there.  By picking up an 
additional seat in Taoyuan, the DPP will be taking a step 
toward expanding both the Pan-Green coalition's 
representation in the LY and the DPP's share within the 
Pan-Green coalition.  To do so, however, it must succeed in 
persuading its followers to allocate their votes (peipiao). 
PAAL