US embassy cable - 04TAIPEI3708

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 003708 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/RSP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - 
ROBERT PALLADINO 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, KPAO, TW, Foreign Policy, Cross Strait Politics 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: RICE NOMINATION AND 
WASHINGTON'S CROSS-STRAIT POLICY 
 
 
A) "United States' New Diplomatic Team and Future 
Changes in Cross-Strait Relations" 
 
The centrist, pro-status quo "China Times" observed in 
an editorial (11/19): 
 
". Will President George W. Bush's policy during his 
second term be favorable for Taiwan?  While commenting 
on Bush's nomination of Condoleezza Rice as the new 
Secretary of State, many people believe that there 
 
SIPDIS 
should not be many changes [in Bush's policy].  But an 
in-depth study would show that Rice's personal traits 
as a realist would prevail over her personal traits as 
an idealist and the role Rice will play as the 
Secretary of State will also differ from her role as 
 
SIPDIS 
the National Security Advisor. 
 
"It is generally believed that religious conservatism 
will dictate Bush's second term.  Being a devout 
Christian herself, Rice also received academic training 
in international politics during the Cold War era, so 
she is clearly aware of the importance of strategic 
reality.  Given the fact that the United States already 
has a lot of issues that need to be resolved, including 
the Israeli-Palestinian situation, the aftermath of the 
war in Iraq, and the crisis on the Korean Peninsula, 
there is really no need for Washington to confront 
China just for the sake of advocating democratic and 
moral values. . 
 
"When it comes to Taiwan, [it is evident that] Beijing 
has put the focus of all its foreign relations on 
preventing Taiwan independence.  Such a development 
overlaps with the United States' cross-Strait policy 
for the next four years.  Learning from its experience 
over the past two years, the Bush administration must 
make sure that its mechanism `to control the rise of 
tension' [across the Taiwan Strait] will function 
accordingly.  As the real policy planner for 
Washington's policy that `neither side of the Taiwan 
Strait can unilaterally change the status quo,' Rice 
will surely act very cautiously in implementing the 
policy, [and] not allow the actions of one side to 
provoke the other side to take action unfavorable [to 
the status quo].  We must say this in a very candid 
manner: in the next four years, [Washington's] pressure 
will likely fall on the Taiwan side, and the pressure 
will increase as Taiwan pushes for a new constitution. 
." 
 
B) "Bush Needs Stability in Asia" 
 
The pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" 
editorialized (11/19): 
 
". It is generally believed that, under Rice's 
leadership, the new decision-making team will reshuffle 
the State Department to eliminate opposition and carry 
out Bush's hawkish policies. 
 
"At the moment, Rice should review the State 
Department's China policy and handle multilateral 
relations in East Asia with caution.  Moreover, she 
should adjust the methods employed by Powell, who has 
made excessive concessions to China over the past six 
months, and resume the global strategic arrangement 
adopted at the beginning of Bush's first term. . 
 
"An important goal for Bush in reshuffling his 
administration would be to resolve long-standing battle 
between the State Department, White House and Pentagon. 
More importantly, Bush needs to redirect the US' policy 
in Asia, where it seems to have lost its direction to 
such an extent that it was hurting its allies in order 
to make goodwill gestures to its strategic competitor. 
 
"The main forum for the US to re-establish order in 
East Asia will be on the sidelines of the APEC summit, 
where Bush will have the opportunity of speaking 
individually with many Asian leaders.  We hope that 
Bush will make the best use of this opportunity to warn 
its competitor while re-emphasizing its commitments to 
allies like Japan and Taiwan." 
 
C) "Frank Talks Essential to Security in the Strait" 
 
Liu Kuan-teh, a Taipei-based political commentator, 
said in the pro-independence, English-language "Taipei 
Times" (11/19): 
 
"The fact is, any speculation on whether the rotation 
of people dealing in Asian affairs in the new Bush 
Cabinet will bring about a huge change of policy toward 
the region would be an exaggeration.  From a global and 
regional strategic perspective, the second Bush team 
will stick with the old path and pursue an even tougher 
campaign against international terrorism.  When it 
comes to its influence in Asia, the new team will put 
North Korea on top of its priorities. 
 
"For both policies, Washington will need Beijing to 
cooperate.  But where does Taiwan fit into such a 
transforming international landscape?  The US stated 
quite clearly in its "Six Assurances" of 1982 that it 
would not be a mediator between Taiwan and China, and 
this policy has not changed.  However, the role of the 
mediator could be indirect.  Since the growing 
Taiwanese consciousness has met with China's closed- 
door policy, Washington has no choice but to play a 
more positive and constructive role in securing peace 
and stability across the Strait. 
 
"Therefore, initiating the resumption of cross-Strait 
dialogue constitutes the most urgent task for Rice's 
new Asian team.  Since President Chen Shui-bian has 
suggested the establishment of a peace and stability 
framework, as well as a non-military buffer zone in the 
Taiwan Strait, the Bush administration should utilize 
every possible channel to encourage leaders from 
Beijing to go to the negotiation table.  The meeting 
between Bush and Chinese President Hu Jintao at the 
APEC summit this week is the most appropriate timing 
for Washington to ring the bell. . 
 
"Only through establishing frank, candid and 
institutionalized channels of communication between 
Taipei and Washington can the second Bush 
administration continue to uphold its commitment to the 
security of Taiwan." 
 
PAAL