US embassy cable - 04CALCUTTA449

UNCLAS CALCUTTA 000449 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR SA/INS, EAP/IMBS AND INR 
NEW DELHI FOR POL AND DAO 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL, MOPS, PINS, PGOV, BM, IN, GOI, India-Burma 
SUBJECT: MANIPUR: INDIAN ARMY PRESSURE NEAR BURMA BORDER 
 
REF: A) CALCUTTA 0337, B) CALCUTTA 0294, C) CALCUTTA 0135 AND PREVIOUS 
 
1. (SBU) On October 26, the Indian Army launched a 
counter-insurgency exercise in the Chandel and Churachandpur 
districts of Manipur, a Northeast Indian state bordering Burma. 
Remaining initially tightlipped, an Army spokesman finally 
announced on November 6 that more than 100 rebel bases had been 
attacked and that the Army had re-established control over Sajik 
Tampak, where about 2,000 rebels had been camping.  The Manipuri 
separatist insurgent camps bordering Burma belong primarily to 
the United National Liberation Front (UNLF), the People's 
Liberation Army (PLA) and the Peoples' Revolutionary Army of 
Kangleipak (PREPAK).   On the Burmese side of the border, these 
and other Northeast Indian insurgent outfits are believed to 
have bases.  Press reports suggest that Burmese troops are 
maintaining a heightened state of vigilance on their side of the 
boundary, to check militants from entering the country. 
 
2. (SBU) A leader of the Manipur Congress, the ruling party in 
Imphal, Manipur's capital, told post that the Army operation 
aims at "cleansing" the border area by driving away or detaining 
militants, while keeping casualties to a minimum.    Officials 
estimate about a couple of dozen militants killed, although some 
contacts said the tally may be even less.  On November 9, the 
UNLF issued a statement dismissing Army claims as propaganda. 
The outfit said that insurgents had successfully fought off 
attempts by the military to infiltrate their bases.  The UNLF 
also claims to have inflicted heavy casualties on security 
forces in Churachandpur on November 13, killing 12 Army 
personnel.  In turn, the Army has denied this. 
 
3. (SBU) On November 20, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is 
scheduled to visit Manipur, a state torn by insurgency and 
popular resentment against the GOI.  Singh's program includes 
formally vacating the historic Kangla Fort in Imphal, occupied 
since 1949 by the Assam Rifles forces, and handing it over to 
the state government.  The occupation of the fort has been a 
source of much popular anguish, and Singh's move is intended to 
engender goodwill.  (Septel will report in greater detail on the 
ongoing internal problems in Manipur.) 
 
4. (SBU) COMMENT:  Although highly detailed information is 
difficult to come by, so far the Army exercise appears low-grade 
despite the "propaganda war" by both the security forces and the 
militants.   Army personnel first moved into the forested, 
mountainous Sajik Tampak area as long ago as April, on the eve 
of Parliamentary elections (Reftels).   Significantly, the 
launch of the current operation coincided with Burmese General 
Than Shwe's October 25-29 India visit.  The exercise also 
precedes PM Singh's scheduled tour, as well as the Indo-ASEAN 
car rally -- to be inaugurated on November 22 -- with as many as 
60 teams competing on a route that starts in Guwahati, Assam, 
exits India through Manipur's border checkpoint at Moreh, and 
continues through Southeast Asia to the finish line in 
Singapore.  The GOI is hoping this rally will showcase a 
significant new trade route into the northeast, and they 
recognize that any security incidents could be a severe setback 
to these ambitions.   END COMMENT. 
 
SIBLEY