US embassy cable - 01HARARE3730

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 HARARE 003730 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 

E.O. 12958: DECL. 12/04/11 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PINR, ZI 
SUBJECT:  A/S KANSTEINER DELIVERS MESSAGE OF SUPPORT TO 
OPPOSITION AND CIVIL SOCIETY REPRESENTATIVES 
 
REF:  A) HARARE 3401 B) HARARE 3691 C) HARARE 3631 
 
CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF MATT HARRINGTON. 
REASONS:  1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
1.  (C) DURING HIS DECEMBER 10-11 VISIT TO HARARE, AF 
ASSISTANT SECRETARY MET WITH A RANGE OF INDIVIDUALS OUTSIDE 
GOVERNMENT, INCLUDING MDC LEADER MORGAN TSVANGIRAI, SUPREME 
COURT JUSTICE WILSON SANDURA, UNDP RESREP VICTOR ANGELO, 
COMMERCIAL FARMERS UNION (CFU) OFFICIALS, AND 
REPRESENTATIVES OF HUMAN RIGHTS GROUPS AND OTHER NGOS. 
KANSTEINER HEARD A CONSISTENT REFRAIN THAT ZIMBABWE'S 
POLITICAL CRISIS AND ECONOMIC MESS WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN 
IN THE RUN-UP TO THE ELECTION AND THAT THE GOZ/ZANU-PF ARE 
EMPLOYING A RANGE OF TACTICS TO INCREASE THEIR PROSPECTS IN 
NEXT YEAR'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION AND LIMIT INTERNATIONAL 
SCRUTINY OF THEIR ACTIONS.  ON ZDERA, TSVANGIRAI RECOGNIZED 
THE THREAT OF IMPOSING RESTRICTIONS ON THE RULING ELITE 
COULD BE MORE EFFECTIVE THAN THE ACTION, BUT HE HOPED THE 
USG WOULD IMPLEMENT AT LEAST ONE RESTRICTION TO DEMONSTRATE 
THAT IT MEANS BUSINESS.  A PROMINENT HUMAN RIGHTS ACTIVIST 
ASSERTED THAT, SINCE THE JUDICIARY HAS BEEN COMPROMISED, 
ZIMBABWEANS NOW MUST COUNT ON THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  03730  01 OF 05  141045Z 
TO HOLD THE ZANU-PF LEADERSHIP ACCOUNTABLE FOR ITS ACTIONS. 
UNDP RESREP REPORTED THAT WFP IS READY TO MOVE FORWARD WITH 
HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE, BUT THE GOZ HAS NOT SIGNED THE 
LETTER OF UNDERSTANDING BECAUSE IT DISAGREES WITH WFP'S 
ANALYSIS OF THE CAUSES OF THE FOOD CRISIS, AND BECAUSE THE 
TWO SIDES HAVE NOT AGREED ON THE DELIVERY MECHANISM. (NOTE: 
THE LETTER OF UNDERSTANDING WAS SIGNED SUBSEQUENT TO THIS 
MEETING.)  END SUMMARY. 
 
MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC) 
------------------------------------ 
 
2.  (C) MDC PRESIDENT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI, ACCOMPANIED BY 
DEPUTY SECRETARY-GENERAL GIFT CHIMANIKIRE AND ELECTIONS 
DIRECTOR PAUL THEMBA-NYATHI, TOLD KANSTEINER THAT HIS PARTY 
IS UNABLE TO CAMPAIGN IN CERTAIN AREAS OF THE COUNTRY, 
PARTICULARLY MASHONALAND CENTRAL AND PARTS OF MASHONALAND 
WEST.  ASKED HOW THE MDC GOT ITS MESSAGE TO THE RESIDENTS 
OF THOSE AREAS, TSVANGIRAI SAID SUPPORTERS GO IN UNDER THE 
COVER OF NIGHT TO DISTRIBUTE PAMPHLETS, NOT, HE POINTED 
OUT, AN APPROACH ONE WOULD EXPECT IN A DEMOCRATIC SYSTEM. 
HE ADDED THAT THE BREAK BETWEEN THE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS 
IN JUNE 2000 AND NEXT YEAR'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION HAS 
ENABLED THE PARTY TO PENETRATE AREAS FORMERLY CLOSED TO IT, 
AND GIVEN THEM TIME TO CONVINCE ZIMBABWEANS THAT THE ONLY 
WAY TO STOP THE VIOLENCE IS TO VOTE OUT THE CURRENT 
GOVERNMENT.  TSVANGIRAI PREDICTED THAT THE MDC WOULD HAVE 
LOST IF THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION HAD BEEN HELD IN JUNE 
2000.  THE PARTY'S VICTORY IN THE CHEGUTU MAYORAL RACE IS A 
GOOD EXAMPLE OF THE BENEFITS OF THAT BREAK IN THE ACTION, 
AND PROVIDED A HUGE PSYCHOLOGICAL BOOST TO THE PARTY AND 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  03730  01 OF 05  141045Z 
ITS SUPPORTERS. 
 
3.  (C) TSVANGIRAI SAID THE CHALLENGE FOR THE MDC IS TO 
STAY FOCUSED ON WINNING THE ELECTION AND NOT ALLOW ITSELF 
TO BE DISTRACTED BY INTERNATIONAL INITIATIVES SUCH AS THE 
SADC EFFORT WHICH, FROM THE GOZ PERSPECTIVE, ARE ONLY MEANT 
TO BUY TIME.  HE REPORTED THAT ZANU-PF ELDER STATESMAN 
EDDISON ZVOBGO'S ESTRANGEMENT FROM MUGABE IS PROVING 
HELPFUL TO THE MDC'S PROSPECTS IN PIVOTAL MASVINGO 
PROVINCE.  ASKED WHETHER ZVOBGO, WHO IS THE KINGMAKER IN 
MASVINGO, IS TELLING HIS SUPPORTERS TO VOTE FOR THE MDC, 
TSVANGIRAI SAID HE IS TELLING THEM TO GO AND VOTE, BUT NOT 
 
SIPDIS 
FOR MUGABE. 
 
4.  (C) THE MDC LEADER RAISED ZDERA, SAYING HE THOUGHT ITS 
CONGRESSIONAL PASSAGE CAUGHT THE GOZ BY SURPRISE, AND KEY 
LEADERS ARE IN A PANIC AT THE POSSIBILITY THEY MIGHT BE 
TARGETED.  HE RECOGNIZED THAT THE THREAT MAY BE MORE 
EFFECTIVE THAN THE IMPOSITION, BUT HE THOUGHT IT MIGHT BE 
NECESSARY FOR THE USG TO IMPLEMENT AT LEAST ONE RESTRICTION 
IN ADVANCE OF THE ELECTION TO DEMONSTRATE THAT IT MEANS 
BUSINESS.  KANSTEINER RESPONDED THAT WE DO HAVE FLEXIBILITY 
IN SELECTING WHOM WOULD BE TARGETED AND IN OUR CHOICE OF 
EITHER TRAVEL RESTRICTIONS OR ASSET SEIZURE, OR BOTH.  WHAT 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ3690 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  03730  02 OF 05  141045Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
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                  ------------------4B750D  141045Z /38 
P 140948Z DEC 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0546 
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
AMEMBASSY OSLO 
AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 
AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM 
AMEMBASSY KINGSTON 
AMEMBASSY ABUJA 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 05 HARARE 003730 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  03730  02 OF 05  141045Z 
E.O. 12958: DECL. 12/04/11 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PINR, ZI 
SUBJECT:  A/S KANSTEINER DELIVERS MESSAGE OF SUPPORT TO 
OPPOSITION AND CIVIL SOCIETY REPRESENTATIVES 
 
THE USG WANTS TO AVOID, HOWEVER, IS GIVING MUGABE AN 
EFFECTIVE RALLYING CRY.  TSVANGIRAI SUGGESTED  KANSTEINER 
COULD LESSEN THAT RISK BY EMPHASIZING IN HIS PRESS 
CONFERENCE LATER THAT DAY THAT ZDERA DOES NOT IMPOSE 
SANCTIONS AGAINST THE ZIMBABWEAN PEOPLE, WHICH THE USG 
CONTINUES TO HELP WITH SIGNIFICANT LEVELS OF ASSISTANCE. 
 
5.  (C) THEMBA-NYATHI URGED THE UNITED STATES TO COORDINATE 
CLOSELY WITH ZIMBABWE'S SADC NEIGHBORS.  WE ARE DOING THAT 
ON SEVERAL LEVELS, KANSTEINER REPLIED.  HE SAID HE HAD MET 
AT UNGA WITH SADC FOREIGN MINISTERS, AND THAT ALL OF THEM, 
WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF ANGOLA AND NAMIBIA, AGREED 
WITH THE U.S. APPROACH TOWARD ZIMBABWE.  PRESIDENTS BUSH 
AND MBEKI HAD ALSO HAD A GOOD DISCUSSION ABOUT ZIMBABWE 
AND, ON THE MARGINS, HE HAD PRESSED FM ZUMA ON THE 
IMPORTANCE OF SOUTH AFRICA TAKING A MORE ACTIVE ROLE IN 
ADDRESSING THE CRISIS CONSUMING ITS NORTHERN NEIGHBOR. 
 
6.  (C) TURNING TO THE ELECTORAL PROCESS, THEMBA-NYATHI 
RECALLED  MINISTER OF JUSTICE CHINAMASA'S STATEMENT IN 
PARLIAMENT THAT THE GOZ DID NOT HAVE THE RESOURCES TO 
PURCHASE TRANSLUCENT BALLOT BOXES BUT WOULD ACCEPT 
DONATIONS FROM THE UNDP FOR THIS PURPOSE, AND HE URGED THAT 
WE CALL CHINAMASA'S BLUFF.  THE AMBASSADOR AGREED TO MAKE 
SUCH AN OFFER TO THE UNDP (WHICH SUBSEQUENTLY OFFERED UNDP 
FUNDING TO CHINAMASA).  POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF RECALLED 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  03730  02 OF 05  141045Z 
THAT ELECTORAL SUPERVISORY COMMISSION (ESC) CHAIRMAN GULA- 
NDEBELE HAD DEMONSTRATED A WILLINGNESS IN A RECENT MEETING 
WITH US TO ACCEPT THE INPUT OF POLITICAL PARTIES.  IF THE 
ESC WAS SERIOUS ABOUT SUCH AN OFFER, TSVANGIRAI REJOINED, 
IT WOULD INVITE PARTY REPRESENTATIVES TO SIT ON THE 
COMMISSION.  TWO ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS, THEMBA-NYATHI 
COMMENTED, ARE THE ESC'S ABDICATION OF MUCH OF ITS 
AUTHORITY TO THE PARTISAN REGISTRAR-GENERAL, AND THE 
ELECTORAL ACT'S VESTING OF TOO MUCH POWER IN THE PRESIDENT, 
WHO IS ONE OF THE CONTESTANTS. 
 
THE VIEW FROM CIVIL SOCIETY 
--------------------------- 
 
7.  (C) IN A LUNCH WITH HUMAN RIGHTS AND OTHER CIVIC 
ORGANIZATIONS, KANSTEINER NOTED THE CRUCIAL ROLE THEY PLAY 
IN A DEMOCRACY, PRAISED THEM FOR THEIR COURAGE UNDER 
DIFFICULT CONDITIONS, AND EXPRESSED U.S. SUPPORT FOR THEIR 
EFFORTS. 
 
8.  (C) REGINALD MATCHABE-HOVE, CHAIRMAN OF THE ZIMBABWE 
ELECTION SUPPORT NETWORK (ZESN), EXPRESSED SERIOUS CONCERN 
ABOUT THE ELECTORAL ENVIRONMENT AND THE NEGATIVE IMPACT OF 
PROPOSED AMENDMENTS TO THE ELECTORAL ACT.  PROVISIONS OF 
PARTICULAR CONCERN WERE REQUIREMENTS THAT: ONLY CIVIL 
SERVANTS WOULD SERVE AS MONITORS; ALL FUNDING FOR VOTER 
EDUCATION MUST GO THROUGH THE GOZ-APPOINTED ESC; THE 
REGISTRAR-GENERAL AND HIS OFFICERS WILL BE EMPOWERED TO 
ALTER THE VOTERS ROLL AT ANY TIME; AND ONLY DIPLOMATS AND 
SOLDIERS WOULD BE ABLE TO VOTE BY ABSENTEE BALLOT, 
POTENTIALLY DISENFRANCHISING UP TO ONE MILLION ZIMBABWEANS 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  03730  02 OF 05  141045Z 
LIVING ABROAD.  EILEEN SAWYER, EXECUTIVE-DIRECTOR OF THE 
LEGAL RESOURCES FOUNDATION, SAID THE CITIZENSHIP ACT, WHICH 
REQUIRES ZIMBABWEAN DUAL CITIZENS TO RENOUNCE THEIR FOREIGN 
CITIZENSHIP, COULD DISENFRANCHISE UP TO TWO MILLION PEOPLE, 
PRIMARILY COMMERCIAL FARMWORKERS OF MOZAMBICAN, MALAWIAN, 
AND BOTSWANAN ORIGIN. 
 
9.  (C) TONY REELER, DIRECTOR OF THE WELL-RESPECTED HUMAN 
RIGHTS ORGANIZATION, AMANI TRUST, SAID IT IS CLEAR FROM THE 
PENDING LEGISLATION THAT GOVERNMENT IS TRYING TO CLOSE DOWN 
PUBLIC SPACE.  IN ADDITION TO THE BILLS DESCRIBED ABOVE, 
REELER DECRIED THE PENDING ACCESS TO INFORMATION AND 
PROTECTION OF PRIVACY ACT, WHICH COULD DO AWAY WITH 
INDEPENDENT JOURNALISTS, AND THE "DRACONIAN" PUBLIC ORDER 
AND SECURITY BILL, WHICH WILL GREATLY INCREASE THE POWERS 
OF GOVERNMENT TO SQUELCH DISSENT.  ACCORDING TO REELER, 
VIOLENCE IS SPREADING, NOT DIMINISHING, THROUGHOUT THE 
COUNTRY.  THE ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS PERPETRATING THE 
PREPONDERANCE OF THE VIOLENCE HAVE SET UP BASE CAMPS 
NATIONWIDE, AND MOST OF THEM HAVE BEEN DRAWN FROM THE 
GOVERNMENT'S RECENTLY-INAUGURATED NATIONAL YOUTH SERVICE 
TRAINING PROGRAM.  IN ADDITION, THE GOZ HAS ACCELERATED ITS 
CAMPAIGN AGAINST THE MDC AT EVERY LEVEL.  LYDIA ZIGOMO, 
PRESIDENT OF THE ZIMBABWE WOMEN LAWYERS' ASSOCIATION, SAID 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ3697 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  03730  03 OF 05  141046Z 
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                  ------------------4B7533  141046Z /38 
P 140948Z DEC 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0547 
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
AMEMBASSY OSLO 
AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 
AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM 
AMEMBASSY KINGSTON 
AMEMBASSY ABUJA 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 05 HARARE 003730 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  03730  03 OF 05  141046Z 
E.O. 12958: DECL. 12/04/11 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PINR, ZI 
SUBJECT:  A/S KANSTEINER DELIVERS MESSAGE OF SUPPORT TO 
OPPOSITION AND CIVIL SOCIETY REPRESENTATIVES 
 
IT IS HARD TO GET A GOOD SENSE OF THE SCOPE OF THE 
VIOLENCE, AND TO MEASURE ITS FULL IMPACT, BECAUSE SO MANY 
RURAL AREAS HAVE BEEN DECLARED OFF-LIMITS TO ANYONE OTHER 
THAN ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS. 
 
10.  (C) KANSTEINER ASKED AT WHAT POINT CIVIL SOCIETY WOULD 
DECIDE THAT THE ELECTION CANNOT POSSIBLY BE FREE AND FAIR. 
ANDREW NGONGO, DIRECTOR OF TRANSPARENCY 
INTERNATIONAL/ZIMBABWE, SAID THE FOCUS OF MOST CIVIC 
ORGANIZATIONS HAS BEEN ON PRESSING THE GOZ TO ABIDE BY 
MINIMUM ELECTORAL STANDARDS, SUCH AS AN INDEPENDENT 
ELECTION COMMISSION AND BALANCED ACCESS TO THE MEDIA, BUT 
HE AGREED THAT CIVIC GROUPS NEED TO CONSIDER THE POINT 
KANSTEINER RAISED.  NGO REPRESENTATIVES RECOGNIZED THAT THE 
MDC WAS COMMITTED TO PARTICIPATE IN THE ELECTIONS, COME 
WHAT MAY, AND THAT CIVIL SOCIETY COULD NOT UNDERCUT THEIR 
DECISION TO CONTEST. 
 
11.  (C) BRIAN KAGORO, A LEADING LAWYER AND COORDINATOR OF 
THE CRISIS IN ZIMBABWE TASK FORCE, DECLARED THAT THE GOZ IS 
PURSUING A "TOTAL STRATEGY" THAT WILL KEEP THEM IN POWER 
WELL BEYOND THE ELECTION.  THE RESTRICTIVE LAWS WILL REMAIN 
IN PLACE, YOUTHS IN THE NATIONAL SERVICE PROGRAM ARE 
RECEIVING MILITARY TRAINING, WAR VETERANS ARE BEING ISSUED 
GUNS; THESE ARE THE ACTIONS OF A GOVERNMENT PLANNING FOR 
THE LONGER TERM, NOT JUST FOR AN ELECTION WHICH IS ONLY 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  03730  03 OF 05  141046Z 
MONTHS AWAY.  GOVERNMENT, HE ASSERTED, IS "TRYING TO TAKE 
US BACK TO 1965 AND RESUSCITATE RHODESIA," BY CLOSING DOWN 
THE ECONOMY AND POLITICAL AND CIVIC SPACE.  REELER LAMENTED 
THAT ZIMBABWEANS CAN NO LONGER DEPEND ON THE COURTS TO ACT 
INDEPENDENTLY AND MUST NOW DEPEND ON THE INTERNATIONAL 
COMMUNITY TO HOLD ZANU-PF LEADERS ACCOUNTABLE FOR THEIR 
ACTIONS. 
 
JUSTICE SANDURA 
--------------- 
 
12.  (C) SUPREME COURT JUSTICE SANDURA IS ZIMBABWE'S SENIOR 
BLACK JUDGE AND HAS SERVED ON THE SUPREME COURT SINCE 1998. 
HE WAS WIDELY CONSIDERED THE LEADING CANDIDATE TO REPLACE 
FORMER CHIEF JUSTICE GUBBAY BEFORE THE GOVERNMENT'S MOVE TO 
STACK THE COUNTRY'S HIGHEST BENCH WITH SYMPATHETIC JURISTS. 
SANDURA WAS CONTEMPTUOUS OF HIS NEW COLLEAGUES' DECEMBER 3 
RULING ENDORSING THE CONSTITUTIONALITY OF THE FAST TRACK 
RESETTLEMENT PROGRAM AND AGREEING THAT THE RULE OF LAW HAD 
BEEN RESTORED ON COMMERCIAL FARMS (REF C).  THE RULE OF 
LAW, HE SAID, PREVAILS NOWHERE IN THIS COUNTRY, NOT ON 
COMMERCIAL FARMS AND NOT IN URBAN AREAS.  CHIEF JUSTICE 
CHIDYAUSIKU'S  JUDGMENT IN THE CASE WAS MERELY A POLITICAL 
STATEMENT WHICH IGNORED THE LEGAL ISSUES.  IN ORDER TO 
CLAIM THAT IT WAS ABIDING BY THE RULE OF LAW, THE GOZ HAD 
LEGALIZED THE OCCUPATION OF FARMS.  "HOW CAN YOU PASS A LAW 
SAYING THAT A TRESPASSER WHO COMES INTO YOUR HOUSE CAN STAY 
THERE UNTIL YOU FIND SOMEWHERE ELSE TO PUT HIM?"  THE 
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IS WHAT IS DRIVING FAST TRACK, 
SANDURA SAID, AS GIVING LAND TO THE PEOPLE IS THE ONLY 
ISSUE MUGABE HAS TO TALK ABOUT. 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  03730  03 OF 05  141046Z 
 
13.  (C) SANDURA DESCRIBED THE CAMPAIGN OF INTIMIDATION 
AGAINST THE JUDICIARY DURING THE PAST YEAR, INCLUDING THE 
INVASION OF THE SUPREME COURT IN DECEMBER 2000 AND THE 
THREATS BY WAR VETERANS TO KILL JUDGES IN THEIR HOMES. 
POINTING OUT THAT NOT A SINGLE GOVERNMENT MINISTER 
CRITICIZED THESE DEVELOPMENTS, SANDURA ASKED WHAT MESSAGE 
THAT SENT TO THE WAR VETERANS.  ASKED WHETHER HE OR OTHER 
MEMBERS OF THE SUPREME COURT HAD BEEN SUBJECTED TO 
ADDITIONAL INTIMIDATION SINCE GUBBAY'S FORCED RESIGNATION 
IN JULY, SANDURA SAID NO, BECAUSE THE GOZ HAD ACHIEVED ITS 
OBJECTIVE OF APPOINTING FOUR NEW JUSTICES WHO WILL DO WHAT 
THEY ARE TOLD. 
 
14.  (C) POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF NOTED THAT GOVERNMENT WAS 
LIKELY UNHAPPY WITH SANDURA'S RECENT DECISION THAT THE 
HARARE MAYORAL ELECTION MUST BE HELD BY FEBRUARY 11.  THE 
JUSTICE REPLIED THAT THE LAW WAS STRAIGHTFORWARD AND 
PROVIDED LITTLE LATITUDE FOR RULING ANY OTHER WAY.  HE WAS 
NOT SURE WHETHER THE GOZ WOULD ABIDE BY THE DECISION, 
HOWEVER.  INSTEAD, HE THOUGHT GOVERNMENT MIGHT TRY TO PASS 
ANOTHER LAW ALLOWING IT TO DELAY THE HARARE MUNICIPAL 
ELECTION INDEFINITELY, SINCE AN OVERWHELMING MDC VICTORY IN 
THE CAPITAL CITY IS A FOREGONE CONCLUSION.  AT A MINIMUM, 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ3700 
 
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      L-00     VCE-00   AC-01    NSAE-00  OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00 
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                  ------------------4B7554  141046Z /38 
P 140948Z DEC 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0548 
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
AMEMBASSY OSLO 
AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 
AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM 
AMEMBASSY KINGSTON 
AMEMBASSY ABUJA 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 04 OF 05 HARARE 003730 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  03730  04 OF 05  141046Z 
E.O. 12958: DECL. 12/04/11 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PINR, ZI 
SUBJECT:  A/S KANSTEINER DELIVERS MESSAGE OF SUPPORT TO 
OPPOSITION AND CIVIL SOCIETY REPRESENTATIVES 
 
SANDURA POINTED OUT, THE GOZ WOULD HAVE TO PASS RETROACTIVE 
LEGISLATION VALIDATING THE WORK OF THE COMMISSION -- SUCH 
AS THE CONTRACTS THEY SIGNED AND OTHER COMMITMENTS THEY 
ASSUMED -- IN CHARGE OF HARARE SINCE THE PREVIOUS MAYOR AND 
CITY COUNCIL WERE FORCED OUT ON CORRUPTION CHARGES IN 1999. 
 
15.  (C) ASKED WHAT IMPACT AN MDC VICTORY WOULD HAVE ON THE 
SUPREME COURT, SANDURA SAID HE SUSPECTS CHIDYAUSIKU MIGHT 
RESIGN, SINCE HE HAS ALIGNED HIMSELF SO CLOSELY WITH ZANU- 
PF.  HE ADDED THAT AN MDC PRESIDENT AND HIS CABINET WOULD 
HAVE GREAT DIFFICULTY GETTING ANY LAWS PASSED THROUGH 
PARLIAMENT, GIVEN ZANU-PF'S MAJORITY IN THE LEGISLATIVE 
BODY.  A PRESIDENT TSVANGIRAI WOULD HAVE LITTLE CHOICE, 
THEREFORE, BUT TO CALL FOR A NEW PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION, 
WHICH IS A CLEAR PRESIDENTIAL PREROGATIVE UNDER THE 
CONSTITUTION. 
 
COMMERCIAL FARMERS UNION 
------------------------ 
 
16.  (C) CFU ACTING PRESIDENT DOUG TAYLOR AND DEPUTY 
DIRECTOR MALCOLM VOWLES PROVIDED A BLEAK ASSESSMENT OF 
EXPECTED AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION.  MAIZE PRODUCTION WOULD 
LIKELY BE 25% OF NORMAL LEVELS, WHILE SOYBEAN AND WHEAT 
PLANTINGS ARE EACH DOWN 60%.  THE GOZ, VOWLES SAID, IS 
STILL IN DENIAL ABOUT THE LOOMING FOOD SHORTAGES. 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  03730  04 OF 05  141046Z 
ACCORDING TO VOWLES, WHEN THE SADC MINISTERIAL COMMITTEE 
(REF B) ASKED GOZ REPRESENTATIVES WHETHER ZIMBABWE WOULD 
EXPERIENCE A SIGNIFICANT MAIZE SHORTAGE, THEY INITIALLY 
TRIED TO DUCK THE QUESTION, THEN ONLY ADMITTED TO AN 
EXPECTED SHORTFALL NEXT APRIL. 
 
17.  (C) ASKED WHETHER THERE HAD BEEN ANY REDUCTION IN 
VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION ON THE FARMS, VOWLES SAID "NOT 
THAT WE'VE SEEN."  PROBLEMS ARISE WHEN PROPERTY-OWNERS 
CONFRONT THE SQUATTERS OR TRY TO PLANT, SO MANY FARMERS ARE 
STAYING ON THEIR FARMS WITHOUT CULTIVATING THEIR FIELDS. 
KANSTEINER ASKED WHETHER SETTLERS ARE LEAVING OCCUPIED 
PROPERTIES TO RETURN TO THEIR COMMUNAL LANDS.  VOWLES HAD 
HEARD OF ONE OR TWO CASES BUT NOTHING THAT COULD BE CALLED 
A PATTERN.  ASKED HOW THE SQUATTERS SURVIVE, VOWLES SAID BY 
SELLING FIREWOOD, POACHING, AND EXTORTION.  ANOTHER SOURCE 
OF INCOME, TAYLOR ADDED, IS PEOPLE WITH JOBS IN NEARBY 
TOWNS WHO PAY THE SQUATTERS TO SIT ON PLOTS OF LAND THEY 
ARE HOPING TO ACQUIRE UNDER FAST TRACK. 
 
18.  (C) VOWLES ASKED FOR USG ASSISTANCE ON ONE ISSUE. 
THERE WAS A BLATANT CONTRADICTION, HE SAID, BETWEEN THE 
SUPREME COURT'S MAJOR RULING ON LAND ON DECEMBER 21, 2000, 
AND ITS LATEST DECISION.  THE CFU'S LAWYERS ARE NOW DOING A 
LEGAL ANALYSIS OF THE CONTRADICTIONS, AND HAVE ASKED THE 
INTERNATIONAL BAR ASSOCIATION TO ASSIST IN THAT PROCESS. 
ANYTHING THE U.S. COULD DO TO REINFORCE THIS EFFORT WOULD 
BE GREATLY APPRECIATED, VOWLES SAID.  KANSTEINER SAID HE 
WOULD BE GLAD TO TOUCH BASE WITH THE AMERICAN BAR 
ASSOCIATION AND ENCOURAGE IT TO BE HELPFUL. 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  03730  04 OF 05  141046Z 
UNDP RESIDENT REPRESENTATIVE 
---------------------------- 
 
19.  (C) UNDP RESREP VICTOR ANGELO TOLD KANSTEINER THAT 
ZIMBABWE IS JUST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE ROAD IN TERMS OF 
POLITICAL CRISIS AND ECONOMIC HARDSHIP.  ACCESS TO FOOD IS 
ALREADY BECOMING DIFFICULT IN RURAL AREAS.  FARMERS ARE 
EITHER HOLDING ONTO THEIR GRAIN OR FEEDING IT TO THEIR 
ANIMALS BECAUSE OF THE LOW PRICES BEING OFFERED BY 
GOVERNMENT.  ASKED WHETHER THE GOZ HAS SUFFICIENT RESOURCES 
TO IMPORT GRAIN OVER THE NEXT THREE MONTHS, ANGELO SAID THE 
FOREX SHORTAGE POSES A SIGNIFICANT OBSTACLE.  THEY HAVE 
RECENTLY IMPORTED 100,000 TONS OF MAIZE FROM SOUTH AFRICA, 
WHICH WILL ONLY MAKE THE LOOMING MAIZE SHORTAGE "LESS 
DRAMATIC."  WFP IS READY TO MOVE, BUT THE GOZ HAS NOT 
SIGNED THE LETTER OF UNDERSTANDING (LOU) BECAUSE IT 
DISAGREES WITH WFP'S ANALYSIS OF THE CAUSES OF THE FOOD 
CRISIS AND BECAUSE THE TWO SIDES HAVE YET TO AGREE ON A 
DELIVERY MECHANISM.  WFP'S POSITION ON THE LATTER POINT IS 
CLEAR, ACCORDING TO ANGELO: THAT WFP MUST MAINTAIN CONTROL 
OVER FOOD DELIVERIES, WHICH CANNOT BE USED BY EITHER MAJOR 
POLITICAL PARTY TO LOBBY FOR VOTES.  IF THE LOU WERE SIGNED 
TODAY, ANGELO SAID WFP COULD HAVE AN OPERATION IN PLACE 
WITHIN TWO WEEKS, AND WOULD BEGIN BY DRAWING DOWN SOME 
 
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      L-00     VCE-00   AC-01    NSAE-00  OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00 
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                  ------------------4B755C  141046Z /38 
P 140948Z DEC 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0549 
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
AMEMBASSY OSLO 
AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 
AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM 
AMEMBASSY KINGSTON 
AMEMBASSY ABUJA 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 05 OF 05 HARARE 003730 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
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PAGE 02        HARARE  03730  05 OF 05  141046Z 
E.O. 12958: DECL. 12/04/11 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PINR, ZI 
SUBJECT:  A/S KANSTEINER DELIVERS MESSAGE OF SUPPORT TO 
OPPOSITION AND CIVIL SOCIETY REPRESENTATIVES 
 
STOCKS IN MOZAMBIQUE.  (NOTE:  THE LOU HAS BEEN SIGNED 
SUBSEQUENTLY, WITH THE GOZ AGREEING TO WFP TERMS.) 
 
20.  (C) TURNING TO INTERNAL POLITICS, ANGELO SAID A 
GROWING NUMBER OF PEOPLE WITHIN ZANU-PF REALIZE THE RULING 
PARTY IS ON A SUICIDAL PATH, BUT THEY ARE NOT WILLING TO 
STAND UP TO PRESIDENT MUGABE.  POLICY IS DETERMINED BY A 
SMALL GROUP OF HARDLINERS AROUND MUGABE, WHO ARE ENERGETIC 
AND VOCAL.  ANGELO INCLUDED IN THIS GROUP INFORMATION 
MINISTER JONATHAN MOYO; JUSTICE MINISTER PATRICK CHINAMASA; 
LOCAL GOVERNMENT MINISTER IGNATIUS CHOMBO ("VERY TOUGH AND 
AMBITIOUS, A STRATEGIC THINKER, COMES FROM THE SAME REGION 
AS MUGABE"); POLICE COMMISSIONER AUGUSTINE CHIHURI; AIR 
FORCE COMMANDER PERENCE SHIRI; AND CHARLES UTETE ("A KEY 
PLAYER; BECAUSE OF HIS TRAINING IN THE U.S., HE UNDERSTANDS 
THE NEED TO COMPROMISE AND WOULD BE READY TO DO BUSINESS.") 
ASKED WHETHER THE MEMBERS OF THIS GROUP WOULD CUT MUGABE 
LOOSE, ANGELO SAID YES, BECAUSE THEY KNOW THE LAWS OF HUMAN 
NATURE, THAT MUGABE WILL GO SOONER OR LATER.  THE MEMBERS 
OF THIS GROUP ARE PRIMARILY CONCERNED WITH THREE ISSUES: 
THE ELECTION, SUCCESSION, AND PROTECTION (OF ASSETS AND 
FROM PROSECUTION).  UNLESS THESE THREE ISSUES ARE 
ADDRESSED, ANGELO EMPHASIZED, WE WILL NOT SEE ANY CHANGE IN 
THE COURSE OF EVENTS IN ZIMBABWE. 
 
21.  (C) ASKED WHETHER THE UN PLANNED TO MOUNT AN ELECTION 
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PAGE 03        HARARE  03730  05 OF 05  141046Z 
OBSERVATION EFFORT, ANGELO SAID NO.  THE UN HAD TOLD THE 
GOZ IT WANTED AN INVITATION BY SEPTEMBER BECAUSE IT DID NOT 
WANT A TEAM TO COME IN AT THE LAST MINUTE MERELY TO ENDORSE 
A FLAWED PROCESS.  THE AMBASSADOR SAID SOME ANALYSTS 
CONTEND THAT THE GOZ IS EMPLOYING A COMPREHENSIVE, WELL- 
COORDINATED STRATEGY TO ENSURE IT WINS THE ELECTION.  IS 
THE STRATEGY REALLY THAT WELL-ORCHESTRATED, OR IS IT MOSTLY 
CONFUSION AND DISORDER?  A COMBINATION OF THE TWO, ANGELO 
REPLIED.  THE GOZ IS DOING THINGS LIKE MAKING IT VERY 
DIFFICULT FOR YOUNG, URBAN VOTERS TO REGISTER BUT WILL 
FIND, IN THE END, THAT IT IS NOT EASY TO MANAGE THE VOTE- 
COUNTING PROCESS TO ITS SATISFACTION.  THE GOZ, HE SAID, 
COULD EXPERIENCE "A VERY COLD SHOWER" ONCE THE VOTES ARE 
COUNTED.  THE ANTI-ZANU-PF PROTEST VOTE IS GROWING DAILY 
ACROSS THE COUNTRY, AS MORE AND MORE PEOPLE REALIZE THEIR 
COUNTRY IS BEING RUINED AND DO NOT WANT ZIMBABWE TO BECOME 
THE LATEST FAILED AFRICAN STATE. 
 
22.  (C) COMMENT: IN A CONVERSATION WITH THE AMBASSADOR 
FOLLOWING A/S KANSTEINER'S DEPARTURE, ANGELO AGREED TO CALL 
CHINAMASA'S BLUFF ON TRANSLUCENT BALLOT BOXES.  HE REPORTED 
BACK THAT CHINAMASA ACCEPTED THE OFFER AND HAD PROMISED TO 
SEND AN OFFICIAL REQUEST.  WHEN AND IF THIS ARRIVES, WE 
HAVE PRE-PROGRAMMED ESF WITH WHICH TO PROVIDE PARTIAL 
FUNDING FOR THIS COMMODITY THROUGH UNDP.  END COMMENT. 
 
SULLIVAN 
 
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