US embassy cable - 04THEHAGUE2999

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 THE HAGUE 002999 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EUR/PPD, EUR/UBI 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KPAO, PREL, NL 
SUBJECT: Dutch Opinion Makers -- Hopes and Fears 
for Second Bush Term 
 
 
1.  Summary:  In the days immediately following the US 
election, Ambassador Sobel and PA staff met with key groups 
of editors, commentators and journalists.  Most Dutch 
commentators and reporters expressed uncertainty on how to 
read the elections, particularly the exit poll information 
that indicated that "moral values" had been a deciding 
factor in President Bush's win. Some were concerned that the 
Administration would be less inclined towards multilaterism 
and consultation in the second term. However, there is a 
sincere desire to see an improvement of US-European 
relations and many expressed interest in a "gesture" towards 
Europe from the White House.  It should be noted that our 
meetings occurred right after the killing of Dutch filmmaker 
Theo Van Gogh while the public dialogue was focused mainly 
on terrorism, Islamic radicalism and integration in Dutch 
society. 
End Summary 
 
2.  Introduction:  In addition to monitoring press reaction 
to President Bush's re-election, Ambassador Sobel and PA 
staff gathered together two separate groups of observers for 
roundtable sessions and met with the editorial boards of 
Dutch dailies De Volkskrant and Trouw.  These sessions gave 
the Ambassador the opportunity to emphasize President Bush's 
comments about putting political divisions behind us and to 
highlight the desire of the President to reach out to 
Europe.  In return our contacts in these off-the-record 
sessions shared with us their candid impressions of the 
election and their concerns for a second Bush term. 
 
Democracy at work? 
------------------ 
3.  Dutch interest in US elections was keen and coverage was 
heavy.  All papers featured the results on their front 
pages.  All major radio and television outlets broadcasted 
live from the US. During the lead-up to the elections, Dutch 
journalists tried nobly to understand the US electoral 
system and did an admirable job of explaining it to their 
readers, but this year's close electoral count versus the 
substantial popular result for President Bush led to 
continuing questions about the electoral system.  Both 
Centrist Algemeen Dagblad (circ. 303,471) and Centrist 
NRC Handelsblad (circ. 262,422) called for reform of the US 
electoral system. 
 
4. We debriefed a group of Dutch journalists who had 
traveled to the US in the period just prior to the election. 
They were extremely upbeat about the US, and the results of 
the elections based on their personal observations during 
their trip.  They were universally impressed with the grass 
roots nature of US politics and the lively, dynamic 
democratic process.  They came back convinced that the 
process worked.  As one ventured: "the electoral vote is a 
better system than popular vote because it combated 
regionalism." 
 
Struggle to Derive Meaning From Result 
-------------------------------------- 
 
5.  Many commentators struggled to reach conclusions on what 
the re-election of President Bush meant and left their 
listeners and readers with more questions. Centrist 
influential daily De Volkskrant (circ. 322,926) for example, 
claimed that Europeans did not judge the changes in the US 
correctly.  "The fact that an average-performing Republican 
in the White House is allowed to stay provides food for 
thought.  Will President Bush prove to be the uniting figure 
that he says he is?  That question is important to 
Americans, but also important for countries which are 
closely linked to the US." 
 
6.  In the editorial board meetings on November 5, De 
Volkskrant and left-leaning Trouw (circ. 116,968) Ambassador 
Sobel had to react to anxious editors who worried out loud 
about the deep divides in the US and wondered about the 
effect of the issue of moral values on foreign policy.  The 
Trouw editors persisted on the subject, telling the 
Ambassador that the US and the Netherlands did not share the 
same values (note: especially on the issue of gay marriage). 
 
7.  A journalist who had been in the US just prior to the 
election said that she "found it difficult to understand why 
moral issues were more important to people than economics. 
"The Dutch don't understand," she said, "because these are 
no longer issues here." 
 
Concerns about Unilateralism 
---------------------------- 
8.  The majority of journalists and editors that we talked 
to were skeptical about the President's promise to be a 
uniter.  "Bush promised the same thing four years ago," one 
journalist told us.  A reporter from the conservative 
Telegraaf countered that comment by saying "But he has 
learned a lot in the past four years."  There was even more 
cynicism about a positive change in foreign policy. 
 
8. Trouw's editorial on November 4 reflected their concern 
that foreign policy would not change.  They wrote: "The 
American President and his advisors have a vision of the 
world, which is certainly not shared by everybody, but which 
they implement at full force - even with minimal assistance 
of other countries if necessary."  In our meeting with the 
editors of Trouw on November 5, they were most interested in 
how the issues of moral values would effect broader foreign 
policy issues.  They seemed concerned were about the long- 
term effects of the election on the world. 
 
9. Other papers also expressed their concern for a 
continuation or intensification of the preemptive doctrine 
now that the President has a "mandate."  For example, 
Algemeen Dagblad wrote: " Outside the US, there is the 
danger of a solo and headstrong performance."  NRC suggested 
in a piece entitled "moral values more important than Iraq" 
said that the aggressive US foreign policy would continue 
and that the radical social and fiscal policies would be 
forcefully continued." 
 
9.  The editors at De Volkskrant were most concerned about 
the future of Iraq and wanted to know about the November 22 
Iraqi conference and whether there was a timetable for 
pullout.  They were also concerned about Iraqi elections. 
 
A Fresh Start 
------------- 
10.  The Conservative daily newspaper Telegraaf (circ. 
776,004) had a much more upbeat editorial on the re- 
election.  "The world has to get ready for four more years 
of Bush even though it had preferred Kerry.  Hopefully a 
fresh start can be used to improve US-European relations. 
That will require the old continent to be more modest and 
recognize that America has the right and duty to protect 
itself against terror.  The key focus should be on 
cooperation.  Europe and the US share sufficient common 
values to make it happen." 
 
11.  A conference hosted by the Clingendael Institute in The 
Hague on November 12, heard calls for a more "Gaullist" 
vision of Europe amid concerns about unilateralism. 
However, pragmatists ruled the day with Institute Director 
van Staden arguing that security interests endure longer 
than the term of a president.  Europe and the US must 
seriously renew their commitments to NATO again, he said. 
 
Advice for the President 
------------------------ 
12.  In our recent sessions we would often ask journalists 
and commentators what advice they would give to the newly re- 
elected president to improve relations with Europe. 
Interestingly, the advice often related more to style than 
to policy: "Change rhetoric", they commented. 
 
13. "People need reassurance of the President's humility and 
ability to admit mistakes," said one editor.  "Bush should 
search for consensus and cooperation.  He should build new 
relationships based on trust." 
 
14.  What would the Dutch like to see in a second term? 
According to our contacts they want more cooperation with 
the EU and "less unilateralism."  One reporter told us that 
on Iraq the Dutch fear that the US will secure the peace 
there and move on while the Dutch get bogged down in a 
lengthy peace keeping operation.  The US should not approach 
Europe as "old and new", but as a whole.   France and 
Germany have to be onboard one journalist advised. "He 
(President Bush) has to consider new rules of engagement in 
the world in a UN context," another urged.  One editor felt 
that a gesture on an issue such as Kyoto would be 
beneficial. 
 
15.  A group of prominent journalists and commentators met 
over dinner and told us that even if Bush made a grand 
gesture of some sort towards Europe that Europeans would be 
so cynical that they would not be receptive.  A Dutch 
commentator of Iranian origin encouraged the US to speak to 
students, both of Dutch and immigrant background. 
 
Conclusion 
---------- 
16.  While the Dutch opinion makers are currently concerned 
with Islamic extremism and integration, they are also 
concerned about what a second Bush administration means to 
them.  They seem anxious for a gesture of some sort from the 
White House indicating a willingness to work together more. 
While they weren't terribly specific about what this gesture 
would entail, they indicated that they would be receptive to 
just about anything.  Volkskrant, however, in their November 
15 editorial commented that President Bush's gesture of 
traveling to Europe as soon as possible in order to 
strengthen transatlantic ties is a  "laudable aspiration. 
But it might be more urgent for the President to have a good 
talk with the chief of the organization that is to provide 
the necessary support for Iraqi elections, " the paper 
concluded. 
 
Our post-election encounters reveal little outward hostility 
to  the  US  and  some familiar unease about the  future  of 
transatlantic relations. However, on balance, what prevailed 
was  relative  optimism and a strong desire to continue  the 
Dutch Atlanticist role. 
 
SOBEL