US embassy cable - 04YEREVAN2494

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 002494 
 
SIPDIS 
 
EUR/CACEN FOR E. SIDEREAS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/17/2014 
TAGS: PREL, MARR, MOPS, IZ, AM 
SUBJECT: RECENT STATEMENTS SUGGEST COOLER LOCAL TEMPERATURE 
ON PENDING IRAQ DEPLOYMENT 
 
REF: YEREVAN 21666 
 
Classified By: Ambassador John M. Evans for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
------- 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
1. (C) Recent statements by high-level policymakers and 
opinion pieces in the local media suggest that there may be 
growing opposition to the pending deployment of Armenian 
peacekeeping support to Iraq.  Reports of a car bomb 
explosion November 9 near an Armenian church in Iraq 
re-ignited a flurry of discussion in Armenia's capital and 
within the Armenian Diaspora community as to the potential 
dangers to Armenian communities in Iraq and the greater 
Middle East should Armenians join coalition forces in Iraq. 
In contrast to earlier criticism from smaller NGOs or 
marginalized political leaders in the opposition (reftel), 
recent remarks have come from the offices of the Prime 
Minister and the leadership of the governing coalition's 
Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF-"Dashnaksutyun") 
Party.  A member of the National Assembly (NA) told us 
recently that the GOAM has not consulted as deeply within the 
legislature as it should and that some within the NA are 
starting to waver on the issue.  Despite continued 
reassurances from the President, Foreign Minister and Defense 
Minister that the GOAM will stay its course (and the 
existence of enough ruling coalition votes in the legislature 
to pass such a measure notwithstanding), the road to a 
favorable vote in the National Assembly is likely to be less 
smooth than it was when Armenia first committed to deploy. 
End Summary. 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
PM, DASHNAKS LESS UPBEAT ABOUT IRAQ DEPLOYMENT 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
2. (C) Recent statements by high-level policymakers and 
accompanying opinion pieces in the local media suggest that 
there may be growing opposition to the pending deployment of 
Armenian non-combat support troops to Iraq.  In contrast to 
earlier criticism from smaller NGOs and marginalized 
political leaders in the opposition (ref), recent remarks 
have come from serious political players in Armenia's 
capital.  Prime Minister Andranik Margaryan's late October 
comments to local media that "we may or may not go ahead with 
the deployment" was the first time that a high-ranking GOAM 
official had expressed doubt about the viability of sending 
Armenian support to coalition forces in Iraq.  A press 
conference following recent party meetings of the Armenian 
Revolutionary Federation (ARF-"Dashnaksutyun") included calls 
for caution, suggesting that an Armenian deployment could 
turn Armenian communities in the Middle East into targets for 
terrorist vendettas.  The local media latched onto both these 
statements while reiterating earlier comments by opposition 
leader Artashes Geghamian and local NGOs that criticized the 
GOAM's decision to deploy. 
 
---------------------------------- 
CAR BOMB IN IRAQ RE-IGNITES DEBATE 
---------------------------------- 
 
3. (C) The November 9 explosion of a car bomb outside an 
Armenian Church in Iraq re-ignited local debate about the 
potential pros and cons of an Iraq deployment.  Both local 
and Diaspora-based media outlets were quick to point to the 
bombing as a possible warning to the GOAM by terrorist groups 
not to join coalition forces.  Local media published excerpts 
from open letters by Archbishop Avak Asadourian, 
representative of the Armenian Apostolic Church in Iraq, to 
President Robert Kocharian and Armenia's parliamentary 
leadership criticizing the decision to deploy Armenian 
troops, linking it to safety concerns for the estimated 
20,000 Armenians living in Iraq.  A local spokesman for the 
Armenian Apostolic Church, normally moderate in his approach 
to the subject, told us that there were growing concerns 
following that bombing that a deployment of Armenian forces 
could lead to similar attacks in the near future. 
 
-------------------------------------------- 
DIASPORA PUSHES ON PARLIAMENT TO THINK TWICE 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
4. (C) Recent meetings of international Diaspora groups have 
produced unofficial "resolutions" that the Diaspora should 
raise its concerns with contacts in the National Assembly.  A 
worldwide meeting of Armenian women in Geneva in late 
October, for example, resulted in telephone calls to MPs 
concerning the safety of Armenian communities in places like 
Syria, Lebanon and Egypt should the National Assembly ratify 
the decision to deploy forces.  A recent worldwide meeting of 
one Diaspora group reportedly included one-on-one 
"consultations" with GOAM leaders to "see if they were really 
going to go through" with the pledged deployment.  One MP 
told us recently that the GOAM has not consulted as deeply 
within the legislature as it should and that these statements 
are making some within the NA waver on the issue. 
 
------------------------------------ 
GOAM STILL STANDS FIRM, REASSURES US 
------------------------------------ 
 
5. (C) The President, Foreign Minister, and Defense Minister 
continue to reassure USG officials that enough political 
capital exists in the National Assembly to push through 
ratification of the deployment.  NA Speaker Baghdasaryan 
publicly responded to concerns in late October saying that 
the humanitarian nature of the planned deployment and 
continued USG assistance would help the vote pass without 
problem.  While the governing coalition technically has 
enough votes to ratify deployment (even given the ongoing 
opposition boycott), the recent statements by the Prime 
Minister and Dashnak leadership reveal potential fissures 
that could make the upcoming vote a more delicate initiative 
than it first appeared. 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
6. (C) We will continue to engage MPs and GOAM leadership 
privately on the importance of support for coalition forces 
but do not now plan on aggressive programs of Public 
Diplomacy to support deployment.  When DAS Kennedy met 
President Kocharian in October, he asked that we curb such 
efforts as they would "likely be counterproductive."  End 
comment. 
EVANS