US embassy cable - 04TAIPEI3677

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 003677 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/18/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, TW 
SUBJECT: LY ELECTION PREVIEW: MIAOLI COUNTY 
 
REF: TAIPEI 03646 
 
Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason: 1.4 (B/D) 
 
1. (C) Summary: Miaoli County (four seats), with its large 
Hakka population, has been a long-time Pan-Blue stronghold. 
Hoping to keep it that way, the Pan-Blue has nominated its 
three incumbents, and will run a campaign in which ethnic 
politics (likely masquerading as "local roots") will feature 
prominently.  The DPP believes that its Hakka outreach 
efforts of the last few years might now bear fruit and help 
it unseat one of the KMT incumbents, Ho Chih-hui, who is 
embroiled in a corruption scandal that had him spending most 
of the last year in exile in Shanghai.  If it is successful, 
the DPP hopes that this will usher in a new era for Miaoli 
politics, in which party identity and ideology will supplant 
ethnicity and factionalism as the most important electoral 
issues.  Even if it fails, however, the DPP is all but 
guaranteed to hold onto its one seat.  End Summary. 
 
Miaoli: Majority Hakka and Staunchly Pan-Blue 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
2. (C) Miaoli County (pop. 560,597) in northwestern Taiwan is 
home to one of Taiwan's largest concentrations of ethnic 
Hakka.  Hakka have traditionally been stalwart Pan-Blue 
supporters, and Miaoli is therefore considered a Pan-Blue 
stronghold.  The Pan-Green currently holds only one of 
Miaoli's four seats in the Legislative Yuan (LY) and in the 
2004 Presidential election, Miaoli residents voted for Lien 
Chan of the Kuomintang (KMT) over Chen Shui-bian of the 
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) by a 21.5 percent margin. 
Despite these intimidating demographics, the Pan-Green has 
nominated three candidates for this December's LY election, 
hoping to wrest an additional seat or two from the Pan-Blue's 
three incumbents, who are all standing for reelection.  Four 
independent candidates have also registered, but none is 
expected to be a serious contender. 
 
Pan-Blue: A Time-Tested Formula 
------------------------------- 
 
3. (C) Pan-Blue campaign organizers said they are confident 
the Pan-Blue incumbents can hold onto their three seats.  KMT 
Miaoli County Chairman Lee Chin-sung said that the Pan-Blue 
is using a time-tested formula for success in Miaoli.  The 
three Pan-Blue candidates, he explained, each represent one 
of the major geographical subdivisions of the county: the 
KMT's Liu Sheng-hung and Ho Chih-hui are from the coastal and 
mountain areas respectively, and Hsu Yao-chang of the People 
First Party (PFP) is from the Chunggang river area.  Both Ho 
and Hsu are ethnic Hakkas, he added.  The Pan-Green 
candidates, by contrast, are all ethnic Taiwanese from the 
coastal region, he said.  The KMT will use its ethnic and 
geographic diversity to its advantage, Lee explained.  Ho, 
for example, will emphasize the need to keep a representative 
from the mountain area in the LY as part of his campaign. 
KMT candidates will also campaign on their legislative 
record, he said, reminding voters of the construction and 
development projects they have brought to Miaoli.  The PFP's 
Hsu will use a similar strategy, said PFP County Councilor 
Tsou Yu-mei. 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DPP: Not as Reckless as it Might Seem 
------------------------------------- 
 
4. (C) DPP Miaoli County Chairman Hsu Chin-jung defended the 
DPP's nomination strategy.  The Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU) 
candidate, Chiu Te-hong, "doesn't stand a chance", he 
explained, so he should not count as a serious Pan-Green 
nominee.  In fact, Chiu only recently left the KMT to join 
the TSU, he said, so he is just as likely to steal votes from 
KMT candidates as from the DPP's nominees.  (Note: Chiu was a 
founding member of the "Blue Eagle Warriors," a group of 
young up-and-coming KMT members who in April urged the party 
leadership to admit defeat in the March presidential 
election, conduct a generational transfer of power, back 
comprehensive reform and shift the party's ideology toward 
the political center.  He became increasingly critical of 
Lien Chan, at one point calling him a "lazy worm" to his 
face, and was expelled from the KMT in late July after 
accepting the TSU's nomination in Miaoli.  End Note.) 
5. (C) Hsu added that DPP nominee Chen Chao-ming can not be 
considered a newcomer because he previously served as an 
independent LY member from 1998-2001 and only narrowly lost 
his reelection bid in the last election.  Furthermore, he 
predicted, the formerly independent Chen will attract many of 
his old supporters, and will not have to rely solely on loyal 
DPP voters.  Hsu also downplayed the DPP's lack of 
geographical diversity, noting that although incumbent Tu 
Wen-ching is originally from the coastal area, he has lived 
in Miaoli City, located in the mountain area of the county, 
for the past 13 years and has proven himself to the local 
population by previously serving as a locally elected County 
Council-member. 
 
Scandal Plagued Ho Chih-hui 
--------------------------- 
 
6. (C) Hsu said the DPP "stands a good chance of taking two 
seats" in this election because of the controversy 
surrounding KMT nominee Ho Chih-hui.  Ho fled to Shanghai in 
October 2003 to avoid an investigation into charges he had 
illegally used his position as County Magistrate in the 
mid-1990s to secure loans for himself.  In May 2004 he was 
officially indicted on charges of corruption carrying a 
recommended sentence of 18 years imprisonment.  He returned 
to Taiwan in September to vote on the "Truth Investigation 
Commission" bill authorizing an LY-appointed committee to 
investigate the circumstances of President Chen's March 19 
shooting and its impact on the subsequent election.  He also 
registered to become a member of the LY Judiciary Committee 
in a crass attempt, media and Pan-Green critics alleged, to 
influence his own case.  Ho is currently protected by 
legislative immunity and cannot be arrested.  If he wins 
election, Hsu predicted, he will drag the case out 
indefinitely or until the charges are dropped.  If Ho loses, 
Hsu said, he will likely have friends smuggle him to Shanghai 
again despite a court order restricting him from leaving the 
country. 
 
Ho's Supporters Abandoning Him 
------------------------------ 
 
7. (C) Hsu said he was hopeful that many voters uneasy with 
Ho's "many flaws" will vote instead for one of the DPP 
candidates.  The PFP's Tsou independently noted that many of 
the local community leaders who previously endorsed Ho are 
now supporting the DPP's Chen Chao-ming.  Furthermore, Miaoli 
County Magistrate Fu Hsieh-peng (a PFP-leaning independent) 
has been attending the rallies of DPP candidate Tu Wen-ching 
in addition to those of the PFP's Hsu Yao-chang.  KMT 
Organizational Development Committee Chairman Liao Feng-te 
speculated that Fu has thrown his support behind Tu because 
of a personal grudge he has with Ho.  KMT County Chairman Lee 
acknowledged that Fu and Ho have had a less than friendly 
relationship since they ran against one another six years ago 
in a very negative campaign for County Magistrate.  Both 
filed libel suits against one another at the time, he said, 
and one of these suits is still pending.  However, Lee 
asserted that Fu's willingness to appear at Tu's rallies is 
not a snub directed toward Ho, but rather an effort to build 
good relations with both sides before his retirement.  Deputy 
Magistrate Chen Hsiu-lung offered a similar explanation, 
saying "Fu wants to be friends with everybody now, so he 
wants to remain neutral."  He added that Fu will attend any 
candidate's rallies, including Ho's, if he is asked to. 
 
DPP Wants to Change Political Landscape in Miaoli 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
8. (C) DPP Chairman Hsu said he hoped that the DPP would be 
successful in getting both of its candidates elected because 
this would "forever change the political landscape in Miaoli" 
from one based on factional politics to one of party 
politics.  Indeed, a striking feature of the campaign in 
Miaoli is the relative lack of attention given to the 
political parties.  Campaign posters for both the PFP's Hsu 
and the KMT's Liu do not indicate their respective party 
affiliations at all.  Even the DPP's normally very cohesive, 
party-centered campaign is notably absent in Miaoli.  Its 
candidates are running independent campaigns and are 
reluctant to implement the party's trademark "peipiao" vote 
distribution scheme.  DPP Chairman Hsu noted that the only 
way for his office nominally to comply with central party 
instructions to run a "team campaign" was for him personally 
to print up leaflets with photos and information about both 
candidates on the same page.  He added that should peipiao 
become necessary in the end, the only way to implement it 
might be to have President Chen Shui-bian personally come 
down to Miaoli and call on voters to distribute their votes. 
 
Factionalism and Ethnicity 
-------------------------- 
 
9. (C) Instead of partisanship, factionalism and ethnicity 
are playing a much bigger role in Miaoli.  KMT Chairman Lee 
asserted that the reason for DPP candidate Chen Chao-ming's 
high level of support is because of his affiliation with the 
"Liu faction," which emerged after an internal KMT split over 
a County Magistrate election 40 years ago.  The KMT's Ho is 
also in the "Liu faction", he said, so the willingness of 
some of Ho's supporters to back Chen instead is not very 
surprising.  More prominent, however, are Miaoli's ethnic 
politics.  The KMT and PFP are trying to mobilize the 
traditionally Pan-Blue Hakka vote by subtly playing up the 
Hakka ethnicity and local roots of their candidates Ho and 
Hsu. 
 
DPP Reaches out to Hakkas 
------------------------- 
 
10. (C) However, the DPP's Tu is also actively courting the 
Hakka vote by emphasizing his long residence and service to 
the Hakka-dominated mountain areas of Miaoli and by 
minimizing references to his ethnic Taiwanese identity and 
membership in the DPP.  Photos of ethnic Taiwanese Chen 
Shui-bian, for example, are conspicuously absent from his 
campaign posters and other materials.  DPP County Chairman 
Hsu's office is also campaigning for the Hakka vote, 
reminding them of the party's efforts on their behalf in the 
last few years, such as the formation of the Hakka Affairs 
Council, promotion of Hakka-language education, the creation 
of a Hakka-language television channel, and other 
celebrations of Hakka culture (Reftel).  Hsu said he is 
confident that a genuine appreciation among Hakka for the 
DPP's Hakka-friendly policies, combined with a sentiment 
among many Hakka that they should back the party in power to 
best gain influence, will result in a historically high 
turnout among Hakka for the DPP. 
 
Comment: DPP Enjoys Room for Experimentation 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
11. (C) Miaoli represents a test for the DPP's efforts to 
expand from its roots as a party largely for ethnic Taiwanese 
into a genuinely multi-ethnic political party.  They will 
need to attract some of the Hakka vote if they hope to take 
two seats.  The KMT's decision to renominate a candidate as 
unattractive as the scandal-plagued Ho Chih-hui has made that 
task somewhat easier.  In any case, the DPP has little to 
lose in Miaoli: they are virtually assured of keeping the one 
seat they have, as the Pan-Blue only nominated three 
candidates, and none of the independents poses a serious 
threat. 
PAAL