US embassy cable - 01BEIRUT3057

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 003057 
 
JEDDAH FOR STEINGER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/12/2011 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PTER, ECON, LE, IR, SY 
SUBJECT: BERRI ON HIZBALLAH, THE REGION AND THE ECONOMY 
 
REF: A. BEIRUT 3002 
     B. BEIRUT 2965 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: DCM CAROL R. KALIN.  REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY:  IN DISCUSSING HIZBALLAH'S SIGNIFICANCE WITH 
THE AMBASSADOR DECEMBER 7, SPEAKER BERRI SAID THAT AMAL WAS 
RESPONSIBLE FOR ALL "ACTIONS" PRIOR TO ISRAEL'S 1984 
WITHDRAWAL FROM BEIRUT.  HE PREDICTED THAT HIZBALLAH WOULD 
CONTINUE TO LAUNCH CROSS-BORDER ATTACKS UNTIL A COMPREHENSIVE 
PEACE WAS REACHED.  BERRI ARGUED THAT ARAFAT WAS TOO WEAK TO 
COMBAT TERRORISM, AND WARNED OF CIVIL WAR AMONG THE 
PALESTINIANS.  ON THE ECONOMY, BERRI CLAIMED THAT HE DID NOT 
OPPOSE PRIVATIZATION, BUT WOULD USE HIS ROLE AS SPEAKER TO 
INFLUENCE THE PRIORITIZATION OF ECONOMIC REFORM MEASURES. 
BERRI THANKED THE AMBASSADOR FOR HIS DECEMBER 3 TOUR OF SOUTH 
LEBANON FOCUSED ON DEMINING ISSUES.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
2. (C) HIZBALLAH'S ROLE:  DURING A DECEMBER 7 MEETING WITH 
SPEAKER NABIH BERRI, AMBASSADOR, ACCOMPANIED BY LEBANON DESK 
OFFICER TIM POUNDS AND POLOFF, SOLICITED BERRI'S VIEW ON 
WIDESPREAD SPECULATION THAT HIZBALLAH MAY BE REASSESSING ITS 
TACTICS.  BERRI SAID THAT THE PATH HIZBALLAH CHOOSES WOULD 
DEPEND ON THE COURSE OF U.S.-IRANIAN RELATIONS. RECALLING 
HIZBALLAH SYG'S DECEMBER 1 REMARKS THAT SHEBA' FARMS WERE NOT 
THE ONLY OCCUPIED LEBANESE TERRITORY (REF A), BERRI PREDICTED 
THAT THERE WOULD BE NO END TO CROSS-BORDER ATTACKS UNTIL 
THERE WAS A COMPREHENSIVE PEACE AGREEMENT.  HE ASSERTED THAT 
"THE ISSUE IS WITH THE SYRIANS," AND GIVEN SYRIA'S INFLUENCE 
IN LEBANON, THEIR "BROTHERLY RELATIONS" AND THE TWO 
COUNTRIES' REJECTION OF SEPARATE PEACE AGREEMENTS, A 
CESSATION OF ATTACKS WAS UNLIKELY.  BERRI SAID THAT ISRAEL 
HAS INFLATED HIZBALLAH'S STANDING BY CREDITING IT WITH ACTS 
COMMITTED BY AMAL OR OTHER GROUPS.  BERRI VOLUNTEERED THAT 
AMAL WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR ALL "ACTIONS" PRIOR TO THE 1984 
ISRAELI WITHDRAWAL FROM BEIRUT. 
 
3. (C) BERRI NOTED THAT THE TRADITIONAL RIVALRY BETWEEN 
HIZBALLAH AND AMAL HAS STRENGTHENED THE GOL'S ROLE IN THE 
SOUTH.  FOLLOWING ISRAEL'S WITHDRAWAL FROM THE SOUTH, HE 
SAID, THE TWO GROUPS AGREED THAT THEY WOULD LEAVE SECURITY 
ISSUES TO GOL AUTHORITIES, IN ORDER TO AVOID OPEN CONFLICT 
BETWEEN THEM.  AS AN EXAMPLE OF THIS ARRANGEMENT, HE NOTED 
THAT THE ISF HAD BEEN THE ORGANIZATION TO RESPOND TO A RECENT 
INCIDENT IN MARJAYOUN IN WHICH A FORMER SLA MEMBER WAS 
ATTACKED. HE ALSO CITED THE ISF'S ROLE IN ENSURING SMOOTH 
MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS IN SEPTEMBER. 
 
4. (C) REGIONAL VIOLENCE:  THE AMBASSADOR UPDATED BERRI ON 
SPECIAL ENVOY ZINNI'S WORK IN THE REGION, AND A/S BURNS' 
PLANS TO VISIT BEIRUT ON DECEMBER 14. BERRI SAID THAT HE DOES 
NOT BELIEVE SHARON WANTS PEACE.  THE AMBASSADOR ARGUED THAT 
IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF SIGNIFICANT U.S. MOVES ON THE 
PEACE PROCESS AND THE DISPATCH OF ZINNI AND BURNS TO THE 
REGION, PALESTINIANS HAD LAUNCHED A SERIES OF TERRORIST 
ATTACKS.  BERRI ACCEPTED THE AMBASSADOR'S POINT, BUT WARNED 
THAT ARAFAT WAS CAUGHT BETWEEN FACING A CIVIL WAR OR A WAR 
WITH ISRAEL.  ARAFAT IS WEAK, HE SAID, AND DOES NOT HAVE THE 
ABILITY TO DO MORE.   "IF WE END UP WITH HAMAS AND SHARON, IT 
WILL BE A DISASTER,"  HE SAID.  THE AMBASSADOR RESPONDED THAT 
ARAB LEADERS HAVE A RESPONSIBILITY TO SUPPORT ARAFAT AND 
ENCOURAGE HIS COUNTER-TERRORISM EFFORTS. 
 
5. (C) THE ECONOMY:  TURNING TO THE ECONOMY, BERRI CLAIMED 
THAT ALTHOUGH HE FAVORS PRIVATIZATION, AS A TACTICAL MOVE, HE 
WAS HOLDING UP PRIVATIZATION OF TELECOMMS UNTIL THE 
GOVERNMENT MOVED AHEAD ON THE MOST COSTLY SECTORS, SUCH AS 
THE ELECTRICAL UTILITY, EDL.  HOWEVER, BEFORE PRIVATIZATION 
OF EDL BEGAN, BERRI ADDED, THE GOVERNMENT SHOULD FIRST 
COLLECT THE THOUSANDS OF UNPAID ELECTRICAL BILLS.  THE 
GOVERNMENT REALIZED AN ANNUAL INTAKE OF $400 MILLION FROM 
TELEPHONE LANDLINES, SO ITS PRIVATIZATION WAS NOT AN URGENT 
MATTER, AND BERRI SAID THAT HE HAD ALREADY AGREED TO THE 
PRIVATIZATION OF THE CELL-PHONE NETWORK. 
 
6. (C) BERRI V. HARIRI:  BERRI SAID THAT HE WOULD WORK WITH 
HARIRI ON ECONOMIC ITEMS WHEN IT WAS IN THE INTEREST OF THE 
BUDGET, BUT NOT WHEN HARIRI WAS "BEING LAZY." FOR EXAMPLE, 
BERRI SAID, HE HAD RAILROADED THE VAT LAW THROUGH PARLIAMENT 
AS A PACKAGE, CONTRARY TO HIS USUAL PRACTICE OF VOTING ON 
EACH ARTICLE SEPARATELY, BECAUSE HE BELIEVED IT WAS AN 
IMPORTANT STEP.  HOWEVER, HE WOULD FIGHT HARIRI ON THE 
REDUCTION OF THE COUNCIL FOR THE SOUTH'S BUDGET.  BERRI SAID 
THAT HE HAD ACCEPTED A 25 PERCENT REDUCTION, BUT HARIRI HAD 
TRIED TO SLASH THE BUDGET BY 40 PERCENT.  BECAUSE PARLIAMENT 
DOES NOT HAVE THE POWER TO INCREASE ALLOCATIONS, ONLY TO CUT 
THEM, BERRI SAID THAT HE HAD THREATENED TO RETALIATE AGAINST 
HARIRI BY CUTTING IN AREAS DEAR TO HARIRI.  BERRI SAID THAT 
THE FORMER ISRAELI-CONTROLLED AREA NEEDED SIGNIFICANT 
INFRASTRUCTURE IMPROVEMENTS, INCLUDING THE RECONSTRUCTION OF 
10,000 HOMES. 
 
7. (C) DEMINING:  THE AMBASSADOR BRIEFED BERRI ON HIS TRIP 
THROUGH SOUTH LEBANON DECEMBER 3 FOCUSED ON DEMINING ISSUES 
(REF B).  SUCH OPERATIONS, HE NOTED, IN ADDITION TO BEING A 
HUMANITARIAN IMPERATIVE, WERE CRUCIAL TO THE ECONOMIC 
REVITALIZATION OF SOUTHERN LEBANON.  BERRI THANKED THE 
AMBASSADOR FOR MAKING THE TRIP, SAYING HE HAD FOLLOWED THE 
EVENTS CLOSELY. 
 
8. (C) COMMENT: BERRI'S CLAIM TO ALL "ACTIONS" UNTIL 1984, 
LIKELY INTENDED AS A THROW-AWAY TO MINIMIZE THE SIGNIFICANCE 
OF AMAL'S RIVAL HIZBALLAH ON THE LEBANESE SCENE, IS 
STARTLING, AND IT IS UNLIKELY IF ASKED AGAIN THAT HE WOULD 
CONFIRM AMAL'S RESPONSIBILITY FOR TERRORIST ATTACKS AGAINST 
U.S. FACILITIES.  BERRI'S INFLUENCE HAS ALWAYS DEPENDED ON 
HIS ABILITY TO OFFER PATRONAGE TO HIS SUPPORTERS.  HIS 
ATTEMPTS TO IMPOSE AN ECONOMIC RATIONALE ON BLATANT ATTEMPTS 
TO KEEP AS MANY JOBS FOR HIS RETAINERS FOR AS LONG AS 
POSSIBLE ARE UNCONVINCING AND THE INSISTENCE ON EDL BILL 
COLLECTIONS RUN CONTARY TO HIS OWN POLITICAL INTERESTS, SINCE 
MOST OF THE UNCOLLECTED FEES ARE AMONG HIS CONSTITUENTS.  HIS 
SUPPORT IS CRUCIAL, HOWEVER, TO THE ADOPTION OF LEGISLATION, 
AS HE MAINTAINS SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE OVER THE PARLIAMENTARY 
PROCESS. END COMMENT. 
 
 
BATTLE