US embassy cable - 01HARARE3691

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 003691 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF AND AF/S 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR FRAZER 
 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
 
PARIS FOR NEARY 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/13/06 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, EAGR, ECON, ZI 
SUBJECT: SADC MINISTERIAL COMMITTEE PLAYS IN HARARE, 
ACT II: MUCH ADO ABOUT NOTHING 
 
REF: LUSAKA 2731 
 
CLASSIFIED BY DCM REWHITEHEAD DUE TO 1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY.  THE LONG ANTICIPATED VISIT OF THE SADC 
MINISTERIAL COMMITTEE DEALING WITH THE ZIMBABWEAN 
SITUATION TOOK PLACE ON DECEMBER 10 AND 11, LONG ON 
RHETORIC BUT SHORT ON RESULTS.  THE GOZ MANAGED TO 
CONTROL BOTH THE AGENDA AND THE FOCUS OF THE MEETING, 
WHICH YIELDED A LARGELY TOOTHLESS FINAL COMMUNIQUE. 
READOUTS FROM MULTIPLE SOURCES INDICATE THAT THE GOZ WAS 
SPARED SERIOUS CRITICISM FROM THEIR SOUTHERN AFRICAN 
BRETHREN, WHO SHOWED LITTLE SYMPATHY FOR "THE OTHER 
SIDE" OF THE EQUATION.  WHILE IT MAY BE TOO EARLY TO 
WRITE OFF THE PROCESS ALTOGETHER, THE VISITING SADC 
MINISTERS SHOWED LITTLE STOMACH FOR CONFRONTING ZIMBABWE 
ABOUT ITS ESCALATING INTERNAL CRISIS.  END SUMMARY. 
 
------------------- 
THE MOZAMBICAN TAKE 
------------------- 
 
2.  (C) IN A CONVERSATION WITH THE AMBASSADOR, 
MOZAMBICAN HIGH COMMISSIONER SUMBANA DESCRIBED THE VISIT 
AS "GOOD."  HE SAID THAT THE MINISTERS HAD AGREED, NOT 
SURPRISINGLY, THAT ZIMBABWE NEEDED TO MOVE FORWARD ON 
THE LAND REFORM ISSUE.  THEY ALSO AGREED THAT IT WAS 
ESSENTIAL TO FIND EXTERNAL RESOURCES TO SUPPORT THE 
REFORM PROCESS, PRESUMABLY FROM BRITAIN.  THEY ADMITTED 
TO CONTINUING PROBLEMS WITH VIOLENCE BUT OBSERVED THAT 
THE VIOLENCE WAS LESS SERIOUS THAN SIX MONTHS AGO. 
 
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3.  (C) SUMBANA SAID THAT THE GOZ ALSO AGREED TO DISCUSS 
OTHER RELATED ISSUES, INCLUDING ELECTIONS.  THE GOZ 
AGREED IN PRINCIPLE TO THE SADC-PF ELECTORAL NORMS AND 
STANDARDS WITH THE CAVEAT THAT THERE WAS NOT SUFFICIENT 
TIME LEFT TO IMPLEMENT ALL OF THESE BEFORE THE 
ELECTIONS, AND SPECIFICALLY ESTABLISHMENT OF AN 
INDEPENDENT ELECTORAL COMMISSION.  HOWEVER, THEY WOULD 
NOT YIELD ON THE ISSUE OF CIVIL SERVANTS SERVING AS 
ELECTION MONITORS (VICE THE CIVIL SOCIETY 
REPRESENTATIVES USED IN THE PAST, ALTHUOGH WE UNDERSTAND 
FROM OTHER SOURCES THERE MIGHT STILL BE MOVEMENT ON 
THIS).  HE SAID THAT THERE WERE ASSURANCES THAT SADC-PF 
WOULD BE ABLE TO OBSERVE THE ELECTION, WITH OBSERVERS 
PERMITTED TO BEGIN THEIR WORK AT A STILL UNSPECIFIED 
DATE IN JANUARY. SUMBANA DOFFED HIS SADC HAT FOR A 
MOMENT AND POPPED ON HIS HONEST BROKER'S CAP.  HE 
OBSERVED THAT THE GOZ SEEMED RELUCTANT TO PICK A FIGHT 
WITH THE U.S. AND ASKED WHAT MEASURES THE GOZ NEEDED TO 
TAKE IN REVISING THE ELECTORAL LAW TO SUIT US. 
 
------------ 
THE CFU TAKE 
------------ 
 
4.  (C) COMMERCIAL FARMERS' UNION (CFU) VICE PRESIDENT 
MALCOLM VOWLES DESCRIBED TO DCM THE SADC MINISTERS' 
ENCOUNTER WITH REPRESENTATIVES OF THE CFU, THE PRO-ZANU- 
PF ZIMBABWEAN FARMERS' UNION ZFU), AND THE ZAMBIAN JOINT 
RESETTLEMENT INITIATIVE (ZJRI), WHICH VOWLES 
REPRESENTED.  HE SAID THAT THE CFU HAD RAISED THREE MAIN 
POINTS: THE NEW ARTICLE 8 REGULATIONS (THAT PERMIT FARM 
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PAGE 04        HARARE  03691  01 OF 02  130533Z 
SEIZURE WITHIN 90 DAYS WITHOUT PRIOR REDRESS TO THE 
ADMINISTRATIVE COURT); NEW REGULATIONS LIMITING THE 
MAXIMUM SIZE OF FARMS; AND THE LACK OF CFU COURT ACCESS 
FOLLOWING THE SUPREME COURT RULING THROWING OUT THE 
RIGHT OF THE CFU TO CONTEST THE FAST-TRACK LAND REFORM 
PROGRAM ON CONSTITUTIONAL GROUNDS.  THE CFU ALSO 
PRESENTED ITS MOST RECENT PRODUCTION ASSESSMENT. 
 
5.  (C) VOWLES SAID THAT THE SADC MINISTERS REACTED BY 
POSING "TOUGH" AND DETAILED QUESTIONS TO THE CFU, WHILE 
LOBBING ONLY A FEW SOFTBALLS TO THE ZFU AND ZJRI.  HE 
TERMED THE GENERAL SADC REACTION AS UNSYMPATHETIC, 
ALTHOUGH NOT HOSTILE.  THE UNDERLYING THEME SEEMED TO 
BE, "NOW THAT THE SUPREME COURT HAS RULED ON THE 
LEGALITY OF THE REFORMS, WHAT MORE DO YOU WANT?"  ZFU 
VICE PRESIDENT WAS BY CONTRAST BOTH HOSTILE AND 
AGGRESSIVE, SNEERING AT THE CFU PRODUCTION ASSESSMENT 
AND INSISTING THAT LOST PRODUCTION FROM "WHITES" WOULD 
BE MORE OFFSET BY THE PRODUCTION FROM ENFRANCHISED 
"BLACKS" RESETTLED ON FERTILE LANDS AND SUPPORTED BY GOZ 
FUNDS AND AGRICULTURAL INPUTS.  (IN ADDITION TO THE 
CFU/ZFU/ZJRI, THE MINISTERS ALSO MET WITH WAR VETS, 
 
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                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ9254 
 
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ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AGRE-00  ACQ-00   CIAE-00  COME-00  DODE-00 
      DOTE-00  DS-00    EB-00    FAAE-00  VC-00    TEDE-00  INR-00 
      LAB-01   VCE-00   AC-01    NSAE-00  ACE-00   IRM-00   SSO-00 
      SS-00    TRSE-00  DSCC-00  DRL-02   NFAT-00  SAS-00     /004W 
                  ------------------4AC1F0  130534Z /38 
O 130437Z DEC 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0523 
INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
NSC WASHDC 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 003691 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF AND AF/S 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR FRAZER 
 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
 
PARIS FOR NEARY 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/13/06 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, EAGR, ECON, ZI 
SUBJECT: SADC MINISTERIAL COMMITTEE PLAYS IN HARARE, 
ACT II: MUCH ADO ABOUT NOTHING 
 
CHIEFS, CHURCHMEN, COMMERCIAL FARM WORKERS, ZANU-PF AND 
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PAGE 02        HARARE  03691  02 OF 02  130534Z 
MDC, BUSINESS ASSOCIATIONS, AND MEDIA REPRESENTATIVES, 
THE SAME IF A SOMEWHAT THINNER LIST THAN IN THE INITIAL 
SEPTEMBER 10 AND 11 SADC HEADS OF STATE MEETING.) 
 
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A MARSHMALLOW COMMUNIQUE 
------------------------ 
 
6.  (C) THE COMMUNIQUE (WHICH WE HAVE FAXED TO AF/S) WAS 
EVEN MORE OF A POWDER PUFF THAN THE ONE THAT EMERGED 
FROM THE SEPTEMBER SADC HEADS OF GOVERNMENT MEETING 
(REFTEL).  CHAIRPERSON LILIAN PATEL, THE MALAWIAN 
FOREIGN MINISTER, INDICATED "THAT RATHER THAN MEDIATING 
BETWEEN THE PARTIES, THE MANDATE OF THE TASK FORCE WAS 
TO FACILITATE DIALOGUE AMONG STAKEHOLDERS..."  THE 
MINISTERS, AFTER A GOZ BRIEFING, "WELCOMED THE IMPROVED 
ATMOSPHERE OF CALM AND STABILITY."  THE MINISTERS "WERE 
GRATIFIED TO LEARN THAT VIOLENCE ON THE FARMS HAD 
REDUCED SIGNIFICANTLY, AND THAT THE FEW REPORTED 
INCIDENTS WERE BEING DEALT WITH UNDER THE CRIMINAL 
JUSTICE SYSTEM, IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE RULE OF LAW, 
IRRESPECTIVE OF THE POLITICAL AFFILIATION OF THE ALLEGED 
PERPETRATORS."  THEY ALSO "WELCOMED THE SUPREME COURT 
DECISION MADE IN NOVEMBER 2001, DECLARING THAT THE 
(REFORM PROGRAM) WAS LAWFUL AND IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE 
CONSTITUTION OF THE COUNTRY." 
 
7.  (C) THE MINISTERS, IN A VERY WELCOMING MOOD, ALSO 
"WELCOMED LEGISLATIVE AND OTHER MECHANISMS PUT IN PLACE 
TO GUARD AGAINST VIOLENCE AND ENSURE TRANSPARENCY..." 
THE MINISTERS "EXPRESSED CONCERN AT DISTORTED AND 
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PAGE 03        HARARE  03691  02 OF 02  130534Z 
NEGATIVE PERCEPTION OF ZIMBABWE PROJECTED BY REGIONAL 
AND INTERNATIONAL MEDIA."  REGARDING ESTABLISHMENT OF A 
PARLIAMENTARY COMMITTEE RECOMMENDED EARLIER AT THE HEAD 
OF STATE LEVEL, "IT WAS NOTED THAT MECHANISMS WERE 
ALREADY IN PLACE FOR PARTIES TO INTERACT..."  THE 
COMMUNIQUE RECALLED THE 2000 SADC SUMMIT DECISION 
OPPOSING SANCTIONS AGAINST ZIMBABWE, REITERATED THE 
MINISTERS' OPPOSITION TO SANCTIONS, AND "CALLED UPON ALL 
CONCERNED PARTIES TO REFRAIN FROM IMPOSING SANCTIONS 
SUCH AS THE ZIMBABWE DEMOCRACY AND ECONOMIC RECOVERY 
BILL." 
 
8.  (U) THE FOLLOWING DELEGATES SIGNED THE COMMUNIQUE: 
ANGOLAN DEPUTY MINISTERS OF EXTERNAL RELATIONS AND 
AGRICULTURE SERAO AND SAMBENI AND VICE MINISTER OF 
DEFENSE RUFINO; BOTSWANA FONMIN MERAFHE; MALAWI DEFENSE 
MINSTER MUNYENYEMBE; MOZAMBICAN PRESIDENTIAL MINISTER 
MADEIRA AND DEPUTY FONMIN PATRICIO; NAMIBIA'S DEPUTY 
FONMIN KALOMOH; SOUTH AFRICAN LABOR MINISTER MDLADLANA; 
AND ZIMBABWE FONMIN MUDENGE. 
 
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COMMENT 
------ 
 
9.  (C) WE CANNOT AGREE WITH SUMBANA THAT THE VISIT WAS 
GOOD, OR ANYTHING CLOSE TO IT.  IN FACT, IT IS HARD TO 
SEE THE VISIT AS ANYTHING OTHER THAN A NON-EVENT AT 
BEST, AND AT WORST A STEP BACKWARD ON SADC'S PART FROM 
THE TOUGH ISSUES AT HAND.  AS A RESULT, THE GOZ ONCE 
AGAIN MANAGED TO CONTROL THE AGENDA AND FINAL COMMUNIQUE 
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PAGE 04        HARARE  03691  02 OF 02  130534Z 
TO ITS ADVANTAGE.  IT MAY BE TOO SOON TO WRITE THE SADC 
INITIATIVE OFF AS FAILED, BUT UNLESS FUTURE MISSIONS ARE 
WILLING TO TAKE A HARDER LINE AND OPT FOR SOLUTIONS 
RATHER THAN REGIONAL SOLIDARITY, WE DO NOT EXPECT THIS 
PROCESS TO YIELD ANY MEANINGFUL SOLUTIONS TO ZIMBABWE'S 
MULTIPLYING PROBLEMS. 
 
SULLIVAN 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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