US embassy cable - 04BRATISLAVA1043

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRATISLAVA 001043 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/16/2014 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, LO, UP 
SUBJECT: CAUTION AND UNCERTAINTY IN GOS AS UKRAINE ELECTION 
NEARS 
 
REF: STATE 240442 
 
Classified By: DCM Scott N. Thayer for reasons 1.4 B & D 
 
1. (C) Summary and Introduction: Emboffs have discussed the 
second round of presidential elections in Ukraine with 
several GOS interlocutors this week.  Expectations regarding 
outcome are divided--the Prime Minister's foreign policy 
advisor is optimistic about a Yushchenko win, while MFA 
policy planners give the nod to Yanukovich.  The MFA Director 
General for EU Affairs cautioned against hasty negative 
declarations following the election in order to avoid giving 
Kuchma an excuse for invalidating the entire election.  MFA 
Ukraine desk officer refused to speculate on the outcome, but 
predicted cooler relations with a Victor Yanukovich-led 
Ukraine.  End summary. 
 
A Call for Post-Election Caution 
-------------------------------- 
 
2.  (C) Director General for EU Affairs Frantisek Ruzicka 
expressed caution and concern to DCM and POLEC Chief November 
15 about international reaction to the second round. 
Although EU foreign ministers will "certainly" discuss the 
elction at the Nov 22 GAERC, Ruzicka worried that a premature 
negative appraisal from international observers and 
commentators might give Kuchma an opening to invalidate the 
"flawed" elections, especially if there were a Yushchenko 
victory, thus allowing him to stay in office until elections 
could be rescheduled.  With votes being counted up to ten 
days after the elections, it might be better to wait until 
the process has run its full course before making a final 
judgment.  (Comment: Given Ruzicka's near-constant engagement 
with other EU interlocutors through COREU and the CFSP 
coordination process, his comments may perhaps reflect 
concerns of other EU member states.)  Milan Jezovica, the 
PM's foreign policy advisor, rejected this concern in a 
separate conversation with DCM November 16, saying that 
Kuchma would not risk popular unrest if the election results 
were clearly disrespected. 
 
The View from the Desk 
---------------------- 
 
3.  (C) Poloff delivered reftel demarche November 16 to MFA 
Ukraine desk officer Radoslav Kusenda.  Kusenda reiterated 
that the GOS wants to see a free and fair election in Ukraine 
and remains concerned about antidemocratic actions, but did 
not see Slovakia taking a hardline stance against its eastern 
neighbor.  Slovakia will send its largest observer mission in 
its history to Ukraine and will reevaluate its foreign policy 
towards Ukraine after the ballot count. 
 
4.  (U) The GOS and Slovak NGOs observed the first round and 
will do the same for the second round vote.  108 Slovaks will 
have observed one of the two votes; 20 percent observed the 
first vote and 80 percent will observe the upcoming vote. 
Kusenda agreed with the U.S. description of Ukrainian 
pre-election and first round voting irregularities.  The GOS 
supported the OSCE statement following the first round vote. 
 
5.  (C) After the vote count is completed December 6, the GOS 
will evaluate its policy towards Ukraine.  Kusenda described 
the first round,s outcome as &administratively 
complicated.8  It was not obviously antidemocratic as in 
Belarus, he said, but not completely free and fair either. 
Any policy shifts, including visa restrictions, would be made 
in close cooperation with the EU.  He said bilateral visa 
restrictions are difficult, since Slovakia borders on 
Ukraine. 
 
6.  (C) Kusenda expected the GOS to have cooler relations 
with a Viktor Yanukovich-led Ukraine.  While both candidates 
would need to court the same internal power interests, he 
said, Yanukovich would draw more heavily on the eastern 
Ukrainian industrial class and forge strong links with 
Russia.  Victor Yushchenko would draw Ukraine closer to 
Brussels, giving the GOS a greater role in helping shape 
European policy towards Ukraine, he said.  Kusenda described 
the EU policy towards Ukraine in the last year as 
&incoherent.8 (NOTE: GOS often presents Ukraine as one of 
its two foreign policy priorities and seeks a leadership role 
on Ukrainian issues at the EU.) 
WEISER 
 
 
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