US embassy cable - 01HARARE3689

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 003689 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
PARIS FOR CHARLES NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/12/11 
TAGS: EAGR, PGOV, PINR, ZI 
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE OPPOSITION WINS A THIRD MAYORAL 
ELECTION AND LOOKS TO WIN A FOURTH 
 
CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL OFFICER TODD FAULK FOR REASONS: 
1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
1.  (U) IN DECEMBER 8-9 POLLING, THE OPPOSITION MOVEMENT 
FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC) WON ITS THIRD MAYORAL 
ELECTION IN NINE MONTHS IN THE TOWN OF CHEGUTU, WHICH IS 
ABOUT 100 KM SOUTHWEST OF HARARE IN THE TRADITIONAL 
RULING PARTY STRONGHOLD OF MASHONALAND WEST PROVINCE. 
MDC CANDIDATE BLESSING DHLAKAMA EDGED OUT THE ZANU-PF 
CANDIDATE STANLEY MAJIRI BY FEWER THAN 500 VOTES (2,900 
TO 2,452).  VOTER TURNOUT WAS ONLY 28 PERCENT OF 
REGISTERED VOTERS, BUT CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN THE FIVE 
PERCENT TURNOUT IN THE SEPTEMBER BULAWAYO MAYORAL 
CONTEST.  THE MDC ALSO WON THE APRIL MASVINGO MAYORAL 
POLL. 
 
2.  (C) STATE-CONTROLLED MEDIA PORTRAYED THE DECEMBER 8- 
9 VOTING AS MARRED BY MDC INTIMIDATION AND VIOLENCE. 
THE ZBC CLAIMED THAT TWO ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS WERE INJURED 
IN ATTACKS BY MDC YOUTH, INCLUDING ONE IN AN INCIDENT 
WHERE MDC SUPPORTERS STONED A CONVOY OF ZANU-PF VEHICLES 
THAT PASSED NEAR DHLAKAMA'S RESIDENCE.  POLICE RAIDED 
THE MDC CANDIDATE'S HOME AND ARRESTED TEN MDC SUPPORTERS 
FOLLOWING THE INCIDENT, ACCORDING TO THE ZBC.  MAJIRI, 
THE LOSING ZANU-PF CANDIDATE, STATED HE WOULD CHALLENGE 
THE ELECTION RESULT IN COURT BECAUSE OF THE POLLING-DAY 
VIOLENCE.  WE HEARED FROM OTHER SOURCES, HOWEVER, THAT 
MOST OF THE PRE-ELECTION VIOLENCE IN CHEGUTU WAS 
PERPETRATED BY ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS. 
 
LONG-DELAYED HARARE POLL SET 
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3.  (U) THE CHEGUTU WIN HELPS BUILD MDC MOMENTUM FOR THE 
HARARE MAYORAL AND COUNCIL ELECTIONS, WHICH THE SUPREME 
COURT RULED MUST TAKE PLACE BY FEBRUARY 11, 2002.  THE 
DECEMBER 7 RULING OVERTURNED A HIGH COURT JUDGMENT THAT 
HAD SET AN ELECTION DATE FOR DECEMBER 28, 2001.  CHIEF 
JUSTICE GODFREY CHIDYAUSIKU LEFT OPEN THE POSSIBILITY 
THAT THE DATE COULD BE CHANGED IF THE GOVERNMENT AMENDED 
THE LAW.  THE HARARE RESIDENTS ASSOCIATION HAD 
CHALLENGED THE GOVERNMENT IN COURT TO HOLD THE HARARE 
ELECTIONS, WHICH UNDER THE LAW, SHOULD HAVE TAKEN PLACE 
NEARLY TWO YEARS AGO.  SINCE THE LAST COUNCIL RESIGNED 
IN 1999 UNDER A CLOUD OF CORRUPTION CHARGES, HARARE HAS 
BEEN RUN BY A GOVERNMENT-APPOINTED COMMISSION. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
4.  (C) THE MDC CHEGUTU WIN SHOWS THAT THE OPPOSITION 
CONTINUES TO HOLD SWAY OVER URBAN AREAS, NOT THAT ITS 
POPULARITY IS NECESSARILY GROWING IN THE TRADITIONAL 
ZANU-PF STRONGHOLD OF MASHONALAND.  IN THE 2000 
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION, ZANU-PF WON THE LARGER CHEGUTU 
DISTRICT, WHICH IS PREDOMINANTLY RURAL, ALBEIT BY A 
RELATIVELY SLENDER MARGIN.  NONETHELESS, THE VICTORY IS 
A MORALE BOOSTER FOR AN OPPOSITION PARTY UNDER SIEGE, 
AND A MOMENTUM-BUILDER FOR THE HARARE POLL AND THE 
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION DUE TO TAKE PLACE IN MARCH 
(REPORTED SEPTEL).  THE SUPREME COURT'S RULING ON THE 
HARARE DATE HAS PROBABLY COMPLICATED THE GOZ'S ELECTION 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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PLANNING.  IT MAY BE RELUCTANT TO HOLD THE HARARE 
CONTEST -- ONE THE MDC WOULD UNDOUBTEDLY WIN -- SO SOON 
BEFORE THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION AS IT WOULD GIVE THE 
OPPOSITION EVEN MORE MOMENTUM.  THE GOZ COULD STILL 
AMEND THE LAW TO PERMIT A MAYORAL ELECTION SOME TIME 
AFTER THE PRESIDENTIAL ONE, ALTHOUGH WE HAVE SEEN NO 
INDICATION OF SUCH PLANNING TO DATE. 
 
5.  (C) HOWEVER, HARARE COULD SERVE AS AN IDEAL "TRIAL 
RUN" FOR THE GOZ TO PRACTICE ITS VOTE MANIPULATION 
TECHNIQUES AND COULD BE AN IMPORTANT BELLWETHER FOR 
VOTER TURNOUT IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.  IT COULD 
ALSO PROVIDE US VALUABLE INSIGHTS INTO THE GOZ'S LARGER 
ELECTORAL STRATEGY BY REVEALING WHAT THE GOZ PLANS TO DO 
IN REDUCING THE NUMBER OF POLLING PLACES, SEEKING TO 
FORCE VOTERS TO VOTE IN DISTRICTS DISTANT FROM THEIR 
RESIDENCES, AND IN USING VOTER ROLLS TO DISENFRANCHISE 
LIKELY OPPOSITION SUPPORTERS.  THE QUESTION OF VOTER 
TURNOUT REMAINS THE GREAT UNKNOWN.  THE MDC HAS LONG 
PREDICTED THAT A HEAVY TURNOUT BOLSTERS THEIR PROSPECTS 
AND A 5 TO 25 PERCENT URBAN TURNOUT WOULD PROBABLY 
SIGNAL THE MDC'S DOWNFALL.  IT MAY WELL BE THE CASE, 
HOWEVER, THAT MANY VOTERS HAVE CHOSEN TO DUCK THE POLLS 
AND AVOID A POSSIBLE BEATING OVER THE RELATIVELY LOW- 
STAKE MAYORAL RACES, AND ARE WAITING TO LAY DOWN THEIR 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ7566 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  03689  02 OF 02  121537Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AGRE-00  ACQ-00   CIAE-00  COME-00  DINT-00 
      DODE-00  DOTE-00  SRPP-00  DS-00    EB-00    EUR-00   FAAE-00 
      FBIE-00  VC-00    H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   LAB-01   L-00 
      VCE-00   AC-01    NSAE-00  OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    PC-01 
      PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00    TRSE-00  USIE-00 
      PMB-00   DSCC-00  DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00   SWCI-00 
        /008W 
                  ------------------4A7AD7  121538Z /38 
P 121441Z DEC 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0515 
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 003689 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
PARIS FOR CHARLES NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/12/11 
TAGS: EAGR, PGOV, PINR, ZI 
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE OPPOSITION WINS A THIRD MAYORAL 
ELECTION AND LOOKS TO WIN A FOURTH 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  03689  02 OF 02  121537Z 
BET ON THE MAIN EVENT.  END COMMENT. 
 
SULLIVAN 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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