US embassy cable - 01HARARE3688

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 003688 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
PARIS FOR CHARLES NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/12/11 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, ZI 
SUBJECT: MUGABE SAYS ZIMBABWE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WILL 
BE IN MARCH AND OBSERVERS WILL BE INVITED 

 
CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL OFFICER TODD FAULK FOR REASONS: 
1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
1.  (U) PRESIDENT MUGABE TOLD VISITING SADC MINISTERS 
AND A NIGERIAN NGO IN HARARE THAT THE PRESIDENTIAL 
ELECTION WILL TAKE PLACE IN MARCH 2002, ACCORDING TO THE 
GOVERNMENT-CONTROLLED PRINT AND BROADCAST MEDIA.  MUGABE 
DID NOT PROVIDE SPECIFIC DATES, AS THESE WILL BE SET 
LATER BY THE REGISTRAR-GENERAL.  MUGABE ALSO REPORTEDLY 
STATED THAT REPRESENTATIVES FROM SADC, THE AFRICAN 
UNION, COMMONWEALTH, ECONOMIC COMMUNITY OF WEST AFRICAN 
STATES (ECOWAS), AND INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS OF THE EU (BUT 
NOT THE EU AS A BLOC), WOULD BE INVITED TO OBSERVE THE 
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.  MUGABE'S STATEMENT DID NOT 
INCLUDE AN INVITATION FOR AMERICAN AND BRITISH 
OBSERVERS.  ACCORDING TO PRESS REPORTS, MUGABE BRIEFED 
THE SADC MINISTERS ON THE "UNITED STATES SANCTIONS BILL" 
AND OTHER "ILLEGAL" ACTIONS BY BRITAIN AND THE EU 
AGAINST ZIMBABWE.  "I WILL HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY IN 
INVITING SOME WHITE MEN HERE.  I WOULD RATHER INVITE THE 
ASIANS OR CARIBBEANS ... OF COURSE THERE ARE SOME GOOD 
COUNTRIES WITHIN THE [EU] AND THOSE WE SHALL INVITE TO 
SEND OBSERVERS IN THEIR OWN RIGHT," MUGABE IS QUOTED AS 
SAYING. 
 
NEXT STEPS IN ELECTORAL PROCESS 
------------------------------- 
 
2.  (C) MUGABE'S PRONOUNCEMENT OF A MARCH ELECTION JUST 
DAYS BEFORE THE ANNUAL ZANU-PF CONFERENCE IS DUE TO 
BEGIN SIGNALS HIS INTENTION TO USE THE ANNUAL GATHERING 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  03688  121537Z 
AS THE JUMPING OFF POINT OF HIS OFFICIAL CANDIDACY. 
SPECIFIC DATES FOR THE ELECTION ARE LIKELY TO BE 
ANNOUNCED SOON AFTER THE CONFERENCE, BUT MUST BE 
GAZETTED BY THE REGISTRAR-GENERAL BETWEEN JANUARY 2 AND 
10, 2002, ACCORDING TO THE ELECTORAL ACT.  AT THE SAME 
TIME, THE REGISTRAR-GENERAL CALLS FOR PRESIDENTIAL 
NOMINATIONS TO BE SUBMITTED TO A NOMINATION COURT, WHICH 
CAN RECEIVE THEM UNTIL JANUARY 31.  THE LAST POLLING DAY 
PERMITTED UNDER THE ELECTORAL ACT IS MARCH 17, ACCORDING 
TO THE LEGAL RESOURCES FOUNDATION, A WELL-RESPECTED 
ZIMBABWEAN NGO SPECIALIZING IN LEGAL ISSUES.  THERE MUST 
BE AT LEAST A TWO-WEEK PERIOD BETWEEN THE POLLING DAYS 
AND THE END OF THE PRESIDENT'S TERM, WHICH OCCURS ON 
MARCH 31. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
3.  (C) MUGABE'S PRONOUNCEMENT OF A MARCH ELECTION COMES 
AS NO GREAT SURPRISE.  MUGABE APPEARS INTENT ON STICKING 
TO THE ELECTION SCHEDULE SPELLED OUT IN THE CONSTITUTION 
AND ELECTORAL ACT IN AN ATTEMPT TO SHOW CRITICS HE IS A 
"TRUE DEMOCRAT."  BY OUR RECKONING, THE ELECTION IS 
LIKELY TO FALL ON THE WEEKEND OF MARCH 16-17, WHICH 
WOULD GIVE MUGABE THE MAXIMUM TIME TO ORGANIZE HIS 
SUPPORTERS AND PLAN FOR ELECTORAL CONTINGENCIES. 
ZIMBABWE'S RAINY SEASON SHOULD BE WANING BY THE MIDDLE 
OF MARCH, WHICH REDUCES THE CHANCES THAT FLOODS AND 
WASHED-OUT BRIDGES COULD KEEP MUGABE'S PREDOMINANTLY 
RURAL SUPPORTERS AWAY FROM THE POLLING BOOTHS.  THE 
TIMING MAY ALSO DEPEND ON LOOMING FOOD SHORTAGES.  THE 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  03688  121537Z 
PERIOD OF GREATEST CONCERN NOW APPEARS TO BE MARCH 
THROUGH MAY.  WE NOTE FOR THE RECORD THAT THE U.S. DID 
NOT NUMBER AMONG THOSE COUNTRIES THAT WILL BE INVITED TO 
SEND ELECTION OBSERVERS.  END COMMENT. 
 
SULLIVAN 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
>