US embassy cable - 04CARACAS3506

C O N F I D E N T I A L  CARACAS 003506 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NSC FOR CBARTON 
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD 
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/16/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, PHUM, VE 
SUBJECT: CHAVISTAS AT THE HELM IN A SEA OF RED 
 
REF: A. CARACAS 3432 
     B. CARACAS 3382 
     C. CARACAS 3431 
     D. CARACAS 3368 
 
Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor, 
for Reasons 1.4(b). 
 
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Summary 
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1. (C) October and August electoral successes have renewed 
President Hugo Chavez's mandate, placed his loyalists in most 
of the governorships and key mayoralties, and positioned the 
Chavista movement to capture an overwhelming majority in next 
year's National Assembly elections.  Chavez supporters say 
that, with the opposition atomized and oil prices sky high, 
they have few excuses for not advancing the Bolivarian 
Revolution.  Chavez has denounced an inefficient and corrupt 
bureaucracy as the reason benefits are not reaching people. 
Pro-Chavez governors, many of them ex-military, are calling 
for radical overhauls of state governments, including the 
rapid integration of GOV "mission" programs into previously 
opposition-controlled areas.  Political persecution of the 
remaining opponents -- such as the media and Sumate -- also 
appears to be in the Chavista tool box.  End Summary. 
 
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Bolivarian Expansion 
-------------------- 
 
2. (C) With President Hugo Chavez's victory in the August 15 
recall referendum and the subsequent sweep by his candidates 
of the October 31 gubernatorial and mayoral elections, Chavez 
now dominates government in Venezuela (refs a and b).  Nine 
of the 23 governors are retired military officers with ties 
to Chavez.  In addition, the executive continues to exercise 
controlling influence over Venezuela's other branches of 
government.  With opposition political parties beaten 59-41% 
in the referendum and 63-37% in the regional elections, the 
Chavistas' prospects for next year's National Assembly 
elections are favorable.  Fifth Republic Movement (MVR) 
Deputy Saul Ortega told poloff November 2 that pro-Chavez 
parties hope to increase their majority, though achieving a 
two-thirds majority would be difficult.  Opposition deputies 
fear the Chavistas could win between 120 and 135 of the 165 
deputy positions, giving Chavez a ready two-thirds majority. 
 
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No More Excuses 
--------------- 
 
3. (C) Chavez has called for sobriety in the wake of the 
regional elections victory.  He told the newly elected 
officials on November 1 it was time to close ranks and fight 
to the death against corruption, bureaucracy, and 
inefficiency, "three vices that threaten the Bolivarian 
Revolution."  Chavez emphasized the point by adding "the 
greatest enemy of the revolution is no longer the U.S., it is 
bureaucracy."  Vice President Jose Vicente Rangel said on 
November 5 that now there are no excuses not to govern. 
Opposition voices immediately seized on the GOV message, 
suggesting Rangel was admitting that Chavez had not governed 
for the last five years.  Chavez and other GOV leaders have 
stated that they must try to win over the four million 
persons who voted for the opposition.  Christian Democrat 
(COPEI) Deputy Cesar Perez Vivas told reporters November 5 
that governance was now the exclusive responsibility of the 
MVR, adding that no type of hegemony is healthy for any 
society.  Rangel noted that "to govern without an opposition 
is the most annoying thing in the world," and called for new 
leadership from within the opposition "capable of dialogue 
with the government." 
 
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Change is Good 
-------------- 
 
4. (C) The "three vices" -- corruption, bureaucracy, and 
inefficiency -- have become the mantra for the newly elected 
pro-Chavez governors and mayors.  Upon taking office, most 
denounced their predecessors for allegQ administrative 
irregularities.  In Miranda State, for example, Governor 
 
Diosdado Cabello declared the health and education sectors to 
be in a state of emergency.  Cabello's supporters on Miranda 
State's legislative council told reporters they are 
considering granting Cabello power to legislate by decree. 
Patria Para Todos (PPT), the third largest pro-Chavez party, 
has staked out its role as the GOV conscience.  PPT Secretary 
General Jose Albornoz told poloff November 4 his party is 
organizing "brigades" in every state and municipality to 
monitor government programs and spending.  Alberto "Chino" 
Carias, an aide to incoming Metropolitan Caracas Mayor Juan 
Barreto, told poloff November 5 they planned to use "social 
intelligence" networks whereby political sympathizers inform 
on the misconduct of police and, in the case of public 
hospitals, medical personnel.  Carias, a member of the 
radical Tupamaro armed political group, also said he is 
participating in a committee to restructure and "improve the 
image" of the Metropolitan Police. 
 
5. (U) Pro-Chavez elected leaders in previously held 
opposition areas are rushing to integrate the GOV's various 
"mission" programs into state and local government plans.  In 
Metropolitan Caracas, for example, officials plan to convert 
existing public health clinics into outpatient care offices 
of Barrio Adentro, the medical assistance program operated by 
Cuban personnel in poor neighborhoods.  One of the first acts 
in office of Monagas State Governor Jose Gregorio Briceno was 
to invite the Cuban doctors of Barrio Adentro into all state 
hospitals and clinics, asserting that "exclusion and 
stinginess" had ended in his state.  In Miranda, state 
officials announced that all state schools would be 
integrated into the "Bolivarian School" program, which 
reportedly adds a revolutionary slant to subject matter.  The 
officials also announced that school facilities would soon be 
opened to Missions Robinson and Rivas (primary and secondary 
education for adults). 
 
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If They Don't Join You, Beat Them! 
---------------------------------- 
 
6. (C) The GOV continues to intimidate potential Chavez 
opponents using state powers.  Outgoing Metropolitan Caracas 
Mayor Alfredo Pena is in hiding (rumored to be in Miami) 
after charges that he misappropriated funds and was the 
intellectual author of killings during the events of April 
2002 (ref c).  Representatives of the NGO Sumate continue to 
face conspiracy charges, though the case has been delayed by 
an intervention from the Supreme Court (ref d).  Political 
crimes prosecutor Danilo Anderson is also working his way 
through the lists of people the GOV associates with the April 
2002 coup and the so-called Carmona Decree.  Coordinadora 
Democratica operations chief Enrique Naime was "escorted" by 
GOV intelligence police (DISIP) to court in the early morning 
of November 9, where he was fined for defamation of National 
Electoral Council officials in statements he made during the 
2000 mega-elections.  Furthermore, the pro-Chavez majority in 
the National Assembly is also proceeding at full steam on 
approving the Social Responsibility Law, which threatens to 
restrict what private television and radio outlets can 
report. 
 
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Chavez Lays It Out 
------------------ 
 
7. (U) In an interview aired on state television on November 
11, Chavez  spelled out the lines his government after the 
August and October victories.  Quoted in the pro-GOV daily 
Diario Vea, Chavez said the Bolivarian Revolution would have: 
 
-- strengthened popular organizations, such as the "electoral 
patrols" and "electoral battle units"; 
-- new GOV institutions with social dimensions, such as the 
new Popular Economy Ministry; 
-- a humanistic "social economy" transcending the "perverse" 
capitalist model; 
-- increased production through "endogenous hubs"; 
-- a multipolar foreign policy, accelerated with Chavez's 
upcoming visits to Spain, Russia, China, and Iran; 
-- development of a new military structure; 
-- an electoral strategy in which pro-government political 
parties should elect their candidates; 
-- the creation of a new "Anticorruption Moral Power"; and 
-- a more efficient communications strategy incorporating 
 
community broadcasters. 
 
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Comment:  Happy Red Year! 
------------------------- 
 
8. (C) With high oil revenues added to this rosy scenario, 
expectations among Chavez supporters are high; a state 
television program host even ends his show "Feliz Ano Rojo!" 
or "Happy Red Year!".  Chavez is consolidating his base and 
pinning down his enemies.  He has protected his flanks in his 
own political parties by having in governorships nine 
ex-military colleagues and his father, who are more loyal to 
Chavez than to the MVR.  The newly elected Chavistas are not 
shying away from the central government, which we expect will 
further dominate the Venezuelan political scene.  While some 
GOV leaders are counseling reflection and prudence in flexing 
their new muscle, the Bolivarian Revolution is indeed rolling 
along.  There remains pending, however, a clear definition of 
what that revolution really means, other than a collection of 
reformist and populist measures as determined by Chavez 
himself.  There are signs of jockeying among the pro-Chavez 
parties, but no serious indications so far of infighting 
among Chavez's core team.  Absent an external economic shock 
or major social unrest, it looks like smooth sailing for 
President Chavez -- but as the GOV admits, now it has to 
govern and to fulfill the expectations of the 60 percent who 
voted for Chavez. 
 
Brownfield 
 
 
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      2004CARACA03506 - CONFIDENTIAL