US embassy cable - 04MAPUTO1491

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MAPUTO 001491 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
STATE FOR AF/S - HTREGER 
MCC FOR BRIGGS AND GAULL 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, MZ, Elections 04 
SUBJECT: CORRECTION COPY: MOZAMBIQUE 2004 GENERAL ELECTIONS: OCT 
6 - NOV 15 UPDATE 
 
REFS: A. MAPUTO 1406 
 
B. MAPUTO 1371 
C. MAPUTO 1341 
? 
1. (U) Not for internet distribution. 
 
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Contents 
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2. Summary and Comment 
3. Presidential Candidates: And Then There Were Five... 
6. Lists Finalized for Parliamentary Elections 
10. Relative Peace on the Campaign Trail 
12. Media Coverage More Balanced 
14. Comment 
 
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Summary and Comment 
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2. (SBU) Five presidential candidates and 21 political parties 
will stand in presidential and parliamentary elections on 
December 1 2, the third in Mozambique's history. The ruling 
FRELIMO and RENAMO remain the leading parties, though two small 
parties may take some support from them. Campaigning, which 
began October 17, has proceeded relatively calmly, with fewer and 
less violent incidents than in previous campaigns. Media 
coverage has also been more balanced, with RENAMO presidential 
candidate Afonso Dhlakama and others receiving significant 
coverage even in state-run media. Despite the continuing 
disagreement between the EU and the elections commission over 
observer access (septel), this year's elections may be calmer and 
better organized than the two previous Presidential elections. 
End Summary and Comment. 
 
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Presidential Candidates: And Then There Were Five... 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
3. (U) The Constitutional Council accepted five of the eight 
presidential nominations for the December 1 - 2 presidential 
elections. The five candidates are Armando Guebuza, FRELIMO (the 
ruling party); Afonso Dhlakama, RENAMO; Raul Domingos, Party for 
Peace, Development and Democracy (PDD); Carlos Reis, Mozambique 
National Union (UNAMO); and Yaqub Sibindy, Independent Party of 
Mozambique (PIMO). Three candidates were rejected because they 
did not present the required 10,000 valid supporting signatures 
from registered voters. The three were Neves Serrano, 
Progressive Liberal Party of Mozambique (PPLM); Joaquim Nhota, 
Democratic Liberal Party of Mozambique (PADELIMO); and Jose 
Massinga, National Democratic Party (PANADE). None of the three 
had been expected to have any effect on the election. 
 
4. (SBU) The two main candidates, Armando Guebuza of FRELIMO and 
Afonso Dhlakama of RENAMO, both are under pressure to win. 
FRELIMO liberated the country from the Portuguese and has ruled 
since independence in 1975, and some Mozambicans continue to see 
little distinction between the party and the government. As a 
result, a loss by Guebuza, who has less personal popularity than 
eighteen-year President Joaquim Chissano but has been campaigning 
for months, would be an historic defeat. If Dhlakama loses for 
the third consecutive time, RENAMO members could demand that he 
resign as leader of the party, which he has led since it was a 
guerrilla group fighting the FRELIMO government in the sixteen- 
year civil war. 
 
5. (SBU) The two main candidates also face a potential loss of 
votes to small party candidates. Following gains made during the 
2003 municipal elections, PIMO candidate Yacub Sibindy could take 
votes from FRELIMO in the predominantly Muslim areas of Nampula, 
Cabo Delgado and Zambezia. PDD's Raul Domingos, a longtime 
RENAMO stalwart who was the party's negotiator in the 1992 peace 
accords, may walk away with RENAMO votes among the central 
provinces of Sofala, Manica, Tete and Zambezia, where his Sena 
tribe is strong. Carlos Reis has attracted less support and has 
so far limited his campaigning to Zambezia. (Nampula and 
Zambezia are the country's most populous provinces, combining for 
almost 40 percent of registered voters. Maputo city and Maputo 
province together have less than 12 percent.) In theory, if 
Guebuza and Dhlakama receive almost equal support, the other 
candidates could get enough so that neither receives 50 percent, 
forcing a runoff. There has been little discussion of and no 
preparations for this possibility, however. 
 
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Lists Finalized for Parliamentary Elections 
------------------------------------------- 
6. (U) Voters will have to choose among a long list of parties in 
the parliamentary elections, as 21 political parties and 
coalitions have met the conditions to stand. All 250 
parliamentary seats are at stake in the December general 
elections; 248 in Mozambique and two in the emigrant 
constituencies of Africa and Europe. This resulted from the 
decision of the National Elections Commission (CNE) to register 
voters in Africa and Europe for the first time and allow them to 
vote for presidential candidates and elect legislators. In 1999, 
the 250 seats were split 133 for FRELIMO, which received 48.88 
percent of vote, to 117 for RENAMO, which received 38.55 percent 
of the vote. 
 
7. (U) The number of parliamentary seats gained by each party is 
based on the proportion of votes won in each province. For 
example, if FRELIMO wins 50 percent of the vote in Nampula, which 
has 50 seats available, the party will gain 25 seats in 
parliament. A party or coalition must win at least 5 percent of 
the national vote in order to gain a seat; if it does not, its 
votes are not counted in the proportional allocation of seats in 
each province. The Democratic Union of Mozambique (UDEMO) took 5 
percent of the vote and 9 seats in 1994, while no single small 
party gained the 5 percent need to win a seat in 1999. The PDD 
and PIMO won individual seats in five municipal assemblies in the 
November 2003 municipal elections and stand the best chance of 
the small parties of winning Assembly seats. 
 
8. (SBU) On October 22, the CNE confirmed that presidential 
candidates may also stand for seats in parliament. RENAMO party 
members had challenged the validity of the candidacies of Raul 
Domingos (PDD), Yaqub Sibindy (PIMO) and Carlos Reis (PANADE) 
because the three were also standing in the parliamentary 
election. The CNE confirmed, however, that though the law 
prohibits a person from serving as both President and a member of 
parliament, there is no ban on standing for both posts and 
choosing one if needed. Although yet to be put in practice, it 
has long been assumed that losing presidential candidates could 
serve in parliament. Dhlakama has not done this in any of his 
three presidential bids, though some argue that his status would 
be enhanced if he were head of the opposition bench in 
parliament. 
 
9. (SBU) There were some noteworthy developments in the official 
delegate lists released on October 14. Prime Minister Luisa 
Diogo heads the FRELIMO delegate list in Zambezia province and 
current Minister of Transportation Tomaz Augusto Salomo heads 
the list in Manica province. (This does not mean that they are 
not candidates for ministerial positions if Guebuza wins, as 
those chosen as ministers have the option of resigning their 
parliamentary seats.) On the RENAMO side, outspoken senior 
RENAMO member Rahil Khan was left off the delegate list in Maputo 
to make room for new director of the RENAMO election office, 
Eduardo Namburete, described by many as an up-and-comer within 
the Renamo ranks. Since being named to office in July 2004, 
Namburete has accompanied and advised Dhlakama on the campaign 
trail and is believed to be behind RENAMO's apparent change in 
campaign tactics away from belittling FRELIMO. Unlike in past 
campaigns, this year Dhlakama has avoided direct criticism of 
FRELIMO and instead has focused what he intends to do as 
president. Another new face on the RENAMO list is Dr. Manuel 
Araujo, a British-trained political scientist. 
 
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Relative Peace on the Campaign Trail 
------------------------------------ 
10. (U) Official campaigning by political parties and 
presidential candidates began on October 17 and will run through 
November 28. There have been some reports of political 
intimidation and minor violence, mostly rock-throwing, between 
opposing parties in hotspots like Nampula and Tete. One of the 
more serious incidents occurred on Ilha de Mocambique, off the 
coast in Nampula, where FRELIMO members reportedly attacked the 
home of RENAMO Mayor Gulamo Mamudo. (Note: Ilha was one of the 
five mayorships RENAMO won in the 2003 municipal elections. End 
note.) There was one fatal shooting that may have had a 
political aspect, but the circumstances were not clear, and 
neither party has made it a campaign issue. Nevertheless, 
overall the campaign appears to be running smoothly, with 
significantly fewer and less violent incidents than in previous 
years. 
 
11. (U) Both main contenders in the presidential race, Guebuza 
and Dhlakama, have been active campaigners, visiting cities 
throughout the country and campaigning in potentially hostile 
terrain. Guebuza recently went to Dhlakama's home province of 
Sofala, while Dhlakama toured the southern city of Matola, a 
FRELIMO stronghold. Guebuza promises to fight absolute poverty 
and corruption, while rebuilding Mozambique's industrial and 
economic infrastructure. Dhlakama often claims in his speeches 
that he will build a genuine rule of law in Mozambique by truly 
separating the state from the ruling party. The PDD's Domingos 
is pledging dozens of changes to state services, making education 
reform his top priority. PIMO's campaign platform has focused on 
the need to promote moral values, while UNAMO seeks to address 
the development asymmetry between north and south through the 
establishment of a federal system of government. 
 
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Media Coverage More Balanced 
---------------------------- 
12. (SBU) Press coverage of this year's election campaign has 
proved more balanced than in past elections. The public 
television station TVM, traditionally FRELIMO-biased, has been 
giving Dhlakama and other opposition parties significantly more - 
though still not equal - coverage than in previous campaigns. A 
Dhlakama statement espousing the need to separate the party from 
the state, which likely would not have reached the television 
public in the past, was recently aired on TVM, and TVM has aired 
several interviews with a PDD political commission member. Many 
attribute TVM's new tone to the public uproar that followed its 
decision not to broadcast a paid advertisement for a book that 
offered a version of the struggle for independence that differed 
from FRELIMO's version. TVM staff have privately conceded that 
the order not to broadcast the advertisement came from the 
FRELIMO Central Committee. (Note: Several senior journalists and 
editors from pro-government outlets like "Noticias," TVM, AIM, 
and "Domingo" are said to be members of the FRELIMO Electoral 
Campaign Office. End note.) The private television station STV, 
which was not operating during the 1999 campaign, has provided 
balanced coverage of the main parties. In both 1999 general 
elections and the 2003 municipal elections, public-owned Radio 
Mozambique was praised for its balanced reporting. Its coverage 
of the 2004 electoral campaign continues to be objective, and it 
and TVM provide the range of political parties access for party 
messages to voters. 
 
13. (SBU) Despite the headway, some issues remain. Both sides of 
the equation - journalists and political parties -- have lodged 
complaints about access to candidates and media outlets, 
respectively. The privately-owned weekly "Zambeze," which tends 
to be relatively objective and balanced in its reporting, 
recently complained that Guebuza's campaign officials refused to 
"embed" one of its reporters in a campaign delegation, citing 
logistical limitations. 
 
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Comment 
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14. (SBU) Allegations of fraud are a fixture in Mozambique's 
electoral history, and the continuing dispute between the CNE and 
the EU over observer access to vote tabulation (septel) is reason 
for concern. However, with the campaign running relatively 
peacefully, a new electoral law in place (ref C), and increased 
experience in electoral administration, these elections may be 
calmer and better organized than those of 1994 and 1999. End 
comment. 
LA LIME