US embassy cable - 04AMMAN9153

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 009153 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR NEA/ELA; NEA/PA, INR/NESA, R/MR, I/GNEA, B/BXN, B/BRN, 
NEA/PPD, NEA/IPA FOR ALTERMAN 
USAID/ANE/MEA 
LONDON FOR GOLDRICH 
 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
 
TAGS: KMDR, JO 
SUBJECT:  JORDANIAN PUBLIC AND MEDIA REACTION TO PRESIDENT BUSH'S 
RE-ELECTION 
 
 
1.  OUTSIDE RULING CIRCLES, POST'S JORDANIAN CONTACTS REACTED 
WITH SUBDUED EMOTIONS TO THE RE-ELECTION OF PRESIDENT BUSH. MOST 
REMAIN HIGHLY CRITICAL OF U.S. POLICIES TOWARDS THE ARAB-ISRAELI 
CONFLICT AND IRAQ, BUT DOUBT THAT A KERRY ADMINISTRATION WOULD 
HAVE PURSUED SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT POLICIES.  SEVERAL MEMBERS 
OF PARLIAMENT EXPRESSED DISAPPOINTMENT, AND ONE UNIVERSITY 
PROFESSOR SAID HE BELIEVES THE U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO PURSUE 
"AGGRESSIVE" POLICIES, ESPECIALLY IN IRAQ. 
 
2.  MOST JORDANIAN PRESS COMMENTATORS DECRIED THE BUSH REELECTION 
AS THE REINFORCEMENT OF A "UNILATERALIST", OR "CHRISTIAN-RIGHT" 
DIRECTION IN U.S. FOREIGN POLICY.  SOME CYNICS, ON THE OTHER 
HAND, WELCOMED THE BUSH VICTORY WHICH, ACCORDING TO THEM, WOULD 
ALIENATE U.S. ALLIES AND THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY, AND 
EVENTUALLY CREATE INTERNATIONAL PRESSURE THAT WOULD CHANGE THE 
U.S. COURSE.  BUT OTHER PRESS COMMENTATORS SAID THAT THEY HAD 
BEEN HOPING FOR A KERRY VICTORY IN ORDER TO PUNISH PRESIDENT BUSH 
"FOR HIS POLICIES REGARDING IRAQ AND THE PALESTINIANS." 
 
3.  SENIOR OFFICIALS WITHIN THE GOJ AND THE PALACE, ON THE OTHER 
HAND, WERE PLEASED WITH THE ELECTION RESULTS, AS WERE MANY REGIME 
STALWARTS, WHO VIEW THE U.S. RELATIONSHIP AS ESSENTIAL TO 
JORDAN'S STABILITY.  SENATE PRESIDENT ZAID RIFAI, FOR EXAMPLE, 
EXPRESSED HIS SATISFACTION TO CHARGE WITH THE OUTCOME OF THE 
ELECTION. 
 
4.  FOLLOWING ARE SOME REPRESENTATIVE SAMPLES OF EDITORIAL 
COMMENTARIES ON THE RE-ELECTION OF PRESIDENT BUSH 
 
--   A LETTER THAT WILL NOT BE READ BY THE WINNING PRESIDENT 
 
YASSER ABOU HILALEH WROTE IN THE DAILY AL-GHAD ON NOVEMBER 4: "I 
WRITE TO THE PRESIDENT JUST FOR THE SAKE OF HAVING DONE MY BIT, 
KNOWING THAT HIS ADVISERS WOULD NOT UNEARTH MY ARTICLE AMONG THE 
PILES OF WHAT WILL BE WRITTEN, AND THAT THEY WOULD NOT FIND TIME 
TO SYNOPSIZE AND TRANSLATE IT.  WITH ALL MY PRAYERS FOR A MIRACLE 
THAT LEADS TO MR. BUSH'S DOWNFALL, I SAY TO HIM: `ARAB AND MUSLIM 
PEOPLE ARE UNHAPPY ABOUT YOUR REELECTION, THOUGH WE ARE CERTAIN 
THAT YOUR RIVAL, KERRY WOULD NOT BE BETTER IN DEALING WITH US. 
WE WANTED TO PUNISH YOU FOR THE ENMITY THAT YOU BEAR TOWARDS US, 
NOT TO REWARD YOUR RIVAL FOR THE ENMITY THAT WOULD BE FORTHCOMING 
HAD HE WON.  SO WHAT ARE WE TO DO AFTER YOUR RE-ELECTION? THE 
PEOPLES WILL CONTINUE TO BURN YOU IN EFFIGY AND TO DEMONSTRATE 
AGAINST YOUR POLICIES.  OUR RULERS, ON THE OTHER HAND, WILL BE 
EXTRA CAREFUL AND IMPLEMENT YOUR REFORM PROGRAM TO THE LETTER, 
BECAUSE THEY KNOW FULL WELL THAT YOU TOPPLED TWO REGIMES IN YOUR 
FIRST TERM." 
 
--   THE BALANCE SHEET ON FOUR HARSH YEARS 
 
JAMIL AL-NIMRI WROTE IN THE DAILY AL-ARAB AL-YAWM: "THE BETTER 
AND MORE EDUCATED AMERICA, LEADING NEWSPAPERS, THE EDUCATED, 
ARTISTS, ALL FOUGHT AGAINST BUSH; BUT IN THE END, IGNORANCE AND 
FEAR HAD THE LAST WORD.  NOW WE HAVE TO LIVE WITH THE RIGHT-WING 
RELIGIOUS REACTIONARY WAVE THAT ANGERED THE WORLD, AND THAT IS 
FEEDING ANOTHER WAVE THAT IS ITS MIRROR IMAGE IN THE ARAB AND 
ISLAMIC WORLD.  SO WHAT WILL OUR LEADERS DO?  SINCE BUSH FEELS 
THAT THEIR REGIMES ARE UNDEMOCRATIC AND SHOULD REFORM, IN ORDER 
TO STOP BREEDING TERRORISM, LET THEM PICK UP THE CHALLENGE, 
INSTEAD OF PLEADING FOR UNDERSTANDING.  LET THEM ALLOW DEMOCRACY 
TO HAVE ITS WORD; AND SINCE WE NEED TO PUT UP WITH WHATEVER 
AMERICAN BALLOTS PRODUCE, LET AMERICA DO THE SAME. WE DO NOT 
EXPECT A POSITIVE RESPONSE TO THIS ADVICE, WHICH WILL BE ALL THE 
WORSE BECAUSE THE REGIMES WILL BE AL THE MORE STUCK BETWEEN AN 
ARROGANT AMERICAN POLICY AND AN ANGRY AND FRUSTRATED PUBLIC 
OPINION.  THE RESULTS OF FOUR YEARS OF THIS SITUATION MAY BE 
UNPREDICTABLE. 
 
--   BUSH'S VICTORY AND ITS SIGNIFICANCE 
 
MOHAMMAD ABOU RUMMAN WROTE IN THE DAILY AL-GHAD: "WHAT WE AS 
MUSLIMS CAN FEEL IN THE REELECTION OF BUSH AND ITS EFFECT ON 
AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY IS THE DOMINANCE OF THE CULTURAL AND 
RELIGIOUS ASPECT IN THE NEO-CONSERVATIVES' VISION AND 
ORIENTATION.  THIS WAS POINTED OUT RECENTLY BY BRZEZINSKI WHO 
DESCRIBED BUSH AND HIS TEAM AS APPEARING TO SEEK TO LEAD A HOLY 
INTERNATIONAL ALLIANCE AGAINST ISLAM, AND TO PORTRAY THE WARS 
AGAINST MUSLIM STATES AS CRUSADES.  THIS STATE OF AFFAIRS IS NOT 
SURPRISING, GIVEN THAT THE IDEOLOGICAL AND POLITICAL MENTORS OF 
THE NEO-CONSERVATIVES ARE PEOPLE SUCH AS BERNARD LOUIS, SAMUEL 
HUNTINGTON, AND OTHERS WITH EXTREMIST VISIONS REGARDING ISLAM." 
 
--   PRESIDENT BUSH AND THE SOLUTION ON THE PALESTINIAN FRONT 
 
HUSSEIN ABOU RUMMAN WROTE IN THE PRO-GOVERNMENT DAILY AL-RAI ON 
NOVEMBER 9: "THERE IS NO ROOM TO BANK ON THE AMERICANS OR EVEN 
THE EUROPEANS TO HELP US ACHIEVE PEACE ON THE PALESTINIAN FRONT. 
THE WHITE HOUSE WILL IMMERSE ITSELF IN THE PALESTINIAN-ISRAELI 
CONFLICT GIVING THE IMPRESSION THAT IT HAS A SPECIFIC AGENDA OF 
ITS OWN, WHICH WOULD BE INACCURATE SINCE IT WILL BE DRIVEN BY 
SHARON'S PLAN FOR A UNILATERAL WITHDRAWAL, WHICH HE SEES AS THE 
END OF THE PALESTINIAN CAUSE, NOT THE START OF THE SOLUTION." 
 
--   WHY WE ARE HAPPY WITH BUSH'S VICTORY AND KERRY'S DEFEAT 
 
YASSER ZA'ATREH WROTE IN THE ISLAMIST WEEKLY AS-SABEEL ON 
NOVEMBER 9:  "WHAT WE SHOULD REMEMBER IS THAT AN ENEMY WHO IS 
STUPID, WHO MAKES MANY MISTAKES, AND WHO MIRES HIS COUNTRY IN 
MANY ADVENTURES HERE AND THERE THAT DISSIPATE ITS POWER, IS 
PREFERABLE TO A WISE ENEMY WHO PLAYS THE GAME INTELLIGENTLY. 
THIS IS WHY WE PREFERRED BUSH AND WHY WE ARE HAPPY THAT HE WON, 
WITH A CLEAR VICTORY, SO THAT HE MAY BE MORE CONFIDENT AS HE 
PERSISTS IN HIS POLICIES AND HIS ERRORS."