US embassy cable - 04LAGOS2290

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 002290 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/W, INR, DRL 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/14/2009 
TAGS: PREL, KDEM, NI, PGOV, PHUM 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: POLITICAL UPDATE FROM THE SOUTH 
 
REF: A. LAGOS 2288 
 
     B. LAGOS 2277 
     C. LAGOS 2227 
 
Classified By: Consul General Brian Browne per 1.4 b and d 
 
1.  (C) Summary: Abia State Governor Kalu has announced that 
he will run for President in 2007. Kalu is being partially 
financed by VP Atiku, who likely is using the abrasive 
Southeastern governor as a stalking horse.  Meanwhile, 
Senator Nzeribe is bankrolling the very long-shot 
presidential campaign of Governor Udenwa of Imo State -- 
placing these two Igbo governors on a collision course. 
According to sources, Nzeribe wants to occupy the Imo 
Governor's mansion in 2007.  Lagos State Governor Tinubu and 
the South West Chairman of the People's Democratic Party 
(PDP) George continue to inveigh the other, with George 
accusing Tinubu of instigating the planned November 16 
national labor strike to embarrass President Obasanjo. 
Tinubu has vehemently denied George's allegation.  Privately 
Tinubu told us he would maintain law and order in Lagos 
during the strike, despite disagreeing with Obasanjo's 
deregulation policy.  The All People's Grand Alliance (APGA) 
is hopeful (but perhaps not very realistic) that 
soon-to-be-concluded court cases disputing the 2003 
gubernatorial races in Enugu and Anambra states will redound 
to the party's benefit.  End Summary. 
 
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Igbo Governors Stake Claims for 2007 Presidency 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
2. (C) The flamboyant governor of Abia State, Orji Kalu, has 
announced publicly his intention to seek the 2007 PDP 
presidential nomination.  As ambitious as he is bombastic, 
Kalu hopes to capitalize on the incessant agitation in the 
Southeast for an Igbo presidential candidate.  By seeking the 
mantle, he also hopes to refurbish his status as an upcoming 
youthful Igbo leader.  This image has been undermined by a 
skein of scandals plaguing Kalu's second term and by the 
rising popularity of the Movement for the Actualization of 
the Sovereign State of Biafra (MASSOB) and APGA in the 
Southeast -- two groups that also lay claim to the political 
voice of the Igbo.   Sources tell us that Kalu has been 
telephoning many of the Nigeria's political literati 
informing them of his plans.  Kalu has not been completely 
discreet regarding his backing, intimating to more than one 
person that VP Atiku is helping to finance his campaign. 
 
(Comment:  If Kalu's claim concerning Atiku is true, Atiku is 
playing one of several possible versions of a cynical, if 
astute, political game.  Atiku may be using Kalu as a 
diversion to shift President Obasanjo's attention away from 
Atiku and toward the irascible Kalu who the President 
probably dislikes more than he dislikes VP Atiku.  If this is 
the case, Kalu may be too taken with himself to induce that 
he is an expendable weapon in Atiku's armory.  Alternatively, 
Kalu and Atiku could have reached a gentleman's agreement 
whereby Kalu agreed to be the battering ram with the 
understanding that should Atiku be offered a presidential 
slot on the party ticket, Kalu would be offered the VP 
position.  The fault in that plan is that neither actor is a 
gentleman and such an agreement would crumble at the 
slightest instance that it no longer served one of the 
player's optimal interests.  End Comment.) 
 
3.  (C)  Meanwhile, Igbo sources indicate that millionaire 
senator Arthur Nzeribe is bankrolling the long-shot 
presidential aspirations of Imo State Governor Udenwa. 
Nzeribe's actions are not borne of affection for the Imo 
governor.  The crafty Nzeribe is known to be pining to occupy 
the governor's mansion in Owerri, capital of Imo.  By 
dangling a picture of the presidential mansion in front of 
the taciturn Udenwa Nzeribe hopes Udenwa will turn the keys 
to Imo over to him in 2007. 
 
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Lagos State Governor and PDP SW Chairman In War of Words; 
Governor Denies Agitating for National Strike 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
4.  (SBU)  Over the past couple of weeks, the local press has 
been replete with recriminations between Lagos State Governor 
Ahmed Tinubu and PDP SW Chairman Bode George, a staunch 
Obasanjo ally.  George has gone so far as to accuse Tinubu of 
bankrolling the scheduled November 16 national strike in an 
effort to embarrass Obasanjo's administration.  George has 
also threatened to "deal with" Tinubu.  Tinubu has vehemently 
denied George's allegation and has said that he takes neither 
kindly nor lightly George's threats.  (Comment:  George has a 
reputation of political rough-housing.  While nothing is 
proven, his critics link him to many of the incidents of 
violence in the Southwest against Obasanjo's political 
opponents.  End Comment.) 
 
5.  (C) Tinubu told the Consul General the last thing he 
wanted was violence to occur in Lagos as a result of the 
strike.  Not only would it result in potential loss of life 
or limb, it would be injurious to business investment. 
Moreover, he did not want to give Obasanjo a pretext to 
intervene in Lagos.  Consequently Tinubu said he would do all 
that he could to ensure that things did not "get out of 
control" during the strike.  He said that he had spoken with 
the police and instructed them not to behave too 
aggressively.  He also said he talked to student leaders and 
the market women's association, in which his mother wields 
significant influence.  Tinubu criticized Obasanjo's method 
of fuel price deregulation, arguing that instead of creating 
a "palliative committee" after-the-fact, Obasanjo, using 
excess oil revenues, should have provided an economic 
stimulus package contemporaneous to the price increase, which 
would have better mitigated the hardships resulting from the 
price hike. 
 
6.  (C) Overall, Tinubu characterized Obasanjo as a "poor 
strategist."  The president, he said, should have moved to 
solidify a southern base across party lines.  This would have 
isolated his northern rivals -- the real threat.  However, 
since the President is incapable of tolerating and 
incorporating dissenting viewpoints, the south is more 
fractured than ever, with the exception that most people are 
now against Obasanjo, Tinubu said.  Tinubu confirmed that he 
and VP Atiku were talking about "their future."  All options 
are open, he said.  Tinubu also believed that the President 
was still toying with a third term option (reftels). 
 
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Courts to give justice to APGA? 
------------------------------- 
 
7. (C) Peter Obi, the All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) 
candidate believed to have won the 2003 Anambra gubernatorial 
race told us the court case contesting the election results 
is progressing well.  Obi has also been a frequent flyer to 
Abuja lately where he is said have had discussions with 
millionaire businessman Chris Uba.  Uba is widely believed to 
have financed the violence that engulfed Anambra state last 
week, which resulted in the razing of numerous prominent 
government facilities, including the governor's mansion. (ref 
B)  It is unlikely that Uba would have engaged in such a 
brazen gambit just to usher Obi into the governor's mansion 
-- at least not yet.  Uba and other allied kingmakers are 
probably interested in someone more pliant than the 
independent-minded Obi. 
 
8. (C) According to an APGA insider who lives in Enugu, the 
State Security Service (SSS) reportedly stopped Enugu State 
Governor Nnamani at the Abuja airport as he was attempting to 
leave the country with five - seven million dollars.  The 
funds were handed over to President Obasanjo who read Nnamani 
the riot act.  This incident may influence the already 
on-going court case protesting the 2003 elections in Enugu. 
APGA is also believed to have been the legitimate winner in 
that state. 
BROWNE