US embassy cable - 04DUBLIN1686

C O N F I D E N T I A L DUBLIN 001686 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/12/2014 
TAGS: PREL, EI, NIPP 
SUBJECT: PEACE PROCESS:  IRELAND/UK TO SET NOVEMBER 24 
DEADLINE 
 
Classified By: AMB JAMES KENNY FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D 
 
Summary 
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 1.  (C)  On November 14, Michael Collins, advisor to PM 
Ahern, told Amb Kenny that Ireland and the UK had just agreed 
a timetable for the Northern Ireland peace process.  On 
Wednesday, November 17, the governments will present papers 
to the parties (the Irish will present to Sinn Fein and the 
British to DUP).  The parties will then have until November 
24 to respond.  On November 26, the two prime ministers will 
hold a joint press conference in Belfast, either announcing a 
deal, if one has been reached, or describing to the public 
what the deal could have been.  They hope the public then 
would pressure the parties to take the deal.  Collins 
described the two governments as being perfectly in sync, and 
in agreement that what is on offer now from Sinn Fein should 
be taken.  He said it was "surreal" that a deal has not yet 
been reached given the significance of Sinn Fein's offer and 
the fact that points of disagreement are very minor.  The 
problem, he said, is DUP reluctance.  The key is to bring the 
Rev. Ian Paisley on board.  This, he said, would be easier to 
do if the IRA would agree to publish photos of materiel as 
part of the decommissioning process. He asked that the USG 
raise this matter with Sinn Fein.  End Summary 
 
DUP named biggest obstacle to deal 
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2. (C)  Collins said the main problem now is DUP's reluctance 
to agree to anything before elections.  Both governments 
believe Paisley holds the key and that if he agrees, he can 
bring the rest of his party along. DUP, Collins said, already 
has agreed to all but one word of the IRA statement.  The 
only outstanding issue in the IRA statement is whether IRA 
will agree to define itself as being in a "peaceful mode" 
following decommissioning.  As for decommissioning, Collins 
said the parties have agreed that two independent witnesses 
would be allowed, but have not agreed on what the witnesses 
could say publicly.  More significantly, the Irish believe 
the Rev Ian Paisley is unlikely to accept a deal unless IRA 
agrees to publish photographs of materiel.  Sinn Fein has 
told the GOI that IRA twice has refused to publish photos. 
Collins said it would be very helpful if the U.S. would weigh 
in with Sinn Fein.  (The proposal is for the IRA to take 
photos of the materiel, with witnesses present, before 
decommissioning, not of the decommissioning itself.  They 
would only be made public after an Executive is formed.) 
 
Timeline if a deal is reached 
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3.  (C)  Collins said that if a deal is reached, four 
statements will follow:  the IRA's statement on 
decommissioning; the UK's statement on demilitarization and 
"On the Runs"; a DUP statement accepting a timeline for 
devolution of policing and justice; and a Sinn Fein statement 
agreeing to joint policing.  The governments would foresee 
full decommissioning by the end of December, a shadow 
assembly in January, the UK lifting suspension of the 
assembly in February, and an executive in place in March.  If 
a deal is not reached, Collins said the governments have not 
fully fleshed out next steps, but will want to find a way to 
take the IRA's offer.  Sinn Fein, he said, has not clarified 
what its "price" would be, but the GOI assumes it would 
require a greater role for Ireland in Northern Ireland. 
KENNY