US embassy cable - 04LAGOS2277

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 002277 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/W, INR, DRL 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/11/2008 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, KDEM, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: ARMED BANDS BURN GOVERNMENT BUILDINGS IN 
ANAMBRA STATE 
 
REF: LAGOS 2227 
 
Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne per 1.4 b and d 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  In what appears to be a full throttle 
attempt to provoke a state of emergency in Anambra State, 
armed bands have been on a rampage in the state over the past 
two days.  They have burned government buildings, including 
the Governor's residence and State Election Commission 
building, media outlets and commercial facilities.  They also 
reportedly briefly held hostage some State Assembly members. 
Numerous state officials are now in hiding.  The police have 
been conspicuously absent. Just back from the United States, 
Anambra State Governor Chris Ngige was in Abuja when the 
violence erupted on Wednesday, and he has not returned to 
Anambra. President Obasanjo is holding an emergency security 
meeting, today, November 12 to discuss the unfolding crisis. 
The armed bands are likely the handicraft of millionaire 
Chris Uba who has been trying to oust Ngige since the two men 
had a falling out shortly after Ngige's disputed election in 
2003.  End Summary. 
 
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Armed Youths Go On A Rampage 
----------------------------- 
 
2. (U)  According to press reports, roving bands burned 
and/or looted the following establishments over the two-day 
period, November 10-11: 
-- Governor's residence 
-- Deputy governor's office 
-- State Assembly Complex 
-- Women's Development Center (state-affiliated) 
-- Ikenga hotel (government- owned) 
-- Anambra State Broadcasting Service (two radio stations and 
one television facility) 
-- Anambra State Independent Electoral Commission 
-- Several commercial and private vehicles 
 
3. (U) Press and other sources reported that the police did 
not respond to the attacks against government facilities. 
The commissioner of the State Police pleaded "helplessness" 
in a television broadcast and sought the assistance of 
neighboring state commands.  Numerous Ngige supporters claim 
the police in some instances helped transport the marauders. 
Reports of the numbers of persons possibly killed during the 
violence vary widely.  The police claim no/no deaths; while 
Ngige's others allege up to 27 fatalities.  Most news reports 
put the death toll around 7-10. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
Members of State Assembly Briefly Taken Hostage; 
Speaker of the State Assembly Pleads for USG Intervention 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
4. (C) Mike Balonwu, Speaker of the Anambra State Assembly 
called Embassy Abuja November 10 reporting that "anarchy" was 
reigning in the state.  Balonwu alleged that Chris Uba was 
orchestrating the violence in an effort to disrupt local 
elections scheduled for December 18 and provoke President 
Obasanjo into imposing emergency rule.  In a November 11 
follow-up call with Consulate Lagos, Balonwu further claimed 
that the "hoodlums" surrounded his legislative quarters and 
briefly held him and other State Assembly members hostage, at 
which point the police "evaporated."  Balonwu said he only 
managed to escape with the assistance of the State Security 
Service (SSS).  Balonwu reported that he and other state 
officials are now in hiding. 
 
5. (C) Balonwu urged USG intervention to prevent Obasanjo 
from declaring a state of emergency and replacing Ngige as he 
did Plateau State Governor Dariye.  It is time, Balonwu said, 
for Obasanjo to "act like a leader and stop letting his 
friends do whatever they want." 
 
6.  (C) Chief O. Ukwa, an Igbo traditional leader and member 
of the All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA), told us that he 
met Chris Uba and Chief Chris Orijiekwe, a PDP official, in 
Anambra state several days ago.  Ukwa recalled Uba 
cryptically saying that a plan was in motion to foil the 
planned December 18 local elections and to bring his feud 
with Ngige to a head.  Ukwa claimed that as this encounter 
was ending, Orijiekwe intimated that he would soon be "number 
one in the state."  During this violent spate, Orijiekwe has 
been quick with public statements condemning Governor Ngige 
for losing control of the state and that the tumult was 
evidence of popular discontent with Ngige's governance. 
 
----------------------------------- 
Emergency Security Meeting in Abuja 
----------------------------------- 
 
7. (U) According to the press, President Obasanjo is 
convening an emergency meeting on the Anambra crisis, today, 
November 12.  The meeting is to be attended by Obasanjo's 
chief security advisors and Anambra State Governor Ngige. 
Ngige was in Abuja (on reportedly unrelated matters) at the 
time of the outbreak of the violence on Wednesday.  Ngige 
apparently has not sought to return to Anambra due to fears 
over his personal safety. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
8. (C) This outcrop of violence is the latest episode in the 
long-running feud between Chris Uba and Chris Ngige.  As 
reported reftel, Uba has been trying to oust Ngige since 
Ngige reneged on a 2003 pre-election arrangement that would 
have ceded a considerable windfall from the state's coffers 
to Uba.  It is almost certain that Uba bankrolled this latest 
rampage.  Uba's goal is to make Ananmbra ungovernable so that 
Ngige is relieved of the helm.  His animus for Ngige has led 
the unrestrained Uba toward these extreme tactics.  Uba must 
have felt certain that he holds most of the aces before 
taking such a gambit.  The next few days and the meetings 
held by President Obasanjo in Abuja will show whether he 
assessed correctly if he succeeds in unseating Ngige.  If 
Ngige survives this latest attack from Uba, he must still 
contend with Uba's forces in the upcoming December elections, 
where Uba will attempt to further entrench his supporters. 
 
9.  (C) Comment Cont'd:  It is not clear what would happen if 
Ngige is ousted.  One possible scenario is that Peter Obi 
would be eventually installed as governor. Obi was the All 
Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) candidate who most 
Anambrans believe won the 2003 election (reftel).  APGA has 
filed suit protesting the 2003 elections and Obi and Uba have 
been in closed door talks, but no deal has been sealed. 
Alternatively, Uba is probably interviewing several PDP 
officials in the state to determine which would be the most 
pliant and trustworthy to do his bidding if placed in the now 
damaged governor's mansion. 
 
10.  (C) Comment Cont'd.  Thus far, Uba has been given a long 
leash in creating mischief in Anambra.  However, Anambra is 
now an unalloyed national embarrassment that could hurt 
Obasanjo because of Uba's clear links to the President.  Uba 
probably now has the upperhand over Ngige.  But if the 
political backlash is too severe, Obasanjo might move to 
quiet Uba or even jettison him. End Comment. 
 
 
BROWNE