US embassy cable - 01HARARE3672

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 HARARE 003672 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
PARIS FOR CHARLES NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/11/11 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, ECON, PINS, ZI 
SUBJECT: A/S KANSTEINER MEETS WITH CROSS SECTION OF 
BULAWAYO SOCIETY 
 
REF: HARARE 3643 
 
CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL OFFICER TODD FAULK FOR REASONS: 
1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY: ON DECEMBER 9, A/S KANSTEINER MET WITH 
A WIDE CROSS-SECTION OF BULAWAYO SOCIETY TO DISCUSS THE 
RECENT POLITICAL VIOLENCE IN THAT CITY, ONGOING 
GOVERNMENT OF ZIMBABWE (GOZ) ATTEMPTS TO SUBVERT THE 
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, THE DETERIORATING ECONOMY AND 
LOOMING FOOD SHORTAGES, PASSAGE OF THE ZIMBABWE 
DEMOCRACY AND ECONOMIC RECOVERY ACT (ZDERA), AND WHAT 
ROLE THE U.S. MIGHT PLAY IN HELPING ZIMBABWE OUT OF ITS 
CURRENT CRISIS.  OVERALL, OUR INTERLOCUTORS PAINTED 
BULAWAYO, AND THE ENTIRE MATABELELAND REGION, AS AN AREA 
UNDER SIEGE BY THE GOZ, AND ONE LIVING IN FEAR OF MORE 
MUGABE-LED VIOLENCE AND REPRESSION.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (C) ON DECEMBER 9, A/S KANSTEINER AND AMBASSADOR 
SULLIVAN, ALONG WITH SPECIAL ASSISTANT THOMAS WOODS AND 
POLOFF (NOTETAKER), MET WITH A WIDE CROSS-SECTION OF 
CIVIL SOCIETY, OPPOSITION AND LOCAL OFFICIALS IN 
BULAWAYO.  IN SEPARATE MEETINGS, KANSTEINER MET: SHARI 
EPPEL, DIRECTOR OF AMANI TRUST/BULAWAYO, A WELL- 
RESPECTED HUMAN RIGHTS ORGANIZATION; ERIC BLOCH, A 
PROMINENT ECONOMIST AND COLUMNIST; MOVEMENT FOR 
DEMOCRATIC CHANGE VICE-PRESIDENT GIBSON SIBANDA, MDC 
SECRETARY-GENERAL WELSHMAN NCUBE, AND MDC MP FOR 
 
SIPDIS 
BULAWAYO SOUTH DAVID COLTART; HUMAN RIGHTS ACTIVIST AND 
"DAILY NEWS" PART-OWNER JUDITH TODD AND MICHAEL NDUBIWA, 
THE CHAIRMAN OF THE NATIONAL AIDS COUNCIL; ARCHBISHOP 
PIUS NCUBE; AND BULAWAYO MAYOR JAPHET NDABENI-NCUBE. 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  03672  01 OF 05  111246Z 
 
BULAWAYO UNDER SIEGE 
-------------------- 
 
3.  (C) NEARLY ALL THOSE A/S KANSTEINER MET WITH HAD A 
TALE TO TELL RELATED TO THE POLITICAL VIOLENCE THAT 
WRACKED BULAWAYO IN MID-NOVEMBER.  MAYOR NDEBENI-NCUBE, 
ELECTED ON THE MDC TICKET IN SEPTEMBER, RECOUNTED HIS 
OWN CLOSE CALL WITH ANGRY DEMONSTRATORS ON NOVEMBER 16. 
SIKHANYISO NDLOVU AND DUMISO DABENGWA -- ZANU-PF 
POLITBURO MEMBERS WHOSE POLITICAL STARS ARE WANING, THE 
MAYOR STATED -- STARTED THE TROUBLE BY WHIPPING UP 
EMOTIONS AT A ZANU-PF YOUTH RALLY; THE MAJORITY OF THE 
YOUTH WERE SHIPPED IN BY TRAIN THE NIGHT BEFORE.  THE 
GROUP OF SEVERAL HUNDRED THEN PROCEEDED TO TEAR THROUGH 
THE STREETS, ATTACKING BYSTANDERS AND LOOTING VENDORS OF 
THEIR WARES.  FIFTEEN MINUTES BEFORE THEY ARRIVED AT HIS 
OFFICE AT CITY HALL, HE RECEIVED A PHONE CALL FROM AN 
MDC OPERATIVE WARNING OF THE IMPENDING DANGER.  TAKING 
HIS REVOLVER WITH HIM, HE WAS WHISKED TO A DARK OFFICE 
IN A DIFFERENT PART OF THE BUILDING AND LOCKED INSIDE, 
THE MAYOR SAID.  WHEN THE DEMONSTATORS ARRIVED, A GROUP 
OF EIGHT WAR VETERANS LED BY THEIR NATIONAL SECRETARY 
FOR PROJECTS ANDREW NDLOVU, SOMEHOW GOT INSIDE CITY HALL 
AND FORCED A SECURITY GUARD TO TAKE THEM TO THE MAYOR'S 
OFFICE.  THEY RANSACKED THE OFFICE, TORE UP PAPERS, 
THREW FILES OUT THE WINDOW, AND STOLE HIS BRIEFCASE. 
THEY LEFT TWO LOGS ON HIS DESK, AN APPARENT WARNING THAT 
THEY WOULD BEAT HIM WITH THE CLUBS IF HE RETURNED, 
NDABENI-NCUBE STATED.  THE DEMONSTRATORS, ESCORTED BY 
RIOT POLICE, THEN LEFT TO BURN DOWN THE MDC'S BULAWAYO 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  03672  01 OF 05  111246Z 
HEADQUARTERS.  SINCE THAT DAY, HE HAS RECEIVED 
THREATENING PHONE CALLS, AND STRANGE VEHICLES DRIVE 
SLOWLY BY HIS HOME AT NIGHT.  ACCORDING TO SHARI EPPEL, 
THE VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION OF THE LAST FEW WEEKS IN 
BULAWAYO HAS LEFT THE MDC WITHOUT ANY ADMINISTRATIVE 
STRUCTURE IN THE CITY.  ALTHOUGH GRASS-ROOTS EFFORTS 
CONTINUE, MOST OFFICIALS HAVE FLED OR ARE IN HIDING, SHE 
CLAIMED. 
 
4.  (C) THE POLITICAL VIOLENCE OF NOVEMBER 16 HAD A DEEP 
IMPACT ON THE RESIDENTS OF THIS NORMALLY QUIET CITY. 
THE COMMON DENOMINATOR IN NEARLY EVERY MEETING WITH A/S 
KANSTEINER WAS AN EXPRESSION OF FEAR.  SHARI EPPEL, A 
LONG-TIME RESIDENT OF THE CITY, COMPARED THE ATMOSPHERE 
TO THE TIME OF THE "GUKURAHUNDI" MASSACRES OF THE MID- 
1980S.  SHE COMPARED THE CASE OF A ZANU SENATOR FROM 
BEITBRIDGE, MURDERED IN 1984 BY HIS OWN PARTY, TO THE 
RECENT CASE OF CAIN NKALA, THE WAR VETERANS LEADER MOST 
ZIMBABWEANS BELIEVE WAS KILLED BY STATE AGENTS.  SHE 
DESCRIBED PRESIDENT MUGABE'S NATIONAL HERO SPEECH AT 
NKALA'S FUNERAL AS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THAT OF THE 
SENATOR'S IN 1984.  THE NDEBELE ARE VERY AFRAID THAT 
MUGABE IS SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER "GUKURAHUNDI"- 
TYPE POGROM, EPPEL STATED.  HER ORGANIZATION, AMANI 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ3094 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  03672  02 OF 05  111247Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   AID-00   CIAE-00  CTME-00  DODE-00  SRPP-00  EB-00 
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                  ------------------49CDD0  111248Z /48 
O 110949Z DEC 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0496 
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 05 HARARE 003672 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
PARIS FOR CHARLES NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/11/11 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, ECON, PINS, PINR, ZI 
SUBJECT: A/S KANSTEINER MEETS WITH CROSS SECTION OF 
BULAWAYO SOCIETY 
 
TRUST/BULAWAYO, IS CURRENTLY FOCUSED ON EXHUMING THE 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  03672  02 OF 05  111247Z 
BODIES OF THE THOUSANDS KILLED BY FIFTH BRIGADE TROOPS 
IN THE 1980S AND TRAINING AN ARGENTINE GROUP CURRENTLY 
IN COUNTRY IN FORENSICS.  OF THE 4,000 SO FAR EXHUMED 
FROM MASS GRAVES AND PROPERLY REBURIED, NEARLY ALL WERE 
SHOT AT CLOSE RANGE.  SHE CONSERVATIVELY ESTIMATES THAT 
10,000 CIVILIANS DIED IN THE GOVERNMENT'S PACIFICATION 
CAMPAIGN, AND THE NUMBER COULD BE AS HIGH AS 20,000. 
EPPEL SAID THE EXHUMATION PROGRAM IS DESIGNED TO SEEK 
JUSTICE FOR THE VICTIMS OF THE ATROCITIES, AND THAT 
THERE CAN BE NO RECONCILIATION PROCESS WITHOUT DIRECT 
PERSONAL ACCOUNTABILITY FOR THOSE RESPONSIBLE, I.E., 
SENIOR GOZ OFFICIALS. 
 
5.  (C) BOTH EPPEL AND MDC MP DAVID COLTART APPEALED TO 
A/S KANSTEINER TO URGENTLY PRESS THE GOZ TO RELEASE MDC 
TREASURER FLETCHER DULINI-NCUBE, WHO WAS DENIED BAIL IN 
A DECEMBER 7 HIGH COURT RULING.  DULINI-NCUBE, WHO IS 61 
AND SUFFERS FROM DIABETES AND HYPERTENSION, HAS BEEN IN 
JAIL FOR THREE WEEKS ON CHARGES OF CONSPIRACY TO MURDER 
IN THE CAIN NKALA CASE.  COLTART SAID THE CHARGES ARE A 
COMPLETE FABRICATION AND ARE BASED SOLELY ON THE 
CONFESSIONS OF TWO YOUNG MEN, WHO LATER RECANTED THEIR 
STORIES AS COERCED UNDER TORTURE.  DULINI-NCUBE'S HEALTH 
IS DECLINING RAPIDLY, AND HE HAS ALREADY LOST SIGHT IN 
ONE EYE.  THE MDC IS GOING TO FILE AN APPEAL TO THE 
SUPREME COURT ON DECEMBER 10, BUT IT MAY NOT HEAR THE 
CASE BEFORE ITS CHRISTMAS ADJOURNMENT.  KANSTEINER SAID 
WE WOULD MAKE THE APPEAL BASED ON HUMANITARIAN GROUNDS 
TO GOZ OFFICIALS HE PLANS TO MEET IN HARARE.  (NOTE: THE 
ASSISTANT SECRETARY LATER RAISED DULINI-NCUBE'S CASE 
WITH SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT -- AND ZANU-PF SECRETARY OF 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  03672  02 OF 05  111247Z 
ADMINISTRATION -- EMMERSON MNANGAGWA.  THAT CONVERSATION 
IS REPORTED SEPTEL.  END NOTE.) 
 
MDC URGING RESTRAINT IN ITS RESPONSE 
------------------------------------ 
 
6.  (C) MDC VICE-PRESIDENT GIBSON SIBANDA SAID THE GOZ 
IS DOING ITS UTMOST TO PAINT THE OPPOSITION PARTY AS 
VIOLENT.  BLAMING IT FOR THE CAIN NKALA MURDER AND 
ARRESTING DOZENS OF MDC OFFICIALS WAS JUST ONE STEP. 
THE GOZ ALSO ACCUSES THE MDC OF OPERATING MILITARY 
TRAINING CAMPS IN BOTSWANA, ZAMBIA AND MOZAMBIQUE, WHICH 
SIBANDA SUGGESTED IS JUST UTTER NONSENSE AND A SIGN OF 
GROWING DESPERATION ON THE PART OF MUGABE.  ASKED 
WHETHER THE MDC HAS EVER PROVIDED ANY KIND OF MILITARY 
TRAINING TO ITS MEMBERS, COLTART REPLIED THAT IT HAS 
ONLY TRAINED ABOUT 10 OR 12 BODYGUARDS IN DEFENSIVE 
TACTICS TO PROTECT THE PARTY LEADERSHIP.  SIBANDA ADDED 
THAT IT WOULD BE SUICIDAL FOR THE MDC TO TRY TO FIGHT 
THE GOZ IN AN ARMED STRUGGLE.  MAYOR NDABENI-NCUBE TOLD 
THE ASSISTANT SECRETARY THAT MDC YOUTH WHO ORGANIZE 
THEMSELVES TO DEFEND AGAINST ZANU-PF BRUTES AND WAR 
VETS, SUCH AS THOSE THAT BURNED SIKHANYISO NDLOVU'S 
COLLEGE IN BULAWAYO, ARE TOLD TO AVOID ARMED POLICE AND 
SOLDIERS.  KANSTEINER ASKED THE MAYOR WHETHER THE MDC 
STILL HAS CONTROL OF THE YOUTH.  THE MAYOR REPLIED THAT 
IT IS DIFFICULT TO CONTROL THEM DESPITE THE ORGANIZED 
STRUCTURES IN PLACE.  THE YOUTH DON'T INSTIGATE 
VIOLENCE, BUT ACT PRIMARILY IN DEFENSE, BY PATROLLING 
NEIGHBORHOODS AT NIGHT, FOR EXAMPLE.  HOWEVER, IF THE 
MDC YOUTH HAD NOT ACTED AGAINST THE ZANU-PF MOBS ON 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  03672  02 OF 05  111247Z 
NOVEMBER 16, HE IS CERTAIN MUCH MORE DAMAGE WOULD HAVE 
BEFALLEN THE CITY, THE MAYOR STATED. 
 
ELECTORAL IMPEDIMENTS INCREASING FOR MDC 
---------------------------------------- 
 
7.  (C) A/S KANSTEINER ASKED THE MDC OFFICIALS IF THE 
MDC INTENDS TO PARTICIPATE IN THE EARLY 2002 
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, EVEN IF THE ELECTORAL FIELD IS 
TILTED AGAINST THEM.  VICE-PRESIDENT SIBANDA SAID THE 
MDC NATIONAL EXECUTIVE IS GOING TO MEET TO CONSIDER THE 
ISSUE, BUT IN ALL LIKELIHOOD, THE PARTY WOULD 
PARTICIPATE.  "THE MDC IS THE LAST HOPE FOR MANY 
PEOPLE," HE OPINED, "AND WE WOULD BE LYNCHED IF MORGAN 
WITHDREW FROM THE RACE."  NONETHELESS, WE RECOGNIZE THAT 
"THE ODDS ARE MOUNTING AGAINST US."  NEW PROPOSED 
LEGISLATION, MAINLY AMENDMENTS TO THE ELECTORAL ACT, THE 
PUBLIC ORDER AND SECURITY BILL, AND THE ACCESS TO 
INFORMATION BILL (REFTEL) WILL HINDER THE MDC'S CAMPAIGN 
EFFORT.  THE ELECTORAL ACT AMENDMENTS, FOR EXAMPLE, 
WOULD PROHIBIT THE PUTTING UP OF CAMPAIGN POSTERS, 
WELSHMAN NCUBE POINTED OUT.  THE VOTER ROLLS ARE ALSO 
BEING DELIBERATELY MANIPULATED IN MATABELELAND.  THE 
NDEBELE NAMES OF NEW VOTER REGISTRANTS ARE BEING 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ3096 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  03672  03 OF 05  111248Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
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                  ------------------49CDE7  111248Z /48 
O 110949Z DEC 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0497 
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 05 HARARE 003672 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
PARIS FOR CHARLES NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/11/11 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, ECON, PINS, PINR, ZI 
SUBJECT: A/S KANSTEINER MEETS WITH CROSS SECTION OF 
BULAWAYO SOCIETY 
 
DELIBERATELY MISSPELLED OR CHANGED INTO SHONA 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  03672  03 OF 05  111248Z 
EQUIVALENTS WITHOUT THE REGISTRANT'S KNOWLEDGE, AND 
DIGITS ARE BEING DROPPED FROM NATIONAL ID NUMBERS, WHICH 
WILL MAKE IT NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE FOR THE VOTERS' 
REGISTRATION TO BE LOCATED WHEN THEY GO TO VOTE, 
ACCORDING TO NCUBE.  COLTART ADDED THAT STUDENTS 
REGISTERING IN THE CITIES ARE BEING TURNED AWAY IN 
DROVES BECAUSE OF A LACK OF NUMEROUS DOCUMENTS PROVING 
RESIDENCY.  ABOUT 600,000 POTENTIAL FIRST-TIME VOTERS 
COULD BE DISENFRANCHISED FROM THE VOTE AS RESULT, HE 
SAID.  THE MDC PLANS TO FILE A CASE WITH THE SUPREME 
COURT ON DECEMBER 10 TO CHALLENGE THE GOZ'S INTENTION TO 
REQUIRE ALL VOTERS TO VOTE IN THEIR CONSTITUENCY; THE 
CONSTITUTION PROVIDES FOR A COMMON VOTER ROLL THAT 
SHOULD PERMIT A VOTER TO CAST A BALLOT ANYWHERE IN THE 
COUNTRY, NCUBE STATED. 
 
8.  (C) MAYOR NDABENI-NCUBE WAS EQUIVOCAL ABOUT THE 
MDC'S CHANCES IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, SAYING THAT 
THE "ARITHMETIC" WAS ON THE MDC'S SIDE, BUT THE GOZ'S 
MANIPULATION OF THE VOTERS' ROLL COULD TIP THE BALANCE 
IN MUGABE'S FAVOR.  MATABELELAND, MANICALAND, AND THE 
URBAN AREAS ARE WRITE-OFFS FOR ZANU-PF AS THE MDC WILL 
WIN 90 PERCENT OF THESE AREAS, HE PREDICTED.  TSVANGIRAI 
WILL WIN 70 PERCENT OF MIDLANDS, AND 50 PERCENT OF 
MASVINGO, WHERE HE WILL GET A BOOST FROM THE NON- 
CAMPAIGNING OF THE ZVOBGO ZANU-PF FACTION.  MASHONALAND 
WILL GARNER FEWER THAN 40 PERCENT OF THE VOTES FOR THE 
OPPOSITION LEADER.  THESE NUMBERS WOULD PUT TSVANGIRAI 
IN THE WIN COLUMN WERE IT NOT FOR THE GOZ'S TILTING OF 
THE ELECTORAL PROCESS IN MUGABE'S FAVOR, THE MAYOR 
OFFERED. 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  03672  03 OF 05  111248Z 
 
ECONOMY SHRINKS AS FOOD SHORTAGES GROW 
-------------------------------------- 
 
9.  (C) ONE OF THE KEY FACTORS IN MUGABE'S DECLINING 
POPULARITY HAS BEEN THE RAPIDLY DETERIORATING ECONOMY 
AND THE COUNTRY'S FOOD SECURITY ALONG WITH IT, ACCORDING 
TO ERIC BLOCH, A WIDELY RESPECTED ECONOMIST AND 
COLUMNIST BASED IN BULAWAYO.  A LOT OF FARMERS ARE 
WAITING TO SEE IF THE GOZ CARRIES OUT ITS STATED 
INTENTION TO TAKE OVER NEARLY ALL THE COUNTRY'S 
COMMERCIAL FARMS.  THE REAPING OF TOBACCO IS DUE TO 
BEGIN IN MID-DECEMBER, BUT FARMERS MAY DECIDE NOT TO IF 
THERE IS NO EXPECTATION OF KEEPING THEIR FARMS, WHICH 
WILL HAVE MAJOR IMPLICATIONS FOR THE COUNTRY'S FOREX 
FUTURE.  THERE IS CURRENTLY ONLY US$30 MILLION PER MONTH 
COMING INTO ZIMBABWE, AND NO MORE THAN US$50 TO 60 
MILLION PER MONTH MAY BE EXPECTED IN APRIL WHEN THE 
TOBACCO SALES BEGIN (US$100 MILLION/MONTH IS NORMAL). 
 
10.  (C) BLOCH SAID IN JUNE HE ACCOMPANIED FINANCE 
MINISTER SIMBA MAKONI TO AN INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE 
WHERE MAKONI STATED THAT LITTLE CAN BE DONE TO SAVE THE 
ZIMBABWEAN ECONOMY UNLESS THREE THINGS HAPPEN: 1) LAW 
AND ORDER IS RESTORED, I.E. SQUATTERS ARE REMOVED FROM 
FARMS, 2) THE GOZ "STOPS CHANGING ITS POLICIES AS OFTEN 
AS WE CHANGE OUR UNDERWEAR," AND 3) EVERY FARMER IS ABLE 
TO PLANT AND HARVEST HIS CROP IN SECURITY.  ABSENT THAT, 
MAKONI IS SPENDING MONEY HE DOES NOT HAVE TO KEEP THE 
ECONOMY AFLOAT.  GOZ DEBT HAS SOARED TO BETWEEN 15 AND 
19 PERCENT OF GDP.  TO RAISE MORE CAPITAL, HE WILL HAVE 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  03672  03 OF 05  111248Z 
TO GO AFTER INSURANCE COMPANIES AND PENSION FUNDS BY 
INCREASING THEIR AMOUNT OF PROSCRIBED ASSETS. 
CURRENTLY, 45 PERCENT OF THEIR ASSETS ARE REQUIRED TO BE 
IN GOVERNMENT T-BILLS. 
 
11.  (C) ON THE FOOD SECURITY FRONT, ZIMBABWE WILL 
REQUIRE 500 MILLION TONS OF MAIZE BETWEEN NOW AND EARLY 
2003 TO COVER THE PREDICTED SHORTFALLS OF DOMESTIC 
PRODUCTION, BLOCH PREDICTED; PLANTINGS NOW IN THE 
COMMERCIAL AREAS ARE ONLY 60 PERCENT OF WHAT THEY WERE 
LAST YEAR.  NEXT YEAR, THERE WILL BE A GAP IN MAIZE 
AVAILABILITY BETWEEN MARCH AND MAY.  WHOEVER WINS THE 
ELECTION IS GOING TO HAVE A TERRIBLE PROBLEM ON HIS 
HANDS, BLOCH OPINED.  IT'S NOT TOO LATE FOR MUGABE TO 
TURN THINGS AROUND IF HE STARTS SAYING, AND DOING, THE 
RIGHT THINGS NOW, THE ECONOMIST SUGGESTED.  PRINCIPALLY, 
HE MUST: 1) GO BACK TO A MARKET ECONOMY BY ABANDONING 
PRICE AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE CONTROLS, 2) CLEAR OUT THE 
FARM SQUATTERS AND ARREST THE PERPETRATORS OF VIOLENCE, 
AND 3) CUT BACK ON GOVERNMENT SPENDING -- A CUTBACK IN 
THE BUDGET OF THE PRESIDENT'S OFFICE WOULD BE A SIGN OF 
COMMITMENT.  IF THESE THINGS HAPPENED, THE ZIMBABWEAN 
ECONOMY COULD START TO TURN AROUND FAIRLY QUICKLY, 
ESPECIALLY IN THE MANUFACTURING EXPORT SECTOR.  SOME 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ3144 
 
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                  ------------------49CF50  111257Z /48 
O 110949Z DEC 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0498 
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 04 OF 05 HARARE 003672 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
PARIS FOR CHARLES NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/11/11 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, ECON, PINS, PINR, ZI 
SUBJECT: A/S KANSTEINER MEETS WITH CROSS SECTION OF 
BULAWAYO SOCIETY 
 
FIRMS COULD START EXPORTING AGAIN IN AS LITTLE AS A FEW 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  03672  04 OF 05  111257Z 
WEEKS.  (COMMENT: ALTHOUGH THE MANUFACTURING EXPORT 
SECTOR MAY TURN AROUND QUICKLY, THE MAINSTAY OF THE 
ZIMBABWEAN ECONOMY REMAINS COMMERCIAL AGRICULTURE, AND 
IT WILL LIKELY TAKE YEARS FOR IT TO RECOVER.  END 
COMMENT.) 
 
ARCHBISHOP: DO NOT EXPECT A REVOLUTION 
--------------------------------------- 
 
12.  (C) THE PEOPLE OF ZIMBABWE, AND MATABELELAND IN 
PARTICULAR, ARE SO SCARED, THEY WILL NOT RISE UP AGAINST 
THE GOVERNMENT, EVEN IF MUGABE WINS RE-ELECTION, 
ARCHBISHOP PIUS NCUBE TOLD THE ASSISTANT SECRETARY. 
(NOTE: NCUBE, WHO HIMSELF LEFT ZIMBABWE LAST YEAR 
BECAUSE OF DEATH THREATS, STOOD WITH THE A/S DELEGATION 
AS IT ARRIVED AND BRIEFLY KEPT THEM OUTSIDE HIS OFFICE 
BUILDING, APPARENTLY SO THAT SUSPECTED CIO AGENTS IN THE 
CATHEDRAL COMPOUND COULD SEE THAT HE WAS MEETING WITH 
AMERICAN OFFICIALS.  END NOTE.)  THE ARCHBISHOP 
PREDICTED THAT THE VIOLENCE WILL INTENSIFY BEFORE THE 
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, WHICH WILL NOT BE FREE AND FAIR. 
EVEN THOUGH EDUCATED AND UNEDUCATED ZIMBABWEANS ALIKE 
ARE VERY UNHAPPY, THEY WILL NOT RISE UP AGAINST THE GOZ 
UNLESS THEY ARE LED.  MDC PRESIDENT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI IS 
TOO WEAK TO LEAD THEM, AS HE HIMSELF IS INTIMIDATED BY 
THE GOZ, NCUBE OPINED.  NCUBE WOULD BE EQUALLY OPPOSED 
TO THE MDC IF IT PROVED TO BE JUST AS CORRUPT AS ZANU- 
PF, HE ADDED.  WHEN ASKED IF THERE IS A CHANCE FOR 
MUGABE TO BACK OUT OF THE ELECTION, THE ARCHBISHOP SAID 
"NO;" ONCE HIS PARTY WINS RE-ELECTION, HOWEVER, MUGABE 
WILL HAND OVER POWER TO ANOTHER PARTY STALWART. 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  03672  04 OF 05  111257Z 
 
ZIMBABWE DEMOCRACY ACT 
---------------------- 
 
13.  (C) MANY OF OUR INTERLOCUTORS EXPRESSED THANKS TO 
A/S KANSTEINER AND THE USG FOR PASSING THE ZIMBABWE 
DEMOCRACY AND ECONOMIC RECOVERY ACT (ZDERA).  IN AN OPEN 
DISCUSSION WITH HUMAN RIGHTS ACTIVIST JUDITH TODD AND 
AIDS NATIONAL COUNCIL CHAIRMAN MIKE NDUBIWA (A LONG-TIME 
ZANU-PF MEMBER WHO WAS AS ANTI-ZANU AS ANYONE WE MET), 
KANSTEINER EXPLAINED THE PROVISIONS OF THE ZDERA AND 
THAT IT IS UP TO THE ADMINISTRATION TO IMPLEMENT ANY 
SANCTIONS.  TODD ARGUED THAT IT WOULD BE IMPORTANT TO 
THREATEN SANCTIONS JUST BEFORE THE ZANU-PF CONFERENCE 
BEGINS DECEMBER 14 AND BEFORE THE AMENDMENTS TO THE 
ELECTORAL ACT ARE PASSED IN PARLIAMENT (TODD REPORTED 
THAT THE BILL IS DUE TO BE INTRODUCED DECEMBER 18). 
AFTER THESE DATES, SHE SAID, IT WOULD BE TOO LATE TO 
INFLUENCE ANY POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE GOZ'S COURSE OF 
ACTION.  AMBASSADOR SULLIVAN POINTED OUT THAT THERE IS 
AN ARGUMENT AGAINST USING THE SANCTIONS "STICK" NOW -- 
WE WON'T HAVE ANY OTHERS ONCE IT IS USED, AND IT COULD 
FORCE MUGABE INTO A CORNER WITH NO ESCAPE ROUTES. 
NDUBIWA MAINTAINED THAT "PULLING THE TRIGGER" OF 
SANCTIONS SHOULD BE A PROCESS RATHER THAN AN EVENT. 
CERTAINLY, THREATS OF USING SANCTIONS WOULD HAVE TO BE 
MADE, BUT THEIR ULTIMATE USE SHOULD NOT BE LINKED TO ANY 
ONE ACTION, SUCH AS PASSAGE OF THE ELECTORAL ACT 
AMENDMENTS. 
 
HOW CAN WE BEST HELP ZIMBABWE? 
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PAGE 04        HARARE  03672  04 OF 05  111257Z 
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14.  (C) WHEN ASKED HOW THE U.S. COULD HELP ZIMBABWE AT 
THIS POINT, MDC VICE-PRESIDENT SIBANDA STATED THAT THE 
MOST IMPORTANT THING WE COULD DO IS TELL PRESIDENT 
MUGABE IN NO UNCERTAIN TERMS THAT WE WOULD NOT RECOGNIZE 
THE ELECTION OUTCOME IF THE ELECTION WAS NOT FREE AND 
FAIR.  MUGABE WANTS THIS RECOGNITION MORE THAN ANYTHING, 
SIBANDA SAID.  USING OUR INFLUENCE WITH THE REGIONAL 
STATES WOULD HELP, BUT AMONG THE SADC STATES, ONLY SOUTH 
AFRICA CAN APPLY SUFFICIENT PRESSURE ON MUGABE TO CHANGE 
HIS WAYS.  SHARI EPPEL OF AMANI TRUST OPINED THAT 
APPLYING PRESSURE TO THE SADC STATES TO TAKE A STAND 
AGAINST MUGABE IS KEY TO CHANGING HIS BEHAVIOR.  SIBANDA 
APPEALED FOR HELP WITH MDC FINANCES, WHICH HE SAID WERE 
BEING DRAINED BY GOZ ACTIONS, SUCH AS THE TORCHING OF 
ITS BULAWAYO OFFICES AND LEGAL CASES.  THE MDC IS 
SPENDING BETWEEN ZIM$5 MILLION AND $7 MILLION (US$16,000 
AND $23,000) ON LEGAL FEES; IT HAS SO FAR SPENT ZIM$1.3 
MILLION (US$4,000) ON FLETCHER DULINI-NCUBE'S CASE 
ALONE.  THEY SAID IT WOULD HELP IF THE U.S. COULD ASSIST 
IN FINDING NGOS THAT COULD PROVIDE LEGAL ASSISTANCE OR 
FUNDS FOR LEGAL EXPENSES. 
 
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                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ3091 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  03672  05 OF 05  111247Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   AID-00   CIAE-00  CTME-00  DODE-00  SRPP-00  EB-00 
      EXIM-01  E-00     VC-00    FRB-00   H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00 
      ITC-01   L-00     AC-01    NSAE-00  NSCE-00  OMB-01   OPIC-01 
      PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00    SSO-00 
      SS-00    STR-00   TRSE-00  T-00     USIE-00  PMB-00   DRL-02 
      G-00     SAS-00     /008W 
                  ------------------49CDC1  111247Z /48 
O 110949Z DEC 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0499 
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 05 OF 05 HARARE 003672 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
PARIS FOR CHARLES NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/11/11 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, ECON, PINS, PINR, ZI 
SUBJECT: A/S KANSTEINER MEETS WITH CROSS SECTION OF 
BULAWAYO SOCIETY 
 
15.  (U) THE A/S KANSTEINER DELEGATION CLEARED THIS 
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PAGE 02        HARARE  03672  05 OF 05  111247Z 
CABLE. 
 
SULLIVAN 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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