US embassy cable - 04TAIPEI3551

UNCLAS TAIPEI 003551 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/RSP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - 
ROBERT PALLADINO 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, KPAO, TW, Foreign Policy, Cross Strait Politics 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: BUSH-HU APEC MEETING AND U.S. 
ARMS SALES TO TAIWAN 
 
 
"Once Bush and Hu Meet and Talk About Arms Sales to 
Taiwan . Hu Jintao [Raises the Issue] and the United 
States Replies, It Will Be Like Opening Pandora's Box" 
 
Professor Chen I-hsin of the Graduate Institute of 
American Studies, Tamkang University, commented in the 
conservative, pro-unification, "United Daily News" 
(11/10): 
 
"One development in the recent U.S. general elections 
that is related to cross-Strait affairs is the rise of 
U.S. conservative forces.  This indicates that the 
Republican Party will focus more on business and market 
interests.  As China now enjoys a huge economic appeal 
and increasing national strength, the answer would be 
obvious if one is asked to choose sides between the 
mainland and Taiwan.  Therefore, regarding the upcoming 
Bush-Hu [APEC] meeting, Taiwan's national security and 
foreign relation units should never be as negligent as 
they were during Secretary of State Colin Powell's 
visit to Beijing . If Hu Jintao raises more demands to 
the United States, we can expect that, in addition to 
abiding by the `one-China' policy and further bilateral 
cooperation in preventing `Taiwan independence,' he 
would certainly ask for reduced U.S. arms sales to 
Taiwan. 
 
". Limiting U.S. arms sales to Taiwan has always been 
Beijing's goal.  The main reason is that arms deals are 
made between sovereign states.  Beijing knows that as 
long as the United States continues to sell arms to 
Taiwan, it cannot totally deny the de facto and de jure 
existence of Taiwan's sovereignty. . Should [the U.S. 
side] reply to Beijing's question about U.S. arms sales 
to Taiwan, it may result in something like the opening 
of Pandora's box and bring about many problems. . 
Therefore, whether Hu Jintao will raise the arms sale 
issue during his meeting with President Bush at APEC is 
an important indicator that is worth watching closely." 
 
KEEGAN