US embassy cable - 04ROME4313

C O N F I D E N T I A L  ROME 004313 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/09/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, PREL, IT, ITALIAN POLITICS 
SUBJECT: GIANFRANCO FINI:  ALMOST CERTAINLY ITALY'S NEXT 
FOREIGN MINISTER 
 
REF: A. ROME 4268 
B. ROME 4109 
C. ROME 3850 
 
Classified By: POL MINCOUNS THOMAS COUNTRYMAN, REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
1.  (C)  SUMMARY:  At a November 8 dinner at the Ambassador's 
residence, both Deputy Prime Minister Fini and Prime Minister 
Berlusconi's personal assistant confirmed that Fini will be 
named Italy's next Foreign Minister.  We expect Fini to be a 
reliable replacement for Franco Frattini and to maintain 
support for USG priorities.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (C)  At a November 8 dinner hosted by the Ambassador in 
honor of Congressman Bill Young, Deputy Prime Minister 
Gianfranco Fini confirmed that the governing coalition had 
reached agreement on his appointment as Foreign Minister, 
replacing Franco Frattini who will move to the European 
Commission (Ref A).  The appointment may be announced 
following a meeting late on November 9 among the coalition 
leaders.  The package deal does not at this moment include 
other Cabinet changes, but Prime Minister Berlusconi's 
personal assistant, Valentino Valentini, confirmed at the 
same dinner that Berlusconi and other coalition leaders 
continue to look for a way to bring Union of Christian 
Democrats of the Center (UDC) party leader Marco Follini 
formally into the Government.  Fini appeared pleased and at 
ease with his imminent appointment.  He is already planning a 
return trip to Israel later this week (i.e., likely before he 
officially becomes Foreign Minister, which we understand will 
occur after the new Barroso Commission is confirmed). 
 
3.  (C)  Valentini said coalition members had also reached a 
meeting of minds on tax cuts.  (Fini and his National 
Alliance (AN) party want to modify Berlusconi's proposal in 
order to keep higher rates for the highest brackets.) 
Valentini did not give details on the tax compromise, but 
said that it would not be part of any November 9 
announcement, in order to lessen the impression (already 
rampant in the press) that Fini's appointment is a pure 
political and financial deal, rather than a case of picking 
the most appropriate candidate.  (COMMENT:  That would seem 
to suggest that Fini may have capitulated on his demands.) 
 
4.  (C)  Valentini added that Berlusconi would like to 
discuss making a visit to Washington as soon as possible -- 
before the inauguration -- and that he (Valentini) would 
recommend bringing Fini along.  After Fini left the dinner, 
Valentini said that he had been advising Berlusconi to make 
the most of Fini's appointment.  Rather than viewing it as a 
choice forced upon him, Berlusconi should seize the 
opportunity to build an even stronger relationship with his 
indispensable partner in the next national elections (likely 
in 2006).  Valentini noted that many politicians in 
Berlusconi's Forza Italia (FI) party were unhappy that this 
key portfolio would go to AN, but he was confident that Fini 
would be as reliable as Frattini in following the PM's 
foreign policy line. 
 
5.  (C)  The Ambassador asked Valentini if Fini would be 
prone to the kind of gaffe he made in Moscow last month, when 
he praised the "democratic nature" of Putin's constitutional 
reforms.  (Ref B; see also Ref C, reporting a Fini 
misstatement interpreted as signaling an early withdrawal of 
Italian troops from Iraq).  Valentini said that Fini would 
listen carefully to the advice of the MFA's experts, but 
would make his own statements.  Mis-steps were inevitable, 
but no one should underestimate Fini's intelligence and 
political judgment. 
 
6.  (C)  COMMENT:  We expect that Fini's appointment may 
displease especially some of Italy's European partners.  His 
AN affiliation, and the party's roots in Italian Fascism, 
raised eyebrows as he emerged on the political, and 
especially the international, scene.  However, he did an 
excellent job as Italy's representative to the European 
Convention which prepared the initial draft of the 
Constitution signed recently by EU leaders in Rome.  In that 
role, he exhibited a pro-European proclivity that pleasantly 
surprised many of his European detractors.  Additionally, 
Fini worked steadily to solidify the party's move from the 
extreme, remaking it as a legitimate and mainstream 
conservative player in Italy's democracy.  He has repudiated 
his own previous remarks praising Mussolini as the greatest 
politician of the 20th century and criticized Fascist laws 
restricting the rights of Italian Jewish citizens, as well 
as, perhaps obviously, condemned the deportation of Jews to 
extermination camps.  His actions have essentially erased, 
including for the Government of Israel and Italy's Jewish 
community, the stains of AN's political past, although the 
opposition is not averse to continued campaign references to 
 
 
them.  Fini has also been perhaps the most reliable of 
Berlusconi's coalition allies.  Perhaps more than any other 
single coalition leader, he has compromised to make the 
Government work.  One could argue he should have gotten more 
and sooner, given that AN is second only to Forza Italia in 
terms of votes brought to the table. 
 
7.  (C)  COMMENT, CONTINUED:  There is no reason to expect 
shifts in Italian foreign policy as Frattini hands off the 
Foreign Ministry to Fini, and not only because Berlusconi 
will keep tabs on Italy's foreign policy.  Frattini has been 
so closely in tune with Berlusconi's thinking on foreign 
affairs that he was able to follow the PM's line without 
supervision.  Fini may show more independence and take more 
risks; after all, he is a seasoned politician with his own 
political base and proven vote-getting ability.  The PM's 
office is likely to keep an eye on him, at least until 
Berlusconi's perhaps-unjustified fears are allayed.  Fini 
himself is solidly pro-American; he and AN colleagues, 
particularly from his faction of the party, have a long and 
cordial relationship with key Republicans, including Cong. 
Young.  Fini is a thoughtful, intelligent politician who 
normally makes a good impression on American interlocutors. 
His more recent gaffes may result from his efforts to expand 
his foreign policy credentials without adequate staff to 
prepare him; the DPM slot is not constitutionally required 
and brings virtually no staff or support.  One concern:  We 
have not observed Fini displaying Frattini's energy and work 
ethic.  We would not expect, for example, that Fini will 
mirror his predecessor's feat of largely mastering English by 
studying on the side, while serving as FM. 
 
8.  (SBU)  When the announcement is official, we will send an 
updated bio of Gianfranco Fini. 
 
 
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	2004ROME04313 - Classification: CONFIDENTIAL