US embassy cable - 04BRUSSELS4817

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 004817 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, ETRD, EUN, USEU BRUSSELS 
SUBJECT: EU ACCESSION NEGOTIATION TIMELINES:  THE 
HISTORICAL RECORD 
 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
1. (SBU) The EU is now preparing for its sixth wave of 
enlargement with the expected accession of Bulgaria and 
Romania on 1 January 2007.  Croatia and Turkey, and perhaps 
Macedonia and other Balkan states, are waiting in the queue. 
The only consistent lesson that can be drawn from looking at 
the historical record is that the EU has traditionally 
preferred to handle candidates in groups (Greece's accession 
in January 1981 was the exception).  There is considerable 
variation in how quickly accession negotiations start after 
agreement to open them, or how long it then takes for the 
candidate countries to actually join the EU. END SUMMARY. 
 
FROM APPROVAL TO OPENING OF NEGOTIATIONS 
---------------------------------------- 
 
2. (U) In previous accessions, the amount of time it has 
taken the EU (or its predecessor the EEC) to move from a 
formal decision to begin negotiations to the actual 
commencement of those negotiations has varied.  For the 
newest EU members from Central Europe, the time lag was 
either 2 or 3 months.  But the time has ranged anywhere from 
just one month (in the case of Austria, Finland and Sweden in 
1993) to six months (with Denmark, Ireland and the UK in 
1970).  The latter number, however, is in the process of 
being extended as Croatia, which received a formal decision 
to begin negotiations in June 2004, will have to wait at 
least nine months to March 2005, or perhaps even more than a 
year, for its negotiations to begin. (A table listing all 
dates for previous enlargements can be found at 
www.state.sgov.gov/p/useubrussels). 
 
FROM BEGINNING NEGOTIATIONS TO ENTRY INTO THE EU 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
3. (U) The variation among time lags for starting 
negotiations, however, has no correlation to how long it has 
taken candidates to join the EU.  Again, Austria, Sweden and 
Finland represent the fastest end of the range, with their 
entry to the EU coming just twenty four months after 
beginning negotiations.  But the next fastest group was the 
trio with the longest lead time prior to opening of 
negotiations -- Denmark, Ireland and the UK -- who entered 
the EU just 37 months from the date of beginning talks.  At 
the other end of the range are Spain, which waited just two 
months to begin negotiations, but then spent 83 months, or 
just under seven years, before joining the EU; and Portugal, 
whose accession treaty negotiations and ratification took 
over seven years (87 months) to complete. 
 
WHY THE VARIANCE? 
----------------- 
 
4. (U) It is no coincidence that the speediest accession 
process involved Austria, Finland and Sweden.  EU accession 
is essentially about how quickly new Member States can commit 
to applying the EU's body of laws and regulations (the 
"acquis communitaire") and how quickly the EU is willing to 
include the new Members in all of the EU's budgetary 
programs, including agricultural, regional and cohesion 
funds.  Therefore, accession negotiations for small, open, 
and thoroughly regulated rich economies that will become net 
contributors to the EU budget (read: Austria, Sweden and 
Finland, or, in the future, Iceland or Norway) can negotiate 
entry quickly.  These countries were helped by the fact that 
their membership in the European Free Trade Area (EFTA) meant 
much of their legislation had already been adapted to EU 
legislation.  Bigger or poorer economies with far greater 
tasks ahead to align their legislation, such as Spain or 
Portugal, took longer to agree the various "transition 
periods" required for full application of the acquis. 
 
5. (U) Finally, the timetable for accession negotiations is 
heavily influenced by political will within the EU.  Six of 
the ten new entrants of 2004 began their negotiations in 
1998, while the other four only got underway in 2000.  And 
yet they all entered on the same date.  This was because the 
EU-15 decided it would be much easier to bring them in 
together and adjust EU budgets, Commission assignments, 
voting weights in the Council, or seats in the European 
Parliament for the group as a whole rather than individually. 
 But this logic only goes so far.  Bulgaria and Romania, 
despite beginning negotiations just as quickly as Malta or 
Lithuania in 2000, faced much larger administrative, 
financial and economic hurdles than their classmates (not 
least their impact on the EU budget), and will spend some two 
and a half to three years longer securing their eventual 
entry into the Union. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
6. (SBU) Only wealthy countries can expect to negotiate entry 
into the EU at all quickly.  And even some relatively rich 
countries (Cyprus, Malta) that would not demand much from the 
EU budget have seen accession take many years when their 
domestic structures and politics were complicated enough. 
The real lesson from the historical record of EU accession is 
that, in all 22 cases where the EU began accession 
negotiations (including Norway, which later decided not to 
join the EU), the EU has NEVER failed to finish them 
successfully. 
 
MCKINLEY