US embassy cable - 04AMMAN9095

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 009095 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/08/2014 
TAGS: ASEC, KPAL, IS, JO 
SUBJECT: JORDANIANS AWAIT NEWS OF ARAFAT'S FATE 
 
 
Classified By: CDA David Hale for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
------- 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
1.  (C)  News of Arafat's impending death and speculation 
over succession have dominated Jordanian conversations in the 
waning days of the Ramadan season.  Many expect that an 
announcement of his passing will be marked in Jordan with a 
non-violent outpouring of emotion; this initial, sympathetic 
reaction is likely to give way to a focus on succession 
issues.  King Abdullah told visiting congressmen that 
regardless of who replaces Arafat in the immediate aftermath 
of his continued incapacitation or death, elections should be 
held as soon as possible.  Most Jordanian interlocutors 
expressed optimism that the transition after Arafat's death 
would be peaceful, and hope it would provide an opening to 
jump-start the peace process.  Nearly all called on the U.S. 
and Israel to take concrete steps to show support for any new 
Palestinian government.  End Summary. 
 
---------------------------------------- 
JORDANIANS WATCHING DEVELOPMENTS CLOSELY 
---------------------------------------- 
 
2.  (C)  Jordanians -- Palestinian-Jordanians and East 
Bankers alike -- are following closely the news of Yasser 
Arafat's deteriorating health.  With no real news on Arafat's 
prognosis, rumors proliferate instead, including speculation 
that Arafat had been poisoned, that Arafat is worse off than 
has been reported, or that he is already dead.  Some critics 
-- while expressing sadness at Arafat's situation on a human 
level -- opine sarcastically that the "powers that be" 
(including Suha Arafat) are busily jockeying over power and 
PLO/PA coffers, waiting for the opportune moment to announce 
his death. 
 
3.  (C)  Loath to comment on the delicate issue of Arafat's 
mortality in public lest it reveal the GOJ's true (negative) 
feelings about the Palestinian leader, Jordanian official 
reaction has been minimal and respectful.  After providing 
the helicopters to transport Arafat out of Ramallah on 
October 28, King Abdullah spoke once with Arafat by telephone 
in Paris on October 31 to wish him a speedy recovery, 
according to Jordan's official news agency.  FM Mulki said in 
an interview: "We in Jordan are following President Arafat's 
health condition with interest and wish him quick recovery." 
Privately, the King told the Charge that when he first saw 
the images of Arafat being transported out of the Muqata'a, 
he felt pity for the ailing leader.  While no love is lost 
between the Hashemites and the Palestinian leader, the GOJ 
will tread lightly, recognizing the potential for a negative 
backlash from its majority Palestinian population. 
 
4.  (C)  Royal Court Minister Samir Rifai told Charge that 
the GOJ would oppose interring Arafat at the Haram al-Sharif 
in Jerusalem (Comment: By all accounts not even a remote 
possibility.)  Jordan did not oppose his burial on the West 
Bank, but Rifai said the King's opinion was the further away 
from Jerusalem Arafat is buried, the better.  However, Rifai 
emphasized that the GOJ would not get involved in this highly 
sensitive issue.  A funeral or burial in Amman were not 
options. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
HOPING FOR A SMOOTH TRANSITION, NEW OPPORTUNITIES 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
5.  (C)  Jordanians expect that news of Arafat's passing 
would be met with widespread expressions of grief and 
sympathy.  The GOJ probably will declare a period of 
mourning.  Peace Corps volunteers report that conversation in 
several East Bank villages is dominated by hopes that any 
mourning period will dovetail with the Eid holidays, and thus 
maximize days off from work. 
 
6.  (C)  Police contacts who expressed concern when news of 
Arafat's illness first broke now downplay the likelihood of 
violence, though they have prepared contingency plans, and 
are closely monitoring the refugee camps. 
 
7.  (C)   Most Jordanians expect an initial outpouring of 
sympathy to be short-lived as many will quickly focus on 
succession issues.  Our contacts hope that the leadership 
transition will go smoothly for the sake of regional 
stability.  Indeed, many have told us they see his eventual 
passing as a chance to break the stalemate in the peace 
process.  Rifai said that under any scenario, it would take 
time for any leadership to emerge, but Arafat's passing would 
almost certainly present an opportunity for positive change 
as nothing could be worse than the current situation.  PLC 
member and political analyst Ghazi Sa'adi (who confided his 
belief that Arafat is already dead) told us he expects a 
peaceful transition, and that relations with Israel could be 
marginally better.  He predicted Abu Mazen will emerge as the 
next president, but also sees positive signs that a national 
government comprised of all factions will emerge.  In an 
interview, Islamic Action Front Secretary General Hamza 
Mansur encouraged national unity as well: "The right option 
in the present phase is what HAMAS and the other Palestinian 
groups have proposed, which is the formation of a unified 
national leadership representing all the groups." 
 
------------------------------- 
ELECTIONS SHOULD FOLLOW QUICKLY 
------------------------------- 
 
8.  (C)  King Abdullah told two separate groups of visiting 
congressmen this week that regardless of who replaces Arafat 
immediately after his death, Palestinian elections should be 
held as soon as possible.  Even if Arafat pulls through, he 
believes his poor health hinders his ability to lead, and the 
"new generation" of Palestinian leaders must be allowed to 
emerge.  He pointed to Marwan Barghouti as a prime candidate, 
and speculated there was more to his relationship with the 
Israelis than met the eye. 
 
------------------------------------------ 
ONUS ON ISRAEL, U.S. TO SUPPORT NEW LEADER 
------------------------------------------ 
 
9.  (C)  Regardless of how Arafat's situation plays out, our 
Jordanian interlocutors see a significant role for Israel and 
the United States in ensuring a smooth transition to the 
post-Arafat era.  During his meeting with visiting 
congressmen, the King urged that the U.S. and Israel avoid 
"the mistakes made when they failed to empower Abu Mazen as 
prime minister."  As soon as the new leaders emerge, it is 
crucial to give them the means to have an impact on the 
socio-economic level so ordinary people understand right away 
what positive benefits they will receive, according to the 
King.  Sa'adi echoed this, saying it would "help 
tremendously" if the U.S. and Israel could devise tangible 
ways to support whatever leadership emerges.  Prominent East 
Banker Suleiman Arabiyyat told us that doing so would help 
the U.S. recoup somewhat its tarnished image in the region. 
Jamal Talhat, an East Banker with the National Defense 
College, agreed, saying it is in the interest of the 
countries surrounding Israel, of the West Bank and Gaza -- as 
well as of the United States -- to do anything they can to 
support any new Palestinian government. 
 
8.  (U)  Baghdad minimize considered. 
 
Please visit Embassy Amman's classified web site at 
http://www.state.sgov/p/nea/amman/ or access the site through 
the Department of State's SIPRNET home page. 
HALE