US embassy cable - 04BRUSSELS4816

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 004816 
 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON PLEASE PASS MARCIEL AND KENNEDY; EUR/SEE FOR 
SILLIMAN; EUR/ERA FOR VOLKER AND BONO 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/09/2014 
TAGS: PREL, TU, EUN, USEU BRUSSELS 
SUBJECT: EU DEBATE ON TURKEY: SIMMERING BUT INCHOATE 
 
REF: A. BRUSSELS 4009 
 
     B. BRUSSELS 4299 
     C. THE HAGUE 2789 
     D. THE HAGUE 2836 
 
Classified By: USEU/POL: Harry O'Hara, reasons 1.4 b/d 
 
1. (C) Summary: The EU's decision on Turkey is now out of the 
hands of Commission officials, but contacts there continue to 
plan for accession talks with Turkey.  Still, they also 
express some uncertainty over how the Dutch will get a 
positive outcome at the December 17 European Council.  EUR 
Deputy Assistant Secretary Kennedy's November 10 visit 
provides a chance to further explore how the Commission and 
the Dutch Presidency will proceed over the next five and a 
half weeks.  End Summary. 
 
2. (C) Debate within the EU over how to handle a date for 
accession talks with Turkey at the December 17 European 
Council has continued to simmer since the October 6 
Commission announcement on Turkey (refs a/b), but the tough 
decisions are now in the hands of EU heads of government, 
under the leadership of the Dutch Presidency. Commission 
officials note that the Dutch Presidency's major concrete 
action to date was to use their agenda-setting Presidency 
role at last week's European Council to limit member-state 
discussion of Turkey to an update on Turkey's application for 
membership.  Our understanding is that the Turkey matter was 
considered "not ready" for high-level discussion, and the 
Dutch sought to avoid what otherwise could have been an 
unconstructive or unduly negative debate over Turkey. 
 
Commission moves ahead... sort of 
--------------------------------- 
 
3. (C) Commission officials working on Turkey are laying the 
groundwork so that the accession talks can begin whenever the 
Council gives them a political green-light. A key Commission 
official, who has traveled to Turkey numerous times in the 
last few weeks, told us that his goal is to be ready for a 
date in 2005.  He had no further specificity, other than to 
say he personally views it impossible before April. 
 
The Challenge for the Dutch Presidency 
------------------------------------- 
 
4.  (C) Based on the very difficult debate in the Commission 
in early October, where a number of Commissioners reflected 
national and political party views, Commission official 
expect debates to be neither smooth nor easy.  Privately, 
they tell us that the Turkish decision to embrace the 
positive thrust of the recommendation, rather than dwell too 
much on the details -- some of which are compromises and 
concessions to particular member state concerns -- has been 
helpful.  Nonetheless, the Commission faces a dilemma. One 
contact said that the Commission finds it "inconceivable" 
that Turkey would get spurned in December: the consequences 
would disastrous for the EU.  But they also worry about how 
all 25 member-states can get to a yes.  They view this 
decision as likely to be the defining moment for the Dutch 
Presidency. 
 
US role? Commission reaction 
---------------------------- 
 
5.  (C) When asked about a US role in helping Turkey, 
Commission officials invariably state that our current 
low-profile is the right tack. Commission contacts tell us 
that extensive US lobbying for Turkey during the Danish 
Presidency actually hurt Turkey. 
 
Council Secretariat Quiet 
------------------------- 
 
6.  (C) So what's going on inside the Council?  Very little 
here in Brussels, as far as we can tell.  Council Secretariat 
officials active on enlargement issues tell us that Council 
apparatus by and large is in a watching mode. We were told 
that the main dynamics were between the Commission and the 
Dutch Presidency, and mainly within the Council between the 
heads of state and the Dutch Presidency (refs c/d). 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
7. (C) From our optic, the situation is very fluid. How the 
EU handles the end game on Turkey is in the hands of the 
Dutch Presidency.  There are many trial balloons being 
floated over starting dates (2005/2006) or conditions (labor 
movement restrictions, Cyprus recognition, etc.), but nothing 
has been decided. If past experience from the 2002 Danish 
Presidency is any guide, all these issues will be intensely 
debated and discussed at the last minute, with the final 
decisions made by prime ministers and presidents.  Our 
Brussels contacts believe European political leaders from 
countries where the majority of the population is skeptical 
about Turkish EU membership will need some sort of 
face-saving compromise measures to bring them to say yes. The 
options we hear being discussed -- a beginning date slightly 
later than the norm, automatic braking mechanisms, or human 
rights or labor caveats -- will have to be weighed against 
the primary goal: a positive decision with a date on December 
17. 
 
McKinley