US embassy cable - 04TAIPEI3531

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 003531 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/RSP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - 
ROBERT PALLADINO 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, KPAO, TW, Cross Strait Politics, Foreign Policy 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: NEW BUSH ADMINISTRATION AND 
CROSS-STRAIT RELATIONS 
 
A) "U.S. Taiwan Policy Goes Backwards to the Clinton 
Administration" 
 
Journalist Sun Yang-ming wrote in the conservative, pro- 
unification "United Daily News" (11/9): 
 
"Although President George W. Bush is reelected, it is 
not easy for U.S.-Taiwan relations to return to as 
close as in the past.  The not-disputed part of 
Secretary of State Colin Powell's remarks on U.S. cross- 
 
SIPDIS 
strait policy during his trip in East Asia, i.e. 
denying Taiwan's sovereignty and promoting dialogue, 
indicates a `push-back' to the relatively balanced 
framework. 
 
"During the Clinton administration the United States 
began a relatively balanced policy after the Chinese 
missile crisis before the 1996 Taiwan presidential 
election.  One the one hand, it tried to improve 
Taiwan's military capabilities, including resuming 
bilateral military cooperation after a 20-year 
suspension and selling new arms to Taiwan.  On the 
other hand, the United States declared a `peaceful 
unification' policy and asked the two sides across the 
strait to start dialogue.  This included forced Taipei 
and Beijing dialogue as exemplified in the 1998 Koo- 
Wang talks in Shanghai. 
 
". When the Bush administration took over, it intended 
to build a U.S.-led unilateral global power structure. 
This had made the DPP-ruled Taiwan just right for a 
position in the strategic plan to contain China. 
 
".The Clinton framework became meaningless under the 
circumstances.  The U.S. Taiwan policy also lost its 
balance and left the impression that the United States 
supported Taiwan independence. 
 
"But the global anti-terror efforts after the 9-11 
incidents and the North Korean nuclear weapon issue 
gave China an indispensable role as the United States 
faces a new global strategic situation. .At the same 
time Taipei was moving faster and faster toward 
independence. 
 
"If the policy implied in Powell's remarks concerning 
Taiwan sovereignty and cross-strait dialogue can be 
implemented, together with continued arms sales and 
military cooperation, it is likely that the current 
tension across the strait as well as between the United 
States and China can be pushed back to the relatively 
stable and eased condition in the past. 
 
"However, this would be a return to the framework of 
the Clinton administration, which had been strongly 
criticized by the Republicans." 
 
B) "Cross-strait Problems Have a Very Long History" 
 
Associate Professor Hsieh Min-chieh of the Graduate 
Institute of Political Science at National Chung Cheng 
University commented in the pro-independence, English- 
language "Taipei Times" (11/9): 
 
"After U.S. President George W. Bush's successful re- 
election, Taiwan-U.S. relations are likely to further 
prosper in light of his friendly attitude in the past. 
Washington will continue the unified and consistent 
cross-strait policy within the basic framework of 
`structural realism' adopted by 11 Republican and 
Democratic presidents over more than half a century: 
maintaining security in the Taiwan Strait while pushing 
for a peaceful resolution to the cross-strait issue. 
 
In the 1950s and 1960s, the United States had to deal 
with an authoritarian Taiwanese government. It was able 
to control the main direction through its control of a 
few leaders. Besides, since the U.S. request of not 
using force tallied with mankind's longing for peace, 
Washington did not contradict its fundamental 
principles. But since the 1990s, the United States is 
facing a democratic Taiwan. Because of their democratic 
development, the Taiwanese people's demand for the 
right to decide their own future has constantly grown, 
while the United States is trapped in a dilemma of 
realism and idealism. After Taiwan successfully 
realized the core value promoted by the United States 
across the world, the United States is ironically 
restricting Taiwan from upholding this value. 
 
"Democracy endows people with the right to decide their 
own future. However, in reality, the United States is 
worried that once Taiwan really chooses to declare de 
jure independence, there is risk of China taking 
extreme action, which might implicate the United 
States. Compared to the 1950s and 1960s, when 
Washington requested that Taiwan control itself 
militarily, the United States is now, after the 1990s, 
requesting Taiwan to restrict itself politically in 
order to achieve a peaceful resolution." 
 
C) "Bush's Agenda on Taiwan" 
 
The conservative/pro-unification, English-language 
"China Post" said in an editorial (11/9): 
 
"One Week before his re-election, President George W. 
Bush sent his Secretary of State Colin Powell on a 
whirlwind visit to Tokyo, Beijing, and Seoul. 
 
"The Powell episode was obviously intended to alleviate 
Beijing's anxiety about having to prepare for war when 
Taipei rewrites its Constitution in 2006 and implements 
it two years later.  The Bush administration won't 
allow that to happen. 
 
"So, at least for the next four years, Beijing is 
assured that Taiwan's separatists are under effective 
U.S. control. 
 
"When Bush meets President Hu Jintao later this month 
during the APEC conference in Chile, concerted efforts 
to bring Taiwan back to the one-China fold will be 
their priority agenda." 
 
KEEGAN