US embassy cable - 04ACCRA2207

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ACCRA 002207 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/08/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, GH 
SUBJECT: FORMER PRESIDENT RAWLINGS RAISES ELECTION CONCERNS 
WITH POLCHIEF 
 
 
Classified By: DCM Jerry Lanier for reasons 1.5 (b) and (d) 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1. (C) On November 6, PolChief met with former President (and 
senior National Democratic Party activist) J.J. Rawlings, at 
Rawlings' request, in his home.  He was joined by his wife 
and two senior NDC party officials.  Rawlings decried what he 
saw as an unlevel playing field in this election, claiming 
the Electoral Commission is biased and the voting register is 
seriously flawed.  If the election is rigged, the military 
could become frustrated and try to stage a coup, he opined. 
He thought the USG was too pro-NPP.  Rawlings hoped foreign 
missions would push for a recheck of the register and would 
post observers in the EC on election day.  PolChief stressed 
our interest in free, fair, peaceful, democratic elections, 
noting that we had met recently with the NDC and all parties, 
and stated that we would be cautious and even-handed in our 
approach to the election.  End summary. 
 
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NO LEVEL PLAYING FIELD 
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2. (C) Rawlings and his associates expressed serious concerns 
that there was not a fair playing field in the run-up to the 
December 7 presidential and parliamentary elections.   Some 
proportedly nonpartisan NGOs involved in election monitoring 
are biased toward the NPP, they alleged, specifically naming 
Pronet and the Center for Democratic Development (CDD).  The 
NPP is using large sums of money to buy votes, deliberately 
distorting NDC rallies on television to make them look 
smaller than they are, using public buses for party 
propaganda, and other alleged abuses of incumbency. 
 
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THE ELECTION REGISTER FLAWED 
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3. (C) Rawlings highlighted problems with the voter register. 
 The EC was biased toward and controlLed by the NPP, he 
alleged, contending that it was tampering with the register. 
Specifically, he alleged that the EC had changed the names of 
some elderly voters to known NPP supporters, and left gaps in 
the serial numbers of the register to facilitate fake voting 
on polling day.  Some photos on the register were fading 
because they were poor quality.  Rawlings and his colleagues 
were appalled with the EC's admission that 55 percent of 
registered voters did not appear to check the register during 
the October 12-17 exhibition.  (Note: This does not appear to 
be unusually high since the purpose of checking the register 
was merely to confirm information on those who were already 
legally registered). They blamed the EC for mismanaging the 
process, requiring voters to make separate trips to register, 
take photos, and check the registration list, and allowing 
too little time to finalize the register.  They suspect the 
NPP will try stuffing ballots either on election day or 
during vote counting. 
 
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OTHER ATTACKS ON THE NPP 
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4. (C) Rawlings and his colleagues scoffed at the NPP's 
proported accomplishments.  The NPP's "So Far, So Good" list 
of achievements was "70 percent lies" or achievements 
initiated by the former PNDC (Rawlings) government.  The 
government of President Kufuor had violated human rights in 
its involvement with the murder of the Ya Na in Dagomba 
(Northern Region) in 2002, was damaging the country's 
economy, and was very corrupt, according to Rawlings.  The 
NPP had "replaced respect with fear of authority", and unduly 
favoring Akans in the government and army (Kufuor is an 
Ashanti, the dominant Akan tribe).   Worst of all, Rawlings 
said, were the NPP's "party police" who "want to create 
havoc." 
 
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HINTS OF A MILITARY COUP 
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5. (C) Rawlings was confident the NDC would win the upcoming 
election despite these problems.  However, he devoted 
significant time to justifying his own military coups of the 
past and suggested that if this election is seen as rigged, 
some in the military could possibly try to stage a coup, "and 
no one could hold them back".  If world opinion had not 
shifted strongly against military intervention, Kufuor would 
have already been overthrown in a coup, he said. 
 
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USG ACTIONS 
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6. (C) Rawlings and his colleagues contended that the USG had 
favored the NPP in 2000 because, he said, the U.S. believed a 
change of party was important to validate Ghana's democracy. 
In 2000, Western donors were too quick to declare the 
election free and fair, Rawlings asserted, stating "don't be 
intoxicated with the NPP because they are the government in 
power."  His wife began the discussion by urging that 
PolChief be "open-minded about the NDC, unlike some of your 
colleagues." 
 
7. (C) PolChief emphasized that the USG's interest is that 
the upcoming election be a free, fair, and peaceful 
democratic representation of the will of the Ghanaian people, 
no matter who wins.  He noted that we had met with the NDC 
presidential candidate John Atta Mills and some his senior 
colleagues, as well as senior party leaders from the NPP and 
other parties, the EC, and civil society.  We had also 
traveled widely during the pre-election period and were 
tracking election events closely.  PolChief noted that we 
take the NDC's concerns seriously and did raise some of these 
issues about the voting register with the EC.  He noted that 
the Embassy was contributing over $1 million to the EC and 
election-related work, and that we would contribute 
substantially to the pool of foreign Mission observers 
deployed in this election.  We would proceed in a cautious, 
even-handed manner.  PolChief highlighted the role party 
polling agents needed to play to ensure the election was fair. 
 
8. (C) PolChief asked what at this point could be done to 
increase the NDC's confidence in the voter register.  "It's 
not too late to do something", Rawlings said, noting his hope 
that the register would be shared with all the parties soon 
(the parties had the list to review two months before the 
2000 election).  He hoped foreign observers would not just 
deploy in the field but would be present in the EC office on 
election day.  "Our polling agents will be vigilant and know 
what to do", he said. 
 
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COMMENT 
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9. (C) There is an element of drama and paranoia in Rawlings' 
world view: the USG is against the NDC, the NPP is bent on 
rigging the election, the EC is biased, the military is 
disgruntled.  While generally welcoming, he was often 
distracted, fussing with picture frames, pills, the stereo, 
his cell phone.  Several times he cut off PolChief's efforts 
to respond to his points.  His claims about EC register 
manipulation was unsubstantiated and fears of NPP 
manipulation probably overstated.  His talk of military coups 
seemed loose and theoretical, but pointed ("I want you to be 
clear about what I'm saying", he asserted). 
 
10. (C) Nonetheless, his deep distrust of the NPP and of 
preparations for this election are disturbing.  We heard 
similar views from NDC party leaders and activists in Kumasi 
(Ashanti region) over the past few days.  NDC workers claim 
the NPP is tearing down their posters, intimidating their 
candidates, and spreading large amounts of cash to buy votes. 
 Some of these claims appear credible, in that it is clear 
that each major party is removing the posters of the other, 
and one presumes that vote-buying is a feature of practically 
all elections in countries such as Ghana.  Rawlings' 
frustration with the EC and the voting register, shared to 
some measure by many in civil society, casts some doubt on 
whether the NDC would readily accept an electoral defeat 
(although Atta Mills, who does not necessarily get his 
marching orders from Rawlings, has told us he would accept 
the results).  Rawlings' thoughts about military coup 
possibilities bear watching, especially in light of the NDC's 
fears of a flawed election and eagerness to get back in power 
(and Ghana's history of coups), as well as the arrest of 
seven people over the weekend for alleged coup plotting 
(reftel XXX). 
 
11. (SBU) The USG -- through USAID and PAS support for the 
election process, our observer teams, our meetings with all 
the parties and ongoing dialogue with the Electoral 
Commission, and our cautious approach to public statements 
about the election -- has been playing an important role in 
strengthening confidence in and acceptability of the election 
results.  The Rawlings meeting underscores the need to 
continue with these efforts. End Comment. 
YATES