US embassy cable - 04QUEBEC193

C O N F I D E N T I A L QUEBEC 000193 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  11/4/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, CA, ECON, Parti Quebecois 
SUBJECT: CG MEETING WITH PQ LEADER LANDRY 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Abigail Friedman, CG, QUEBEC CITY, STATE. 
REASON: 1.4 (b), (d) 
 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Abigail Friedman, CG, QUEBEC CITY, STATE. 
REASON: 1.4 (b), (d) 
 
1. (C) Summary:  CG met with Parti Quebecois (PQ) opposition 
leader Bernard Landry October 28 at his National Assembly office 
and received a crash course on Quebec history and the separatist 
movement in what was her first encounter with the former PQ 
Premier.  Despite intense internal wrangling within PQ ranks and 
challenges to Landry's leadership, the PQ leader appeared 
unfazed and confidently assured CG that Quebec would be an 
independent nation within five to ten years.  End summary. 
 
2.  (C) Landry, a 35-year PQ veteran who led Quebec as Premier 
from 2001-03, established his longstanding relationship with the 
Quebec City consulate and his party's commitment to Quebec-U.S. 
relations.  Landry said Quebec is the most pro-American of the 
ten Canadian provinces.  The U.S.-Canada free trade agreement, 
fiercely resisted by the Mulroney government in Ottawa at the 
time, would not have passed had the then-PQ Quebec government 
not taken a strong favorable position, he added.  Landry sees 
the trend for the Americas as being one of further economic 
integration along a European Union model.  He characterized 
Quebec as an economic powerhouse: The tenth-ranked economic 
force of the OECD, half of Canada's high technology products 
come from Quebec and one out of two books published in Canada 
are from Quebec. 
 
3.  (C) Taking an almost professorial tone, Landry told CG that 
"understanding Quebec is both simple and complex" but one thing 
all Quebecers fundamentally agree upon is that Quebec forms a 
"nation."   The Quebec National Assembly unanimously recognized 
this fact in a motion presented before the legislature several 
months ago.  Landry said that over the last 10 years, 30 
countries had established their nationhood, including the 
Ukraine and other former Soviet and Balkan states.  He believes 
the Quebec sovereignty option is far from being a marginal 
movement and he sees Quebec as moving inexorably toward 
independence. 
 
4.  (C) Landry argued that Quebec independence would be a 
reality before long because of the mathematics of generational 
change.   According to him, 60 percent of young Quebecers 
support the option of sovereignty today.  Young voters who 
supported the PQ in the 1970s and 1980s are today's older 
voters, and they, too, continue to support sovereignty.  Landry 
pointed to a CROP-La Presse poll released October 28, which 
concluded that the PQ would have won Provincial government 
elections had they been called in October.  In that poll, 63 
percent of voters expressed dissatisfaction with the Charest 
government.  Support for sovereignty stood at 47 percent. 
 
5. (C) On the dynamics of federal-provincial relations, Bernard 
Landry said the sizeable presence of the Bloc Quebecois (BQ) in 
Ottawa -- Gilles Duceppe holds 54 of the 75 federal seats in the 
province -- ought to give it leverage with Martin's minority 
government.  But this was not happening.  Instead, the BQ has 
exasperated the rest of Canada, he said.  According to Landry, 
PM Martin knows his party cannot win Quebec in the next election 
and his best bet is to increase voter support in Ontario and 
Alberta. 
 
Comment 
---------- 
 
6. (C) The PQ is presently in disarray, and Landry himself 
conceded as much in his meeting with the CG.  He argued, 
however, that the PQ is merely digesting the loss of the last 
election and will come out of this period of political 
soul-searching stronger and ready to take power.  Whether Landry 
retains leadership of the party after this soul-searching 
remains to be seen.  The next party congress, where Landry's 
mandate is up for renewal, is scheduled for June, 2005.  Between 
now and then, Landry will be focused on fending off challenges 
to unseat him. 
 
 
 
FRIEDMAN