US embassy cable - 04TAIPEI3521

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 003521 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/10/2013 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, CH, TW, Cross Strait Politics 
SUBJECT: CHEN SHUI-BIAN MAKES PROVOCATIVE OFF-THE-CUFF 
REMARKS 
 
REF: TAIPEI 3409 
 
Classified By: AIT Acting Director David J. Keegan, Reason: 1.4 (B/D) 
 
1. (C) Summary: During an open-press November 7 speech to a 
group of pro-independence university professors, President 
Chen Shui-bian emphasized Taiwan as a "sovereign and 
independent country" and asserted that Taiwan's current 
constitution was "made in China, for China" and was not 
appropriate for Taiwan.  Chen shared the stage at the event 
with former President Lee Teng-hui, who told the audience 
that Taiwan needed to elect a Pan-Green majority on December 
11 so it could change the constitution to create a "Republic 
of Taiwan."  Senior aides to the president say they were 
surprised by Chen's comments, which they did not write, and 
they speculate that Chen was once more playing to the crowd. 
Officials assert that they will try to limit the fallout on 
cross-Strait relations by having the president offer more 
concrete gestures of goodwill in upcoming public speeches. 
However, these same officials fear that Chen will make 
further destabilizing statements while on the Legislative 
Yuan (LY) campaign trail in the lead up to the December 11 
election.  The formulations floated by Chen on November 7 are 
likely to further increase suspicions in Beijing that Chen is 
pursuing a hidden independence agenda in concert with Lee 
Teng-hui.  End Summary. 
 
Chen Falls Off the Wagon 
------------------------ 
 
2. (C) President Chen Shui-bian emphasized Taiwan's 
sovereignty during a November 7 speech to the 
pro-independence Taiwan Association of University Professors. 
 Chen asserted that "we have 23 million people, a territory, 
a government, an army... if you say this is not a sovereign, 
independent country, what is it?  Taiwan is a country, Taiwan 
is a beautiful country, Taiwan is an advanced country, Taiwan 
is a great country."  To drive home the point, Chen added 
that "Taiwan is a sovereign and independent country and no 
person or country can deny this fact."  Chen bemoaned, 
however, that Taiwan's 23 million people could not enjoy 100 
percent sovereignty because of unique historical factors and 
"China's unfeeling suppression." 
 
3. (C) Chen went on to criticize the "Republic of China 
Constitution currently in use in Taiwan."  He stated that 
this constitution was not established "in Taiwan or for 
Taiwan," but rather was "established in China and for China." 
 For this reason, Chen pledged to complete a "major reform of 
the constitutional system" (wancheng xianzheng da gaige) to 
produce a "New Taiwan Constitution" (Xin Taiwan Xianfa). 
Much of the rest of his speech was devoted to criticizing 
"those people" in Taiwan who have spent the past four years 
trying to undermine the Chen administration in order to curry 
favor with China.  He said that some even held up the "enemy 
country" (diguo) as their "mother country" (zuguo).  These 
same people, Chen continued, also remain confused over 
Taiwan's history and geography, believing that "China and 
Mongolia" are parts of "our country's" (benguo) territory. 
Chen stated that "we all know that the People's Republic of 
China is a different country and the Republic of Mongolia is 
a different country, they are not our country."  (Note: The 
Liberty Times reported that Chen used the term "China" 
(Zhongguo), while the Presidential Office transcript and most 
other media outlets quote him as referring to the "People's 
Republic of China."  End Note.) 
 
4. (C) Speaking at the same event, former President Lee 
Teng-hui offered a similar line on Taiwan's history and 
sovereignty.  Lee argued that only if the Pan-Green wins a 
majority on December 11 can Taiwan create a new constitution 
that will "correct" Taiwan's official name.  Both Lee and 
Chen praised the sponsoring organization's work to promote 
awareness of Taiwan's democratic reforms and sovereignty. 
 
Chen Advisors Express Surprise, Annoyance 
----------------------------------------- 
 
5. (C) Senior Chen aides expressed surprise, even annoyance, 
over the president's November 7 comments.  National Security 
Council (NSC) Senior Advisor for cross-Strait affairs Chen 
Chung-hsin said that NSC Secretary General Chiou I-jen had 
scheduled a meeting on November 8 to discuss how to keep the 
president from going beyond his brief during 40 planned 
campaign appearances scheduled to start on November 12. 
According to Chen, Chiou read about the president's remarks 
in the papers the morning after they were made.  "Chiou said 
he thought we still had a week to plan how to prevent exactly 
this sort of thing from occurring," Chen added. 
 
6. (C) Longtime presidential senior speechwriter Lin 
Jin-chang told AIT that the president was not speaking off a 
prepared text.  "He got some talking points on educational 
reform, but apparently decided to discard them and talk off 
the cuff," Lin added.  Lin speculated that Chen "got carried 
away by the audience and Lee Teng-hui."  The NSC's Chen said 
that in order to limit the damage from the November 7 
remarks, the president agreed to a suggestion by Chiou that 
he give a series of more conciliatory public statements. 
Chen said that the president expressed a willingness to 
"flesh out some of the concepts from his October 10 National 
Day speech" in order to ease PRC fears.  Speechwriter Lin 
acknowledged that the November 7 speech would damage the 
president's credibility with Beijing, but offered that it 
could have been worse.  "At least he didn't say this at a 
formal occasion," Lin asserted, adding that "Beijing should 
realize that these were just informal comments to a group of 
fundamentalists."  (Comment: Lin is among the president's 
three longest serving confidantes and author of virtually all 
of Chen's major speeches over the past decade.  His apparent 
belief that public messages can be compartmentalized for 
different audiences track quite closely with the president's 
long-standing practice.  End Comment.) 
 
KMT: Chen Toying with Independence 
---------------------------------- 
 
7. (C) KMT Spokesman Chang Jung-kung publicly criticized the 
president on November 8 for saying different things to 
different audiences and called on Chen to "go ahead and 
insert the 'State-to-State theory' into the constitution." 
Chang also assailed the president's comments on Taiwan's 
geographical definition, asserting that the "country's" 
borders should be seen in historical terms, not just from the 
perspective of what the government currently administers. 
 
Comment: Political Ploy or Ideological Commitment? 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
8. (S) Chen's November 7 comments are disturbing regardless 
of whether or not you believe the alibi provided by our NSC 
contacts.  If Chen were simply caught up in the emotion of 
the crowd, we may be in store for another rough period 
between now and the election on December 11.  It is likely 
that Beijing will take the even less charitable, but perhaps 
as plausible, view that Chen's November 7 remarks reflect his 
true thinking, or at least the thinking of the majority 
within his own political base.  While Chen did not explicitly 
contradict his May 20 pledge not to touch on sovereignty 
definitions during the upcoming round of constitutional 
reforms, his formulations certainly suggests where his 
sympathies lie.  Senior Chen administration officials, 
including his Vice President, Premier, and Foreign Minister, 
have been more than willing to voice interpretations of the 
president's intentions very different than those provided to 
us by Chen's scripted messages and the more pragmatic 
advisors who wrote them. 
 
9. (S) Chen's November 7 remarks once again raises serious 
questions over the president's willingness to level with 
elements of his own base in pursuit of broader regional 
security interests.  The inability (or unwillingness) of 
Taiwan's opposition parties to offer a credible alternative 
to the DPP has shifted the political balance away from where 
it once lay.  Responsibility for putting down markers on how 
far Taiwan can push the independence agenda may increasingly 
fall on our shoulders.  The reactions to Secretary Powell's 
recent interviews in Beijing (Reftel) and to President Bush's 
December 9, 2003 warning against unilateral changes to the 
status quo both demonstrate that the Taiwan public takes USG 
views seriously.  AIT will continue to press Chen 
administration officials on the need for restraint in 
private.  Public warnings from Washington will also be an 
important tool for reminding Taiwan's politicians and people 
that there are limits to our tolerance for this kind of 
provocative talk. 
PAAL