US embassy cable - 04CARACAS3432

C O N F I D E N T I A L  CARACAS 003432 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NSC FOR CBARTON 
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD 
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/04/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, PHUM, VE 
SUBJECT: RED MAP IN VENEZUELA:  WHAT CHAVEZ WON IN THE 
REGIONALS 
 
REF: CARACAS 03382 
 
Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor, 
for Reasons 1.4(b). 
 
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Summary 
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1. (C) Pro-Chavez mayors won 270 of 337 municipalities in the 
October 31 regional elections, up from the previously held 
115.  The National Electoral Council settled the one 
remaining dispute in the governors' races November 4, giving 
the victory to the pro-Chavez challenger in Carabobo State. 
International observers, largely from electoral authorities 
in the region, issued a statement calling the elections 
transparent and trustworthy and praising the automated voting 
system.  The GOV called its win "a consolidation of 
democracy," while opponents warned that President Hugo Chavez 
now controls most political institutions in Venezuela.  Zulia 
State Governor Manuel Rosales, one of two opposition 
Governors elected, is likely to increase his visibility as a 
principal opposition leader.  End Summary. 
 
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Chavismo Takes Lion's Share of Mayoralties 
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2. (U) Pro-Chavez candidates won 270 of 337 mayoralties 
(including the Caracas federal district) in the October 31 
regional elections (ref), according to preliminary results 
from the National Electoral Council (CNE).  The Chavista 
sweep is a net gain of 155 mayoralties.  Accion Democratica 
candidates reportedly won 50 mayoralties, with Primero 
Justicia (PJ) finishing a very distant third with three 
mayoralties.  PJ candidate in Sucre Municipality in Caracas 
Carlos Ocariz, who had rejected the preliminary CNE results, 
conceded to incumbent Mayor Jose Vicente Rangel Avalos, the 
son of Vice President Jose Vicente Rangel.  Despite being 
declared the loser initially by the CNE, pro-Chavez Maracaibo 
Mayor Giancarlo DiMartino was proclaimed the winner after all 
the tally sheets were considered. 
 
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Opposition Governors Drop Challenges 
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3. (C) Miranda State Governor Enrique Mendoza, the head of 
the Coordinadora Democratica, conceded his defeat to Fifth 
Republic Movement (MVR) candidate Diosdado Cabello November 
3.  Mendoza's aides told poloff November 2 their own 
tabulation of the tally sheets gave the victory to Cabello by 
18,000 votes.  The failure of Accion Democratica poll workers 
to provide copies of the tally sheets hindered their 
tabulation of results to present a challenge.  They conceded, 
nonetheless, that the information indicated Mendoza had lost. 
 
 
4.  (C) For Carabobo State, the CNE proclaimed pro-Chavez 
challenger Luis Felipe Acosta Carles the winner November 4. 
Incumbent Henrique Salas Feo challenged the initial results 
prepared by the local electoral authorities.  The dispute led 
to an agreement by CNE director Jorge Rodriguez to review and 
re-count of the tally sheets November 3.  When Salas Feo 
complained that the CNE was not abiding by the agreement, 
Rodriguez and CNE President Francisco Carrasquero called him 
a liar, told reporters that CNE regulations do not allow for 
the actions Salas Feo claimed were needed to settle the 
dispute and refuted the incumbent's claims.  Rodriguez 
proclaimed Acosta Carles the winner of the election.  Two 
hours later, the Electoral Chamber of the Supreme Court 
rejected Salas' petition to stay the results based on alleged 
procedural violations.  Movement to Socialism (MAS) Secretary 
General Leopoldo Puchi told poloff November 3 he thought some 
of Salas' arguments were without merit and an attempt to 
raise doubts about the announced results. 
 
5.  (C) In Yaracuy State, one of the closest of the 
gubernatorial races, incumbent Eduardo Lapi also conceded on 
November 3.  Prior to his concession, the National Guard took 
over the Governor's Palace to ensure the change in office. 
Lapi had challenged the CNE's results announced November 1, 
saying they were based on too small a sample of returns.  He 
 
 
conceded after the local electoral board proclaimed his rival 
from Chavez's Fifth Republic Movement, Carlos Jimenez, the 
winner. 
 
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Undisclosed International Observers Back CNE 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
6. (C) A group of international observers convoked by the CNE 
November 1 praised the transparency and pacific nature of the 
elections.  The statement purports to be the consensus view 
of electoral officials from the region, the Andean 
Parliament, and local diplomats.  The statement specifically 
notes that the automated voting system, attacked by the 
opposition for fraud after the August 15 presidential recall 
referendum, is an "important advance in the level of 
confidence and control of the results."  The CNE invited the 
observers just days before the election.  In Caracas, the 
Ministry of Foreign Affairs circulated a note to all 
embassies and diplomatic missions inviting Ambassadors to 
participate.  We did not respond.  The EU ambassadors 
discussed the invitation, according to an official at the 
British Embassy, but declined due to the late hour of the 
invitation and lack of minimum conditions to mount a credible 
observation mission.  The Mexican DCM participated in the 
observation but refused to join the statement due to concerns 
that the observers did not have sufficient access to truly 
pass judgment on the elections.  (Note: It was for similar 
reasons that the EU did not observe the presidential recall 
referendum.) 
 
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Comment 
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7. (C) In addition to the five branches of the GOV, President 
Hugo Chavez now has control of nearly all state and 80% of 
local governments.  GOV domination of the regions raises 
questions about the future health of decentralized and 
pluralistic government in Venezuela.  This is a devastating 
loss of political space for Chavez opponents, who make up at 
least 40 percent of the Venezuelan electorate.  Rosales 
appears to be the last man standing in the opposition, but he 
is a regional star with baggage from his AD roots as well as 
from his apparent support of the short-lived administration 
of Pedro Carmona during the April 2002 coup.  He may, in 
fact, be the perfect candidate for Chavez to beat in the 2006 
elections.  For the MVR, with overwhelming control of the 
government will come increased responsibility and the need to 
satisfy voters. 
Brownfield 
 
 
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      2004CARACA03432 - CONFIDENTIAL