US embassy cable - 01GABORONE3732

C O N F I D E N T I A L GABORONE 003732 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: (12/3/2006) 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, BC, ZI 
SUBJECT: MOGAE ON MUGABE: HE WILL STAY IN POWER "BY 
HOOK OR BY CROOK" 
 
REF: GABORONE 3681 
 
(U) CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR JOHN E. LANGE FOR REASONS 
1.5 (B AND D). 
 
 
1. (C) PRESIDENT FESTUS MOGAE (PROTECT) BELIEVES THERE 
IS NO CHANCE TO INFLUENCE ZIMBABWEAN PRESIDENT ROBERT 
MUGABE TO HOLD FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS BY MARCH.  HE 
SAID MUGABE IS ACTING LIKE A "WOUNDED BUFFALO" AND IT 
WOULD BE BETTER TO HAVE THE ELECTIONS SOONER RATHER THAN 
LATER TO LESSEN THE HARM THAT IS BEING DONE. 
 
2. (C) THE AMBASSADOR RAISED THE ISSUE OF ZIMBABWE 
DURING A 12/1 DINNER AT WHICH MAURICE TEMPELSMAN AND THE 
HARVARD AIDS INSTITUTE BESTOWED THEIR 2001 AIDS 
LEADERSHIP AWARD ON MOGAE.  MOGAE AVERTED THAT MUGABE 
DOES NOT CARE WHAT ANY OUTSIDERS THINK AND WILL STAY IN 
POWER "BY HOOK OR BY CROOK."  IN RESPONSE TO A QUESTION 
AS TO WHETHER THERE WOULD BE FURTHER SADC ENGAGEMENT 
WITH MUGABE AND HIS GOVERNMENT PRIOR TO THE MARCH 
ELECTIONS, MOGAE SAID THERE PROBABLY WOULD BE MEETINGS 
BUT HE SAW NO CHANCE OF SUCCESS.  IN PAST SADC 
DISCUSSIONS ON ZIMBABWE, HE SAID HE HAD LED THE 
DISCUSSION OF ECONOMIC CONCERNS AND WAS THEN FOLLOWED BY 
PRESIDENT MBEKI.  NOW, HE SAID (ONLY HALF-JOKINGLY) THAT 
THE ONLY WAY TO REMOVE MUGABE FROM POWER WOULD BE TO 
ATTACK MILITARILY AND REMOVE HIM FORCEFULLY.  THE 
AMBASSADOR DESCRIBED A SCENARIO IN WHICH MUGABE AND 
ZANU-PF WERE SO UNPOPULAR THAT THEY WOULD ACTUALLY LOSE 
THE ELECTIONS DESPITE ALL OF THE VIOLENCE AND 
INTIMIDATION IN ADVANCE.  MOGAE RESPONDED THAT MUGABE IS 
VERY SMART AND IS ALREADY WORKING TO PREVENT THAT 
POSSIBILITY, INCLUDING THROUGH HIS LATEST EFFORT TO 
DISENFRANCHISE THOSE ZIMBABWEANS LIVING ABROAD. 
 
3.   (C) THE CONVERSATION THEN TURNED TO THE IMPACT ON 
SOUTHERN AFRICA AND THE CONTINENT AS A WHOLE.  THE 
AMBASSADOR NOTED THAT THE CREDIBILITY OF NEPAD, WHICH 
EMPHASIZES AFRICA'S RESPONSIBILITY FOR GOOD GOVERNANCE, 
COULD BE UNDERCUT IF THE ELECTIONS WERE STOLEN.  MOGAE 
DISMISSED THE IMPORTANCE OF NEPAD, WHICH HE VIEWS AS 
BROAD RHETORIC HAVING LITTLE REAL IMPACT ON THE GROUND. 
HE SAID THE COB HAS GONE ALONG WITH THE PROGRAM BECAUSE 
IT AGREES WITH THE GOALS BUT AT THE SAME TIME IT HAS LOW 
EXPECTATIONS FOR IT. 
 
4.  (C) THE AMBASSADOR ASKED MOGAE IF HE FORESAW STRONG 
MEASURES BY SADC, POSSIBLY EVEN INCLUDING EXPULSION, 
SHOULD THE ELECTIONS TURN OUT AS BADLY AS MANY PREDICT. 
MOGAE WAS UNCERTAIN ABOUT SADC PROCEDURES IN SUCH A CASE 
BUT ADDED THAT ZIMBABWE'S "APOLOGISTS" (UNNAMED) WOULD 
ARGUE THAT THE SITUATIONS IN SADC MEMBER STATES ANGOLA 
AND THE DRC WERE SUCH THAT ZIMBABWE DID NOT MERIT BEING 
SINGLED OUT FOR EXPLUSION FROM THE ORGANIZATION. 
 
5.  (C) COMMENT.  MOGAE'S VIEWS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE 
PESSIMISM EXPRESSED TO US EARLIER BY FOREIGN MINISTER 
MERAFHE (REFTEL).  MOGAE BRIDLES AT THE MEMORY OF BEING 
BERATED BY THE "WAR VETERANS" DURING THE SADC TASK FORCE 
VISIT TO ZIMBABWE ON SEPTEMBER 9.  DESPITE OUR EFFORTS 
TO ENCOURAGE CONTINUED ACTIVE ENGAGEMENT, THE COB NOW 
SEEMS TO HAVE GIVEN UP ON THE PROSPECTS OF INFLUENCING 
MUGABE. 
 
LANGE