US embassy cable - 04PARIS8063

C O N F I D E N T I A L  PARIS 008063 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/04/2014 
TAGS: PREL, KPAL, IS, FR 
SUBJECT: ARAFAT IN CONTINUED, POSSIBLY IRREVERSIBLE COMA 
 
REF: A. JERUSALEM 4161 AND PREVIOUS 
     B. PARIS 7985 
     C. PARIS 7930 
 
Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Josiah Rosenblatt, 
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1.  (C) Summary: As of 1030 local (0430 EST) November 5, MFA 
officials described Arafat as in a continued coma, with 
uncertainty whether his condition is irreversible or what 
permanent damage he might suffer if he regains consciousness. 
There is still no diagnosis on the cause of his condition. 
In successive discussions with us late November 4, senior MFA 
and Elysee officials described Arafat as unconscious or 
semi-conscious for undetermined causes since November 3, but 
not on the brink of death.  President Chirac, just prior to 
departing for the European Council in Brussels, briefly 
visited Arafat mid-afternoon November 4, and the Palestinian 
leader reportedly responded with a "twitch and a smile" to 
Chirac's presence.  Chirac's Middle East advisor described 
Arafat as at "3 or 4" on a medical coma scale between 1 and 
15.  Results of toxicology tests should be complete by 
November 5, though French officials caution that French law 
prevents Arafat's doctors from releasing medical information 
without Suha Arafat's permission.  Suha Arafat has sought to 
keep a tight lid on public disclosures, and initially 
resisted public clarification November 4 that Arafat was 
not/not dead.  FM Barnier's Cabinet Director told us November 
4 he saw three options before the GoF: 1) the GoF flies 
Arafat to Gaza before he dies, 2) Arafat recovers, and 3) 
Arafat dies in France, at which the GoF would have a small 
ceremony at the hospital before flying the body immediately 
back to Gaza.  End summary. 
 
 
NOVEMBER 5 UPDATE 
------------------- 
 
2.  (U) The French daily "Le Figaro" reported November 5 that 
Arafat is brain dead, in an irreversible coma and on life 
support, citing an unnamed French doctor treating Arafat. 
Paris PLO representative Leila Shahid publicly denied the 
"brain death" stories early November 5, and, while confirming 
for the first time that Arafat was in a coma, described it as 
"reversible." 
 
3.  (C) MFA DAS-equivalent for Israeli/Palestinian/Levant 
Affairs Christian Jouret told poloff at 1030 local November 5 
that Arafat remained in very bad condition and a continued 
coma.  He stressed, though, that it was unclear whether 
Arafat's condition was reversible, and what degree of 
permanent neurological damage he might suffer if he did 
regain consciousness.  (Late November 4, Jouret told us 
doctors' reports had confirmed that Arafat would suffer 
permanent neurological damage if he recovered.)  Asked to 
confirm press reports of negotiations ongoing between France, 
Egypt and Israel over where Arafat should be buried, Jouret 
said he was unaware of GoF involvement in such talks but did 
not exclude that such discussions might already be underway 
between the Israelis and Palestinians. Jouret added that the 
GoF would be prepared to act quickly if asked by Arafat's 
entourage to transport the leader outside France, but he 
underlined that no such request had been made and that GoF 
action would be unlikely with both Chirac and FM Barnier out 
of the country today.  (Chirac is in Brussels and heads to 
Abu Dhabi for Shaykh Zayed funeral November 5, while Barnier 
fills in for Chirac at EU Council lunch with Iraqi PM Allawi 
and meets with Iraqi FM Zebari in Brussels today as well.) 
 
 
CHIRAC-ARAFAT VISIT NOVEMBER 4 
---------------- 
 
4.  (C) Between 1700 and 1800 local time (1100 and 1200 EST) 
November 4, we received a series of updates from senior MFA 
and Elysee officials on Arafat's health condition, amid 
conflicting press reports, including a false rumor that 
Arafat had died which was later publicly refuted by the 
French military hospital staff.  In the first update, at 1705 
local, MFA Cabinet Advisor Pierre Vimont confirmed to DCM 
that Arafat has been unconscious for past 24 hours, and 
doctors could not explain the cause for the sudden 
deterioration.  Before departing Paris for Brussels for the 
European Council, Chirac had visited Arafat briefly at around 
1515 local, and spoke mainly to Suha Arafat.  Vimont reported 
that when Chirac put his hand on Arafat's arm, Arafat 
responded with a "twitch and a smile," which Vimont said was 
likely a reflex.  MFA DAS-equivalent for 
Israel/Palestinian/Levant issues Christian Jouret later told 
poloff that Chirac had entered the room and greeted Arafat by 
saying, "Hello, Dr. Chirac is in." He too reported that 
doctors were unsure whether Arafat's response was a reflex or 
not, and described Arafat in "some kind of coma." 
 
5. (C) Elysee Middle East Advisor Andre Parant, who 
accompanied Chirac on the Arafat hospital visit offered a 
slightly more positive description of the PA chairman than 
his MFA counterparts.  Parant described Arafat as 
"semi-conscious," open eyed during the Chirac visit, and in 
very bad condition, but "not dead yet."  Parant added that on 
a medical scale of 1 to 15, with 15 being a full coma, 
doctors had described Arafat as a "3 or 4."  The main cause 
of concern for doctors was that they did not know the cause 
of Arafat's deterioration.  Certain tests to facilitate a 
diagnosis were still not possible, for example, due to a 
blood coagulation problem.  Parant also confirmed press 
reports that Arafat was on a ventilator, but described this 
as routine for patients in his condition. 
 
 
TOXICOLOGY TESTS, POISONING RUMORS 
----------- 
 
6.  (C) Parant confirmed that toxicology tests had been 
completed and results should be available by late November 4 
or 5.  Acknowledging the potential dangers of continued 
rumors of an Arafat poisoning, Parant cautioned that negative 
test results might not dampen irrational belief among some 
Palestinians that Arafat had been poisoned.  Poloff stressed 
the need for the GoF to help quash such rumors once test 
results were complete, given the potential for violence to 
ensue over accusations of Israeli complicity in Arafat's 
illness.  Parant expressed sympathy, but made no promises. 
He stressed that, under French law, Arafat's French (and MOD 
employee) doctors could not release any public information 
about his condition without the consent of his family, namely 
Suha Arafat. The problem, according to Parant, was Suha did 
not want to release any information about Arafat's condition, 
and was reluctant even to approve the French doctors' 
November 4 announcement that Arafat was not/not dead, though 
she finally relented and allowed the announcement to go 
forward.  According to Parant, Suha had threatened to sue the 
French doctors treating Arafat if they released to the public 
any medical information on Arafat without her consent. 
Parant concluded that, if Suha agreed to release the 
toxicology reports, there would be no problem.  If, however, 
she found the results inconclusive or sought to prevent a 
public announcement of the results, that was her prerogative. 
 
NEXT STEPS? 
-------- 
 
7. (C) Of our GoF interlocutors, only Barnier Cabinet 
Director Vimont was forthcoming on discussing potential next 
steps in detail, during his November 4 conversation with DCM. 
 Vimont said he saw three potential scenarios: 1) the GoF 
flies Arafat to Gaza soon so he dies in Gaza, 2) Arafat 
recovers, and 3) Arafat dies in France, at which the GoF 
would need to have a "little ceremony" at the hospital, and 
then fly him right away to Gaza.  One complication, remained 
that if Arafat died in France, GoF law requires autopsy in 
cases where death is due to unknown causes.  Vimont suggested 
that GoF was assuming that Arafat's family wanted burial to 
take place in Gaza and that burial would need to take place 
quickly; it was not clear if the GoF had consulted with Suha 
on this. Vimont did not see a Jerusalem burial as an option. 
 
8. (C) Vimont added that he saw three groups of Palestinians 
gathered  in Paris: 1) a small group at hospital, 2) those 
trying to get in to hospital, and 3) a group staying at 
Intercontinental hotel, who are leaking the dire health 
information to the press. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
9.  (C) Comment: With the tight public information lock-down 
on Arafat's health being maintained by Suha Arafat, and the 
GoF keeping its own information limited to the highest levels 
(Jouret, for example, told us the MFA learned of Chirac's 
visit to Arafat via French TV), we expect the current flow of 
conflicting reports and misinformation (especially from the 
Arafat entourage) to continue unabated.  Given the reluctance 
of Suha Arafat and Leila Shahid to confirm known details of 
Arafat's deterioration, it is entirely likely that public 
announcement of Arafat's death, when and if that occurs, may 
be delayed by the Palestinian hospital entourage.  At the 
same time, with the French president and FM out of the 
country November 5, we do not think French officials see 
Arafat as literally on the brink of death, although it 
appears his condition is indeed very, very bad.  End comment. 
 
Leach