US embassy cable - 04ACCRA2182

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ACCRA 002182 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/03/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, GH 
SUBJECT: GHANA ELECTION SEASON UPDATE: ONE MONTH TO GO 
 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1. (C) A month before Ghana's December 7 presidential and 
parliamentary elections, the campaign is heating up but the 
political atmosphere is generally peaceful.  The ruling New 
Patriotic Party (NPP) appears to have the edge over its three 
party rivals. Poor turnout during the public exhibition of 
the voter register and errors found among those who did show 
up may raise some questions about the legitimacy of the 
registration.  Nonetheless, the Electoral Commission is 
confident it can correct errors on the register.  Most local 
analysts see little potential for polling day rigging and 
believe the conditions are in place for a free and fair 
election.  The election is likely to be peaceful, although 
chieftancy and other disputes could lead to minor 
election-related violence.  The volatile Northern Region is 
quiet at the moment, following an isolated incident of 
violence in early October. End summary. 
 
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NPP Likely to Win 
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2. (U) Four presidential candidates officially filed their 
nominations with the Electoral Commission (EC) between 
October 20-22. The candidates and their running mates are: 
President John Kufuor and Alhaji Aliu Mahama for the New 
Patriotic Party (NPP), John Atta-Mills and Alhaji Mohammed 
Mumuni for the National Democratic Congress, Dr. Edward 
Mahama and Mr. Dan Ofori-Atta of the People's National 
Convention, representing the Grand Coalition (which comprises 
three small parties, including the PNC), and Mr. George 
Aguddey and Mr. Bright Kwame Ameyaw. 
 
3. (C) Political analysts here increasingly expect a solid 
NPP victory in both the presidential and parliamentary races. 
 While the NDC still has a hold on some traditional 
strongholds, it is hampered by the convalescence of its vice 
presidential candidate (still recovering from a car accident) 
and by financial difficulties.  It is not clear that the 
prominence of former President J.J. Rawlings in the campaign 
is helping the NDC.  One journalist contact highlighted 
Rawlings' continued charisma and draw, but other analysts see 
Rawlings as a liability overall, reminding voters of the 
human rights abuses and authoritarian legacy of his years in 
power.  Senior NDC politician Hannah Tetteh Kpodar told 
PolOff on November 3 that "it would be a miracle if NDC 
stumbles into victory."  She also said that the NDC would 
likely lose two seats in Parliament that it currently holds. 
 
4. (C) Academic and NGO political contacts agree that, while 
the economic situation of the average Ghanaian has not 
improved markedly, most voters seem willing to give the NPP 
another four years to deliver.  The NPP reportedly has been 
more active than the NDC in using its wealth and incumbency 
to buy food, bicycles and other items for voters.  High cocoa 
prices and yields should also benefit the NPP.  While the NPP 
is expected to do well, a recent study by the Center for 
Democracy and Development supported other sources in noting 
that the NPP has suffered more than other parties from 
intra-party conflict and corruption in the parliamentary 
primaries. 
 
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The Electoral Commission Still Stumbling 
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5. (SBU) Since the Electoral Commission (EC) began its 
nationwide voter registration exercise in March 2004, its 
efforts to create a 'clean' voter register have been hampered 
by resource and organizational problems. The EC's recent 
public exhibition of the register was disappointing. 
According to local press reports, turnout to examine names on 
the register was low; some centers recorded only 50 to 60 
percent of voters coming to verify the accuracy of their 
names and registration details. A number of those who 
examined their records found errors. According to a 
journalist contact, ten percent of those who came to check 
the roster in Western region found errors. 
 
6. (U) Representatives from all the political parties have 
called on the EC to hold a second, final exhibition of the 
register. Representatives of the EC told PolOff on November 3 
that it will not do so (and they have stated this publicly), 
but will instead mobilize its efforts to answer the 
challenges raised in the first exhibition. EC officials told 
PolOffs they are confident they will rectify all problems and 
consider any legitimate challenges to the register before the 
election. They acknowledge they are pressed for time, but 
will begin printing ballots next week and tell us they do not 
anticipate a delay in preparations for the election. 
 
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Isolated Concerns about Election Violence 
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7. (C) Political contacts expect a generally peaceful 
election, especially given the repeated pleas for peace by 
all political parties.  Nonetheless, there is the potential 
for local chieftancy disputes, personality clashes, 
commercial rivalries and other local issues to result in 
localized incidents of violence.  The Western Regional Police 
Commander recently told PolChief that he is worried about 
such election-related violence and the inadequacy of his 
small police force to respond. 
 
8. (SBU) The Northern Region remains volatile, with large 
quantities of small arms in the area and simmering ethnic 
tensions. An unresolved chieftancy dispute that led to the 
murder of the Ya-Na in 2002 (a case which is still under 
investigation), as well as a two-year state of emergency that 
was only lifted in August, lends added tension to the Dagbon 
and Tamale areas. On October 3, a 14-year-old boy (an alleged 
NDC supporter) was fatally shot during a clash between NPP 
and NDC party supporters in the area. There are many rumors 
and few facts about this case.  After the shooting, police 
raided the suspect's home and found in his freezer an AK47 
which matches the type of bullet that killed the boy. The 
suspect, Baba Nkarbo (a well-known NPP activist), and an 
alleged accomplice, Nuhu Nkarbo, are currently in police 
custody while investigations continue.  Observers agree that 
there is the potential for more politically-linked violence 
in the Northern Region in the coming month. 
 
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Comment 
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9. (C)  With one month to go, the NPP is not taking a 
presidential victory for granted.  Campaign rhetoric is 
generally civil and the political atmosphere is peaceful. 
The EC's problems with the register are troubling and it will 
have to scramble to get ready in the coming month. 
International donors to the EC are frustrated with its 
institutional weaknesses, delays and cost overruns.  Despite 
these problems, which do not appear too major, the Ghana 
election seems likely to be generally peaceful and fair.  End 
Comment. 
YATES