US embassy cable - 04NEWDELHI7053

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 007053 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/04/2014 
TAGS: PREL, TH, VM, BM, LA, KS, JA, IN, ASEAN 
SUBJECT: LOOKING AHEAD TO ASEAN: INDIA ENGAGES EAST ASIA 
 
REF: A. NEWDELHI 6983 
     B. NEWDELHI 6472 
 
Classified By: PolCouns Geoff Pyatt.  Reasons 1.4 (B,D). 
 
1.  (C) Summary: The GOI has engaged actively with East Asian 
capitals prior to the November 30 ASEAN Plus One Summit in 
Laos.  India's two-track approach to these 
states--multilaterally through organizations like ASEAN, and 
bilaterally--exemplifies New Delhi's strategy of expanding 
economic and geographic horizons, with a wary eye on China. 
Heading to Laos with Plus One status, India's Prime Minister 
Singh will look to assert India's significance beyond South 
Asia.  We see competition with China as a growing factor in 
India's ASEAN calculus.  End Summary. 
 
Two-Pronged Approach 
-------------------- 
 
2.  (C) India's approach towards East Asia is "two-pronged" 
with both multilateral and bilateral tracks, according to 
Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses researcher Deba 
Mohanty.  While pursuing bilateral cooperation such as 
preferential trade agreements (PTA), India works 
multilaterally through organizations such as BIMSTEC and 
ASEAN, he explained.  The GOI is proceeding "incrementally," 
he said, courting only select countries, at first 
economically, and then politically. 
 
Recent Bilaterals: Korea, Thailand, Vietnam, Burma, Japan 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
3.  (C) In October, senior GOI officials visited and hosted 
officials from a number of East Asian countries.  South 
Korean President Roh Moo-hyun traveled to New Delhi October 
4-6, at the conclusion of which, the two countries signed a 
joint statement detailing cooperation in security, trade, and 
UNSC reform (Ref B).  Earning a second Bangkok stamp in his 
passport in less than six months, FM Natwar Singh stopped in 
Thailand on October 14, enroute to Hanoi.  While India has 
deepening economic ties with Thailand, such as the nascent 
PTA, there are also geostrategic components to India's 
interests in that country.  According to JNU Professor of 
South East Asian studies Manmohini Kaul, Thailand encouraged 
the GOI to engage Burma ahead of Than Shwe's Delhi trip. 
 
4.  (C) FM Singh's trip to Vietnam October 15-18 was less 
significant in strategic terms, Kaul continued, describing 
that relationship as more "historical."  The FM also made an 
effort to secure one more handshake in support of India's bid 
for permanent membership in the UNSC.  The IDSA's Mohanty 
noted that India sees Vietnam as a big market, but also as a 
"strategic balance between China and East Asia," which has 
resulted in "low level discomfort" in Beijing. 
 
5.  (C) Burmese military leader Than Shwe's October 24-29 
visit to India was important in the context of Burma's 
position as India's gateway to East Asia (Ref A).  Mohanty 
observed that "Look East" began with Burma.  India will also 
follow a "two track policy," there of not alienating the 
government for economic reasons, but will attempt to "create 
space for democracy."  Following the Japanese Foreign 
Minister's visit to New Delhi this summer, a Parliamentary 
delegation lead by Lok Sabha speaker Somnath Chatterjee 
traveled to Japan from October 31 to November 6 and met with 
Japanese officials including PM Junichiro Koizumi.  The 
Japanese Embassy called the visit an attempt to "resuscitate 
Parliamentary exchanges," supporting Mohanty's observation 
that India is trying to "renew ties with Japan in a big way," 
after the relationship flatlined following India's 1998 
nuclear tests. 
 
Multilateral Prong: ASEAN 
------------------------- 
 
6.  (C) The GOI's recent bilateral exchanges with East Asia 
complement its outreach to ASEAN as an institution.  Prior to 
Natwar Singh's departure for Bangkok and Hanoi, the MEA 
observed that Vietnam is part of ASEAN and India-Vietnam 
relations "have coincided with developments in India-ASEAN 
relations."  Looking ahead to November's ASEAN Plus One 
Summit in Laos, Kaul said that despite India's early 
reservations about the organization because of conflicts with 
its historical non-aligned orientation, India appreciates its 
ASEAN Plus One designation as recognition of New Delhi's 
importance on par with the ASEAN Plus Three countries (South 
Korea, Japan, and China).  Professor Kaul noted that the Plus 
One designation may be an attempt to stave off India, as few 
ASEAN members support India's fuller membership in the 
grouping. 
 
China vs. India: Heavyweight Matchup 
------------------------------------ 
 
7.  (C) Our interlocutors stress the growing importance of 
China in India's calculations with respect to East Asia. 
Professor Kaul observed that East Asian leaders encourage 
India's greater involvement as a "balance" to China's growing 
influence: "other countries know that only India can stand up 
to China."  The IDSA's Mohanty put it more simply: "the 
reason for "Look East" is China," even though it is a two-way 
exchange.  India, concerned about Chinese encroachment into 
neighboring countries, such as Burma, is eager to insert 
itself into East Asia.  While the dominant view here is of 
the two Asian giants butting heads strategically, Mohanty 
commented that CT interests could bring India and China 
together.  Asked why India has not been invited to join the 
Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a CT grouping of 
China's creating, Mohanty said India is still unsure of 
Beijing's intentions with the SCO. 
 
8.  (C) Professor Kaul noted that India was welcome in East 
Asia because New Delhi "has not given any indication of 
having big brotherly or hegemonistic intentions."  The 
difference between China and India in East Asia, she added, 
is that while "India makes announcements, China is striding 
ahead."  As an example she offered the much touted but as yet 
non-existent Thailand, Burma, India highway, and asked 
rhetorically, "who will travel on it?"  Mohanty observed that 
India will downplay the China factor in its "Look East" 
policy in favor of plugging economic initiatives. 
 
The UPA's Eastern Impetus 
------------------------- 
 
9.  (C) Professor Kaul observed that the GOI has a Look 
Easter in the PMO's office in the form of Media Adviser 
Sanjay Baru who is known to be a strong proponent of BIMSTEC 
(the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multisectoral Economic 
Cooperation).  She argued that Baru would help to reinforce 
the government's East Asia emphasis. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
10.  (C) Strengthening India's relations with East Asia 
presents New Delhi with an opportunity to assert its 
interests both economically and strategically, in a region 
where its motivations are not yet perceived as "big 
brotherly."  This contrasts with the sense among India's 
immediate South Asian neighbors that New Delhi's intentions 
are over-bearing, if not hegemonistic.  As India is already 
recognized as the big player in South Asia, strategic 
concerns vis-a-vis China are less salient.  PM Manmohan 
Singh's immediate thrust at the ASEAN Plus One Summit is 
likely to be economic, as India beefs up its regional 
profile, but this will also be an opportunity for the 
little-traveled PM to engage with a broader cross-section of 
East and Southeast Asian leaders as he continues to define 
the Congress vision for international relations. 
MULFORD