US embassy cable - 04BRUSSELS4730

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BRUSSELS 004730 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/RPM AND EUR/ERA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/03/2014 
TAGS: PREL, MOPS, EUN, USEU BRUSSELS 
SUBJECT: THE EUROPEAN DEFENSE AGENCY: CAPTAIN COLLINS GOES 
TO WASHINGTON 
 
Classified By: USEU Defense Policy officer, Mark Brunner for reasons 1. 
4 (b) and (d). 
 
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Summary 
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1. (C)  USEU Pol/Mil team met mid-October with British Navy 
Captain Paul Collins, currently seconded to the European 
Defense Agency Establishment Team (AET), for a readout on his 
recent Voluntary Visitor Program visit to the US.  Collins 
summarized US reaction to his trip as a "relief", and noted 
that US officials were surprised to learn the Agency 
currently employs just six personnel, though the Agency has 
plans to increase staff to 80 in 2005.  While the EDA is 
currently in start-up mode, it is already focusing on some 
early projects. The first will be tackling the EU's 
capabilities shortfalls by conducting "assessments" of 
several high cost European defense programs in order to 
illustrate for member states the "true cost" of the 
capability throughout the life of the program.  The 
assessment will also demonstrate to Defense Ministers how 
yearly maintenance of legacy programs drains scarce Euros 
from modest defense budgets.  These evaluations can be used 
by HiRep Solana to prod Defense Ministries into transforming 
their procurement processes and increasing investment on 
practical, usable capabilities.  Collins believes the EDA 
will succeed in jump-starting the EU capabilities engine 
where previous European capabilities initiatives have failed, 
because 2004 was a "watershed year" for ESDP, and Ministers 
are committed to transforming the EU Defense Processes.  End 
Summary. 
 
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Allaying US Concerns 
-------------------- 
 
2. (C)  In a debrief with USEU polmil officers, Captain Paul 
Collins summarized the reaction to his October trip to 
Washington as "relief" from many of his US counterparts.  He 
characterized many of his interlocutors as apprehensive that 
the EDA would bring about the creation of a "fortress 
Europe," and added that a number of his US contacts had 
imagined the EDA employed a few thousand personnel.  He also 
assured us that EDA Chief Nick Witney would schedule meetings 
with counterparts in the US once the Agency got "on its 
feet".  Collins compared the state of the EDA to an auto 
repair shop with car parts "lying about the floor", but also 
stressed that Agency hires are beginning to assemble the 
auto's frame, and will move on to the key components shortly. 
  Collins was supremely impressed with the Allied Command 
Transformation (ACT) organization and its views on 
transformation.  He sees the EDA and ACT missions as mutually 
compatible and noted, "EDA needs to weld itself to ACT". 
 
3.  (C)  Although the EDA has an ambitious agenda, it is 
still developing as an organization.  Despite the EDA's small 
staff, Collins warned against underestimating its influence 
in the long run, "People (in the US) need to game plan in 
their minds and to think about what they want to do with a 
stronger European Defense Market, " and added that it's not a 
question of if the EDA and EU will develop a more 
comprehensive and successful approach, but "when and how 
fast." 
 
4.  (C)  During his visit, a majority of the questions from 
US officials to Collins about European Defense plans focused 
on the future of ESDP and NATO.  Many asked about the added 
value of ESDP and why the EU is duplicating NATO.  Collins 
said there was a common mis-perception during his US tour 
that there were a "few thousand people over at EDA furiously 
buggering (working) away" on EU defense initiatives.  He 
explained that at the time of his trip, the EDA only had 2 
employees (now 6).  The EDA plans for a staff of 26 by the 
end of 2004, with a target of 80 for 2005.  The senior agency 
executives have been barraged with over 1,000 applications 
for 80 available slots. 
 
5. (C)  Collins also suggested that there is a dichotomy 
between US desire for the EU to be more effective militarily, 
and the US fear of the EU becoming "too strong." His 
perception is that the US wants to ensure the EU does not 
develop too strongly industrially and compete with the US. 
His follow-up question to us was a basic one, asking what the 
US really wants the EU to do.  As for the concern in some 
circles that the EDA would prompt the EU to develop into a 
"fortress Europe", he suggested -- without further 
elaboration -- that the real danger in transatlantic 
relations was a development of a "fortress US." 
----------- 
Why an EDA? 
----------- 
 
6.  (C)  Collins pointed to a "change in the mindset in 
Europe" with regard to defense.  He strongly asserted that 
Europeans are "sick" of NATO "telling people what to do". 
When asked by USEU Pol Mil how the EDA's approach would be 
more successful than NATO's, Collins argued that the EDA 
would be more effective by helping the nations achieve 
results instead of just identifying problems.  The EDA is not 
intended to be an armaments agency, although Collins 
acknowledged that such an evolution is possible in the 
future. 
 
7.  (C) Capability Assessments.  According to Collins, one of 
the primary tasks of the EDA will be to review national 
defense plans and assess capability for the EU.  EDA's view 
is that the majority of EU countries are still maintaining a 
cold war structure and are equipped correspondingly.  This 
cumbersome structure drains needed resources, and inhibits 
transformation.  The EDA's first assessment of capabilities 
will not likely occur prior to 2006.  Under this concept, the 
EDA may "cost out" the capability of a few large programs to 
illustrate the actual life-cycle cost of the entire program 
-- including training, maintenance, and additional expenses 
beyond the initial price tag.  Collins said they would likely 
target a few high profile programs to demonstrate how nations 
are inefficiently spending defense dollars maintaining older 
programs that deliver little in terms of real capability.  He 
believes these assessments will enable the EDA to prod 
Defense and Finance Ministers to better spend the EU's 
defense dollars and deliver real capabilities to the EU. 
----------------------- 
European Buy-in to ESDP 
----------------------- 
 
8. (C) Delivering the Goods.  This conclusion dovetails with 
Collins' view that European Security and Defense Policy 
(ESDP) had a "watershed" year in 2004, and that the political 
actors are prepared to transform the EU procurement process 
and rationalize defense industries.  Since a key component of 
the EDA's mission is to make actual capabilities available to 
the EU military structures, Collins feels that by exposing 
the full costs of these capabilities the Agency will be able 
to apply pressure for reallocation of defense expenditures. 
Some EU member states would also be urged to develop "niche 
capabilities" rather than spend resources on expensive 
capabilities that already exist within the EU.  Importantly, 
he also said the EDA has already engaged the European 
Commission on Research and Technology (R&T) matters, and 
noted this was the first time this liaison had occurred since 
the inception of ESDP in 1995. 
 
9.  (C)  Captain Collins maintained that during 2004, there 
was a significant political shift in thinking on ESDP, where 
ministers, having agreed in principle to ESDP previously, 
have now "signed their minds up to it (ESDP)".  He believed 
this was a subtle, but important distinction that will propel 
the EDA's agenda and eventually, ESDP.  He also noted that he 
is starting to see governments shifting resources toward 
ESDP, notably the Netherlands and Sweden. 
 
10. (C)  According to Collins, ESDP Chief Solana's ability to 
influence the EDA Steering board will be crucial.  Early on, 
one of Solana's goals will be to pin down the Steering Board 
Members (Composed of EU Ministers of Defense, HiRep Solana, 
EDA CEO Witney and the Chairman of the EU Military Committee) 
whose nations only contribute legacy hardware and out-dated 
systems to make the point "Thanks for your contributions (to 
ESDP), but they're still not capabilities".  Collins also 
asserted that the EDA will make progress where others have 
failed previously, because, since the EDA is independent, it 
can tell the steering board what it (steering board) doesn't 
want to hear.  Collins speculated that Solana and the EDA 
might have to spend a good part of their time speaking to 
national finance ministers. Collins also noted that 
information delivery to national Parliaments would be 
crucial, since they hold the national purse strings and help 
determine defense priorities. 
 
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Comment 
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11. (C)  Collins offered few specifics to support his grand 
predictions of a stronger, transformed, more coherent 
European Defense industry able to deliver real capabilities 
to the EU military structure.  Nor did he offer any insights 
why EDA would be more successful in addressing these issues 
than we have been through NATO mechanisms.  Given the 
fragmented and internally competitive European industry, the 
EDA may need more than the simple power of persuasion to 
effect meaningful changes.  Many EU military representatives 
have also voiced concern that, given the billions of dollars 
at stake in determining defense-related standards and 
priorities, the EDA may be driven more by political 
imperatives than by genuine military requirements.  The EU 
member states' Chiefs of Defense (CHODs) -- who set the 
requirements -- are said to be particularly apprehensive 
about their lack of input into the EDA steering board, since 
the Chairman of the EU Military Committee has a seat, but no 
vote.  Still, by exposing national defense plans to scrutiny 
-- especially by  Parliaments and the public -- EDA could 
achieve some success in improving European defense processes. 
 
12. (U) Mission would like to thank all those involved in 
preparing Collins' highly successful VolVis program.  We 
believe it provided timely input that will have an impact on 
future development of the EDA. 
 
SCHNABEL