US embassy cable - 04ANKARA6254

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 ANKARA 006254 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EUR/SE, EUR/PD, NEA/PD, DRL 
JCS PASS J-5/CDR S. WRIGHT 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, TU, Press Summaries 
SUBJECT: ANKARA MEDIA REACTION REPORT 
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 4, 2004 
 
 
THIS REPORT PRESENTS THE TURKISH PRESS SUMMARY UNDER THREE 
THEMES: 
 
HEADLINES 
BRIEFING 
EDITORIAL OPINION 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
HEADLINES 
 
MASS APPEAL 
Americans continue with Bush - Turkiye 
Kerry concedes - Aksam 
US votes for the General rather than the Philosopher - Sabah 
Ankara pleased: US-Turkey relations `on track' - Sabah 
Michael Moore and Hollywood lose - Turkiye 
Moore, depressed, goes home - Sabah 
Bush: A long, terrific night - Milliyet 
US Congress shifts to the right - Milliyet 
Tom Daschle loses - Hurriyet 
Arab analysts see four more years with Bush as `nightmare' - 
Milliyet 
Arafat congratulates Bush - Milliyet 
Bush victory spurs oil price rise - Sabah 
Stock markets hail Bush victory - Aksam 
 
OPINION MAKERS 
A clear victory for Bush - Zaman 
Kerry accepts defeat, world left to Bush - Cumhuriyet 
3rd Bush term in US - Yeni Safak 
Undisputed victory for Bush - Radikal 
Whites vote for Bush, blacks for Kerry - Yeni Safak 
Kerry first to congratulate Bush - Radikal 
Edelman: US-Turkey strategic relationship won't change - 
Cumhuriyet 
Edelman: Whoever the president, US' Turkey policy won't 
change - Zaman 
Republicans maintain majorities in Congress - Cumhuriyet 
Observers believe US election system worse than Serbia, 
Kazakhstan - Cumhuriyet 
11 states say `No' to gay marriage - Cumhuriyet 
Middle East, disillusioned, reacts to Bush victory - Zaman 
 
 
BRIEFING 
 
US Election 2004:  Turkish papers agree that Ankara had 
preferred continuing with President Bush to `starting over' 
with John Kerry, and therefore welcomed Bush's reelection. 
Diplomatic sources told the Turkish press that Kerry's 
political `ambiguity,' particularly on Iraq, had been a 
source of concern for Ankara.  The Bush Administration 
already knows Turkish sensitivities with regard to Iraq's 
territorial integrity and the PKK issue, they said, 
expecting the continuation of close cooperation between 
Washington and Ankara.  PM Erdogan reportedly said in the 
early hours of the US vote count that no matter who won, 
good ties with the US would continue.  Dailies expect Bush 
to step up pressure in an effort to halt attempts to change 
the demographic balance in northern Iraq, and to initiate US 
military action against the PKK presence in the region.  All 
papers seem certain that the US will continue to support 
Turkey's EU aspirations.  Dailies also see Ankara as 
prepared to become an active player in the US Broader Middle 
East initiative in 2005.  Unlike Kerry, Bush is inclined to 
leave the Armenian `genocide' allegations to historians, 
Turkish papers speculate.  Turkey's ruling and opposition 
party leaders voiced hope that Bush's re-election will bring 
stability to Turkey's neighborhood. 
 
Ambassador Edelman on the Election outcome:  Evaluating the 
US Election outcome at the Turkish American Association in 
Ankara, US Ambassador Eric Edelman said the  American vote 
would not bring drastic changes to the strategic 
relationship between Washington and Ankara.  `There has been 
no change in the US view of Turkey over the last nine US 
administrations spanning 40 years,' he underlined.  Speaking 
after a panel discussion held on US the Election results, 
Edelman stressed that both Republicans and Democrats support 
Turkey's EU drive.  He added that the Armenian `genocide' 
issue is raised in every US presidential campaign, but when 
the president-elect takes office, the issue tends to be 
pushed from the agenda. 
 
TGS Deputy Chief on Kirkuk:  The Turkish Deputy Chief of 
Staff, General Ilker Basbug, denied at a press conference on 
Tuesday press reports claiming that Turkey has reached an 
agreement with the US on a Turkish military intervention in 
Kirkuk.  He added that the issue had not been raised in 
discussions between Turkish and US officials.  Basbug said 
that Turkey wanted Iraqi energy resources to be used equally 
by all peoples in Iraq.  Kirkuk has a particular 
significance in that it contains 12 percent of all Iraqi 
oil, he noted.  Any wrong decision might incite a civil war 
in Iraq, General Basbug said, in an assessment he claims was 
shared by US officials and NATO intelligence sources.  A 
civil war in neighboring Iraq will affect Turkey, Basbug 
said, emphasizing that Kirkuk should be granted a special 
status.  Recalling speculative press reports about plans for 
a Turkish military operation, Basbug said it was the Turkish 
military's duty to plan against unfavorable developments. 
Meanwhile, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) Ankara 
representation denied on Wednesday claims that the Kurds are 
attempting to change the demography in Kirkuk.  In addition 
to Kurds, the PUK said, Turkmen and Assyrians also want to 
return to Kirkuk.  The statement noted that thousands of non- 
Arabs had been kicked out of the area during the regime of 
Saddam Hussein.  Kirkuk is an Iraqi city, but it is 
historically Kurdish, the PUK stressed.  The statement 
warned neighboring countries against interfering in Iraqi 
domestic affairs. 
 
Athens to `toughen' defense policy:  "Cumhuriyet" cites the 
Greek daily "To Vima" as claiming that top Greek government 
and military officials have decided to `strain' ties with 
Turkey until the European Union summit in December at which 
EU leaders are to decide whether and when to open accession 
talks with Turkey.  The new doctrine will bring strong Greek 
retaliation for alleged violations by the Turkish military 
of Greek airspace and territorial waters.  Athens is to re- 
adopt the strong retaliation policy of former Greek defense 
minister Yerasimos Arsenis, "To Vima" reported, according to 
"Cumhuriyet."  Arsenis is known to have shaped a joint 
defense doctrine with the Greek Cypriots.  The Greek 
government will justify such retaliation on the basis of its 
joint defense agreement with Nicosia.  While supporting 
Turkey's EU drive, the Greek government will also take firm 
steps to ensure that the EU holds Turkey responsible for 
meeting its commitments to the European bloc.  Meanwhile, 
the Turkish General Staff denied on Tuesday allegations by 
Athens that Turkish military planes and vessels are 
systematically violating Greek airspace and territorial 
waters in the Aegean Sea. 
 
Zana asks for a special EU committee for Turkey's Kurds:  At 
a meeting with Germany's Greens Party leader Claudia Roth on 
Tuesday, former Kurdish lawmaker Leyla Zana urged the EU 
Commission to set up a working committee to explore a 
solution to the Kurdish problem in a way that would respect 
the sensitivities of the Turkish and Kurdish communities. 
Responding to a question, Zana said the PKK's imprisoned 
leader Abdullah Ocalan backed Turkey's EU aspirations.  On 
Wednesday, Roth and her delegation paid a visit to the 
Armenian Patriarchate in Istanbul, and later met with 
Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomeus I.  Roth said they had 
come to inspect some problem areas in the implementation of 
EU reforms in Turkey.  Roth emphasized ongoing problems in 
the treatment of minorities, but said the Greens are here to 
seek ways to support Turkey's democratization process. 
 
EDITORIAL OPINION: US Elections 
 
"Coming Next: Bush vs. Bin Laden" 
Can Dundar argued in the mass appeal "Milliyet" (11/4): "The 
reelection of George Bush deepens the conflict between 
American policy preferences and global interests.  The whole 
world has to cope with a reality now: Who is going to stop 
plans for a new Middle East and an attack against Iran?  The 
US Democrats do not provide any hope, because they have 
failed even to say `no' to the Iraq war. . US voters have 
approved Bush's war-mongering policy by reelecting him. 
This will only help radical Islam to grow.  This is like a 
vicious circle that feeds on itself.  The 9/11 attack is 
helping the American war industry to grow, and the 
occupation of Iraq is helping radical Islam to grow.  The 
threats from Bin Laden gave a boost to the Bush campaign. 
Fearful of terrorism, Americans have given the terrorists a 
precous gift - an election victory to George Bush." 
 
"The Second Bush Era and Turkey" 
Cengiz Candar commented in the conservative "Tercuman 
(Dunden Bugune) (11/4): "The argument about whether the 
second Bush administration will serve Turkey's interest is 
pointless.  The Turkish-American bilateral relationship will 
remain the same as it has been, which means a good working 
relationship between two allies.  However, the future course 
of the relationship could be tested by possible differences 
based on developments on Iraq." 
 
"A Black Day for the World" 
Ali Bayramoglu wrote in the Islamist-opinion maker "Yeni 
Safak" (11/4): "The current international system is 
dysfunctional, and both the UN and NATO are ineffective. 
Only a change in American security policy can return these 
international institutions to health.  There is no sign of 
hope on this score for the next four years.   George Bush 
not only won an election victory, but has managed to get the 
approval of the American people to legitimize his world 
order -- i.e., the `Pax Americana.'  This is a black day for 
the history of the world." 
 
"Meaning of Election Support for Bush" 
Fehmi Koru noted in the Islamist-opinion maker "Yeni Safak" 
(11/4): "The reelection of George Bush does not seem to be 
good news for the world.  It is possible that the new Bush 
administration will interpret the election victory as an 
endorsement its flawed policies.  If that is the case, there 
will be no trace of common sense in Washington during the 
next term. . We can only hope that since President Bush is 
smart enough to have himself reelected, he can be smart 
enough to change and begin acting with common sense." 
 
"A Message for the Bad Guys: Bush for 4 more years" 
Asli Aydintasbas commented in the mass appeal "Sabah" 
(11/4): "The American countryside and its conservative 
communities see the current situation, from Iraq to 
Afghanistan, as a war of civilizations between good and 
evil.  They believe the US will not exist unless this war is 
won.  This is the emotional psychology that helped to 
reelect President Bush.  This emotion stems from the 9/11 
attacks. . Under the sway of this psychology, the American 
voters preferred a warrior instead of a philosopher." 
 
"Risks and Hopes" 
Gungor Mengi commented in the mass appeal "Vatan" (11/4): 
"If Kerry had won the election, as Graham Fuller had said, 
his administration may have been less insistent and more 
cooperative in the international arena.  However, even in 
that case the US policy to spread its hegemony would 
continue -- only the trappings would have changed.  The most 
important issue now is how President Bush will use his 
opportunity.  In the past, the second and final terms of US 
presidents have been used to create positive change and 
burnish the image of the incumbent.  The fact is that Bush 
was the alternative for Turkey that carried less risk. 
While he continues to support Turkey's EU ambitions, will he 
be successful in pulling the world out of swamp in Iraq? 
Will he strongly support a resolution to the Palestine- 
Israel issue to eliminate the injustice there?  To answer 
these questions, we have to wait for Bush to establish his 
new administration and name his top advisors." 
 
"The US Election Result Must Have Pleased Bin Laden" 
Mehmet Ali Birand opined in the mass appeal "Posta" (11/4): 
"A new four year term begins with enormous difficulties.  It 
is very unlikely that Bush will change his policies.  The 
general picture is not very good.  The world should be ready 
to witness the same kinds of bloody incidents in Iraq and 
Palestine.  Those most pleased by the election results will 
be fundamentalists such as Bin-Laden and others who fight 
against Western values." 
 
"Bush's Relations With Turkey Will be More Sincere" 
Hakan Celik commented in the mass appeal "Posta" (11/4): 
"In this new four year period, Bush will begin a new era 
with Turkey.  President Bush's primary aim will be to 
implement his plan to bridge the divide with Islamic 
countries, including Turkey.  He will also seek more 
cooperation in Iraq." 
 
"Electing A President" 
Yilmaz Oztuna wrote in the conservative-mass appeal 
"Turkiye" (11/4):  "President Bush's victory came as good 
news for the Republicans, as they also gained additional 
seats in the Congress.  Therefore, during his second term 
Bush will work more comfortably with a Republican Congress. 
Even if Kerry had been elected, American policy in Iraq 
would not have changed. It will be interesting to watch US 
policy toward Syria and Iran in this second Bush 
Administration, when President Bush will be stronger 
politically than before." 
 
EDELMAN