US embassy cable - 04JERUSALEM4203

C O N F I D E N T I A L  JERUSALEM 004203 
 
 
NEA FOR BURNS/SATTERFIELD, NSC FOR ABRAMS/DANIN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/04/2014 
TAGS: PREL, KWBG, PGOV, KPAL, IS 
SUBJECT: PALESTINIAN LEADERSHIP WORRIED AS ARAFAT'S 
CONDITION WORSENS 
 
Classified By: Consul General David D. Pearce.  Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (C) Summary:  Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasir 
Arafat's health deteriorated suddenly the evening of November 
3, according to ConGen sources in Ramallah, who said his 
doctors in Paris had moved him to an intensive care unit 
after he began vomiting and experiencing fatigue and fever. 
Negotiations Affairs Minister Sa'eb Erekat told DPO November 
4 that his condition had stabilized overnight, and that his 
medical team would make an announcement regarding his health 
later in the day.  Prime Minister Abu Ala'a's chief of staff, 
Hasan Abu Libdah, told the Consul General that Arafat's 
condition was serious and that information regarding his 
health was being closely held.  The leadership of the PLO and 
Fatah are planning to meet November 4 to discuss the 
situation.  End summary. 
 
Sudden Setback 
-------------- 
 
2. (C) Arafat's health deteriorated suddenly November 3. 
According to a source in the Muqatta'a who had been in 
contact with Arafat's entourage in Paris, Arafat suddenly 
began vomiting and developed a fever and increased fatigue, 
alarming his doctors, who moved him to an intensive care unit 
(ICU).  National Security Adviser Jibril Rajub told DPO 
November 3 that he had spoken to Arafat's wife, Suha, and PLO 
UN rep Nasser al-Kidwah, who told him Arafat's condition was 
stable.  Local Palestinian media reported November 4 that PLO 
rep to Paris Leyla Shahid confirmed that Arafat's condition 
had worsened and that he had been placed in the ICU.  She 
said his medical team would make an announcement regarding 
the Chairman's health November 4 in the afternoon (Note: 
There was to have been an announcement November 3, but it 
never took place.  Note.) 
 
Alarm Bells Go Off 
------------------ 
 
3. (C) Arafat's worsening condition fueled speculation among 
some PA officials that he was about to die, perhaps of 
poisoning.  Sa'eb Erekat, repeating information he had 
already passed directly in Washington, told DPO at around 1 
am November 4 that the PLO's representative to the UN, Nasser 
al-Kidwah, had phoned him urgently from Paris saying that 
Arafat had been poisoned by the GOI and insisting that Erekat 
enlist Washington's support for obtaining the antidote from 
the GOI (Comment:  Al-Kidwah evidently phoned Erekat with 
this alarming report before Arafat's condition improved.  End 
comment).  Rajub called DPO at 2:30 am to report that 
Arafat's condition was stable and that press reports of a 
deterioration in Arafat's health had been sourced back to a 
Fatah Central Committee member who had leaked the earlier, 
dire reports to Reuters. 
 
4. (C) In a subsequent conversation with DPO on November 4, 
Erekat said that he had spoken to Arafat's doctors, who 
informed him that the Chairman's condition had stabilized and 
he had stopped vomiting, that he remained in the ICU, and 
that his vomiting attack was similar to those he had suffered 
in Ramallah.  Erekat assessed Arafat's health at "50 - 50." 
Prime Minister Abu Ala'a's chief of staff, Hasan Abu Libdah, 
told the Consul General November 4 that Arafat's condition 
was serious, and that there was "some panic" among the 
leadership.  He said that information regarding Arafat's 
health was being closely held, and that Abu Ala'a was very 
worried and would be participating in meetings of the 
leadership later in the day to discuss the situation. 
 
5. (C) A source in ex-PM Abu Mazen's office said Abu Mazen 
would chair a meeting of the PLO Executive Committee and the 
Fatah Central Committee November 4.  (Note:  As secretary 
general of the PLO, Abu Mazen is next in line after Arafat; 
he is also the ranking member of Fatah, in the absence of 
Tunis-based Faruq al-Qaddumi.  Abu Mazen reportedly canceled 
plans to fly from the UAE, where he attended Shaykh Zayyid's 
funeral, to Paris, after receiving news that Arafat's 
condition had stabilized.  End note.) 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
6. (C) The sudden deterioration in Arafat's health November 3 
has alarmed Palestinian officialdom in Ramallah, some of whom 
had been optimistically predicting his recovery and eventual 
return in time for the end-of-Ramadan feast in mid-November. 
In his conversation with the CG this morning, PM Abu Ala'a's 
chief of staff Abu Libdah, who is not prone to exaggeration 
or melodrama, sounded very concerned about Arafat's 
prognosis, implying that the leadership in meetings today 
might be planning for his succession.  The continuing lack of 
information about the cause of Arafat's illness, coupled with 
reports of his continuing vomiting and fever attacks, has 
fueled wild speculation that he may have been poisoned by 
Israel, raising tensions among his staff in the Muqatta'a, 
who would naturally fall under suspicion. 
 
PEARCE