US embassy cable - 04TAIPEI3488

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 003488 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/RSP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - 
ROBERT PALLADINO 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, KPAO, TW, Cross Strait Politics, Foreign Policy 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: U.S. ELECTIONS AND U.S. 
POLICY, SECRETARY POWELL'S REMARKS IN BEIJING 
 
 
1. U.S. Elections and U.S. Policy 
 
A) "Bush Gets Re-elected with a Narrow Margin, But the 
Price He Pays Is the United States' Unity and 
Democratic Image" 
 
The conservative, pro-unification "United Daily News" 
commented in an editorial (11/4): 
 
"Over the past four years, [U.S. President George W.] 
Bush has lost the United States' glory and the world's 
respect for [his country].  Domestically, it is even 
more difficult to calculate what Bush has lost for his 
country.  The campaign strategy that Bush adopted this 
time was to renounce the middle road that the United 
States used to pursue.  As a result, he has incited 
voters that believe in different values to confront 
each other and left the society no room for tolerance. 
That is why some people described this U.S. election as 
a `domestic war.'  The Bush administration's use of a 
drastic manipulative approach in an attempt to win the 
majority of votes also means that he has given up the 
hope to win the hearts of the other half of American 
voters.  Such an unorthodox approach shows that Bush 
lacks the open-minded bearing and vision that a state 
leader requires.  Even though he succeeded by 
manipulating the anti-terrorism issue and employing a 
negative campaign strategy against his opponent, he 
could hardly convince his rival and the rival's 
supporters. . 
 
"In fact, Bush's re-election may not necessarily 
benefit Taiwan's political reality.  Let's not forget 
the strong-worded statements made by U.S. Secretary of 
State Colin Powell during his trip to East Asia just a 
few days before the general elections.  Powell's 
remarks, including his call for cross-Strait dialogue 
and [the United States'] lack of support for Taiwan 
independence, should be the new bottom line of the Bush 
administration.  It is really difficult to imagine that 
Bush, if re-elected, will continue to insist on facing 
the world with his `unilateralism.'  If Bush has even 
the slightest intention to heal the hurt, his cross- 
Strait policy will not possibly continue to stay 
severe.  If so, then the `Powell framework' will then 
likely become a blueprint for Bush to deal with the 
cross-Strait situation in the future. ." 
 
B) "A Divided United States Is Bush's Biggest Challenge 
after He Is Re-elected" 
 
The centrist, pro-status quo "China Times" observed in 
an editorial (11/4): 
 
". Over the past three years, the political division 
and the confrontations in public views created by Bush 
in the United States have been more serious than those 
during the Vietnam War.  This presidential campaign has 
also further ignited the different sentiments of 
`support for Bush' and `opposition to Bush.' . 
 
"We want to say objectively that even though Bush has 
won a majority of the votes, it is because [Senator 
John] Kerry had the cardinal principles in mind and 
took the overall situation and the unity of the United 
States into account so that the election could end 
smoothly.  As a re-elected president, Bush must observe 
and understand the expectations of [U.S.] society and 
the international community, serving as a `unifier,' 
and seeking to win the support of the other half of 
American voters who did not vote for him during this 
election.  This is where his heavenly mandate and 
challenge lies." 
 
C) "Bush's Re-election and Prospects for U.S.-Taiwan 
Relations" 
 
Washington correspondent James Wang said in the 
"Washington Reviews" column of the pro-independence 
"Taiwan Daily" (11/4): 
 
". We anticipate that the Bush administration will 
continue putting emphasis on Taiwan's security issues. 
Taiwan's strategic status weighs heavily in the Bush 
administration's strategic perception, and the United 
States will not overlook China's threats against 
Taiwan. 
 
"We also anticipate that the Bush administration will 
maintain an impartial attitude when urging Taiwan and 
China to engage in a dialogue to alleviate cross-Strait 
tensions, but it will not force Taiwan to compromise 
and accept China's position. . 
 
"The general position and wishes of the Taiwan people 
are that we insist that Taiwan is an independent 
sovereign state and we hope that the United States 
could accommodate Taiwan's democratic evolvement and 
recognize Taiwan as a sovereign nation.  The United 
States, as a model for democracy, should clearly 
understand [the Taiwan people's position]. 
 
D) "Bush's Re-election Is the General Trend" 
 
Washington correspondent Norman Fu said in the 
"Washington Outlook" column of the centrist, pro-status 
quo "China Times" (11/4): 
 
"In general, Bush's re-election might not necessarily 
be favorable for the entire world situation.  Bin 
Laden's terrorism and chaos in Iraq will continue and 
will grow more severe.  Chances are smaller that the 
United States and EU nations will reconcile.  The 
conservative powers inside the United States will 
become consolidated all the more and confrontations 
between the Republicans and Democrats will grow 
stronger.  Bush's `unilateralist' superpower diplomacy 
will likely move toward the direction in that `those 
who submit will thrive and those who resist shall meet 
ruin.'  For Taiwan, which needs the United States' help 
for almost everything, how can it dare to offend the 
United States by doing whatever it wants?" 
 
E) "US, Taiwan Are Democratic Partners" 
 
The pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" 
editorialized (11/4): 
 
". As an ally of the US., Taiwan is surely interested 
in the re-election of Bush.  We are not concerned about 
the possibility of the Bush administration shifting its 
Taiwan policy.  After all, the US is already a mature 
democracy.  Taiwan-US relations have steadily developed 
on the basis on a long-term friendship.  Although there 
were some ups and downs in the past, Taiwan-US 
relations are unlikely to alter unless a drastic change 
takes place across the Taiwan Strait. 
 
"We are concerned about the election because Taiwan-US 
relations are complex.  We hope that post-election 
legal squabbling will not damage the image of US 
democracy.  An incident-free outcome will help Taiwan 
and the US continue to boost their bilateral exchanges. 
Taipei needs to get on with talking to Washington about 
the proposed arms procurement plan, as well as our 
efforts to enter the World Health Organization and 
other international bodies. ." 
 
F) "U.S. Needs Reform, Lien Chan Must Go" 
 
The pro-independence, English-language "Taiwan News" 
said in an editorial (11/4): 
 
". Four more years of George W. Bush are likely to be 
four more years of a festering morass in Iraq, 
explosive tensions in the Middle East and a `head in 
the sand' (or rather, prayer book) attitude to efforts 
by the world community to resolve critical global ills 
through multilateral efforts from the Kyoto Protocol on 
global warming to the International Criminal Court. 
 
"Global cooperation may well be affected by the clash 
between a highly conservative Republican regime in the 
U.S. with the surfacing trend for `center-left' 
governments in Europe, Latin American [sic] and much of 
Asia. 
 
"The continuation of a Republican administration may 
also not be as positive for Taiwan as some pundits seem 
to expect. 
 
"The continuity of leadership in the U.S. and Taiwan 
along with the consolidation of the power of People's 
Republic of China State Chairman Hu Jintao may boost 
prospects for dialogue as Washington is likely to take 
a proactive role in brokering such talks at the same 
time as supplying Taiwan with defensive weaponry. 
 
"But the flip side will include pressure on Taiwan's 
Democratic Progressive Party government and the 
Taiwanese people to refrain from any action that might 
`provoke' Beijing, including affirming our sovereignty 
or revamping our Constitution. 
"Demands for more assistance in campaigns against 
`terrorism' and the Iraqi quagmire are also likely to 
be voiced by Washington in step with the declining 
degree of tolerance by other members of the world 
community for the Bushian `crusades.' 
 
"Gaps in priorities are likely to emerge between the 
U.S. `faith-based' government and the DPP government, 
which is trying to traverse a `Taiwan road' of 
democracy, human rights, and sustainability. ." 
 
G) "The U.S. Won't Tolerate Taiwan Independence" 
 
The conservative, pro-unification, English-language 
"China Post" noted in an editorial (11/4): 
 
". It is true that the Republicans are traditionally 
more supportive of Taiwan.  But this hardly justifies 
the conclusion that, when the U.S. president is a 
member of the Grand Old Party, Taiwan will be safer 
from a mainland Chinese attack. 
 
"Recently U.S. Secret [sic] of State Colin Powell, 
during a visit to Asia, said Taiwan does not enjoy 
sovereignty as a nation, and stated that 
`reunification' with mainland China must be achieved by 
peaceful means.  The remarks have dealt the Taiwan 
independence movement a crushing blow.  Those who 
pursue Taiwan independence must not have the 
misconception that Taiwan can always count on America 
to come to its aid in the face of an attack from 
mainland China.  Should the Taipei government go too 
far in its attempt to make the island an independent 
state, the U.S. will certainly intervene, whoever its 
president is." 
 
2. Secretary Powell's Remarks in Beijing 
 
Hsu Yung-ming, assistant research fellow at the 
Academia Sinica, said in the pro-independence, English- 
language "Taipei Times" (11/4): 
 
". Powell's words have completely changed the myth 
about Taiwan's democratic development.  We finally 
understand that enjoying democracy does not equal 
enjoying sovereignty as a nation, and supporting Taiwan 
to boost democracy is not supporting the Taiwanese 
people to become their own masters.  Thus, the way 
Washington treats Taipei is no better than the way 
Beijing treats Hong Kong. . 
 
"The Taiwanese people think that they are becoming 
their own masters when striving for democracy.  But 
from a US perspective, it is just an improvement of 
human welfare.  The Taiwanese people think that they 
are deepening democracy and resolving a political 
deadlock through the push for referendums.  But from a 
US perspective, it is a push for Taiwan independence. 
Obviously, under this US patriarchy, Washington's views 
Taipei as a democratic offspring that needs its special 
care.  But the former also locks the latter in a 
birdcage, so that it will not fly away and cause 
trouble. 
 
"Viewed from this perspective, perhaps it is better for 
Taiwan and China to resume their talks.  At least, 
Taiwan will have a chance to speak for itself without 
US pressure.  It must take the initiative, rather than 
depending on the US forever.  The Democratic 
Progressive Party government should make the public 
aware of the gap between Taiwan's democracy and 
sovereignty, and both the blue and green camps should 
clarify their stances on the issue.  Apart from the 
Taiwanese people's pro-unification and pro-independence 
sentiments, the key lies in the fact that there is no 
longer a gray area.  Taiwan cannot now enjoy both 
democracy and sovereignty - just democracy without 
sovereignty. ." 
 
PAAL