US embassy cable - 04DJIBOUTI1405

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DJIBOUTI 001405 
 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON, PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/03/2014 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, MOPS, ET, KE, NI, DJ, SO 
SUBJECT: MORE ON OBASANJO VISIT TO DJIBOUTI: SOMALIA AT 
FOREFRONT OF TALKS 
 
REF: DJIBOUTI 1390 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Marguerita D. Ragsdale. 
For reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (C) Ambassador met with Minister of Cooperation Mahamoud 
Ali Youssouf 3 November, at her request, to address several 
items.  Among them was a discussion on the nature of Nigerian 
President Olesugun Obasanjo's visit to Djibouti.  Youssouf 
confirmed reports in the local press (see reftel) that the 
visit was merely a refueling stopover for Obasanjo's aircraft 
and that discussion had focused primarily on Somalia.  He 
clarified that originally the arrangement was for Guelleh to 
meet Obasanjo in the VIP lounge at the airport, but Guelleh 
insisted that the two heads of state have discussions at his 
private residence.  Youssouf said that it was Guelleh's 
desire to discuss with Obasanjo details of the Darfur 
mediation, African Union peacekeepers to Somalia and 
prospects for international aid to Somalia.  These were 
relevant topics in the context of Obasanjo's AU role and the 
possible membership of Nigeria in the U.N. Security Council. 
He commented that the meeting between the two presidents had 
lasted less than one hour. 
 
2. (C) In response to Ambassador's question on whether 
Obasanjo had expressed his views on the likelihood of new 
Somalian President Abdillahi Yusuf being able to bring 
together the different factions, Youssouf commented only on 
the perspective of the Djiboutian government. He stated that 
President Guelleh thinks it will be very, very difficult for 
Yusuf to accomplish this task.  There are three big issues 
impeding Yusuf's success, he continued. First, he is known as 
a former military person, tough and inflexible. Second, he 
has been personally involved in the overall "mess" in 
Somalia.  Third, he is facing very serious problems with 
Somaliland, as evident by recent fighting between Puntland 
and Somalia that has claimed over 100 lives.  However, 
Youssouf commented, "we think, given the situation and 
support of the international community, he seems to be moving 
in the right direction." 
 
3. (C) Youssouf then said the main question for Abdillahi 
Yusuf's new government was how to install itself in 
Mogadishu.  He said in order to do this Yusuf will need to 
make concessions to the Hawiye and Abgal, the clans that 
occupy the area around Mogadishu. Youssouf thought that this 
might mean appointment of an Abgal Prime Minister.  After 
concessions to the Hawiye and Abgal, Yusuf should then move 
towards pacifying the other factions, Youssouf said. 
However, he continued, "this will be an impossible mission 
without African Union military support." Only after the 
factions were pacified will Yusuf be able to begin 
disarmament. 
 
4. (C) Ambassador commented that the process Youssouf 
described seemed a good one, but the question remains: Is 
Yusuf the one able to do it?  Youssouf made the comment that 
Djibouti was not initially behind Abdillahi Yusuf's candidacy 
but will support him because Djibouti needs peace and 
stability in Somalia. He continued that Somaliland's stance 
of non-cooperation was predictable because of the negative 
history between Yusuf and Somaliland. Yusuf was one of the 
officers in the army who moved to crush Somaliland resistance 
under Siad Barre.  Yet it is believed that Yusuf is the one 
needed to lead because he will be strong enough and have guts 
enough to handle a crisis decisively. Indeed, Youssouf 
commented, it is believed that Yusuf would be able 
successfully to crush any challenge to the new regime's 
authority. 
 
5. (C) Youssouf said the Government of Djibouti believes that 
Yusuf has already shown a willingness to make concessions. 
Yusuf had told the transitional parliament that it could 
select a Prime Minister either within or outside of 
parliament, as their choice.  He commented that Yusuf's main 
ambition was merely to come to office as President and once 
in office, be more flexible. He said Yusuf had made public 
plans to travel to Brussels, Cairo and New York. 
 
6. (C) Ambassador commented that the IGAD Executive Secretary 
preferred that Yusuf wait on planned visits to Brussels, 
Cairo and New York until he has a full government in place. 
Youssouf agreed that this was a wise course and said Yusuf, 
who Youssouf believed was now in Kenya, should have thought 
more thoroughly before going even to Ethiopia. He also stated 
that perhaps Yusuf was going quickly to visit international 
entities in order to gain legitimacy and financial support 
through their recognition of his status. 
RAGSDALE