US embassy cable - 04BRUSSELS4702

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BRUSSELS 004702 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, EAID, IR, IZ, EUN, USEU BRUSSELS 
SUBJECT: EU FMS AT NOV. 2 GAERC AGREE SUPPORT 
MEASURES FOR IRAQ, KEEP PRESSURE ON SUDAN 
 
REF: (A) USEU BRUSSELS 4665; (B) COPENHAGEN 1920 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
1. (SBU) EU FMs on November 2 agreed a package of 
measures to support Iraq ahead of a November 5 visit 
by PM Allawi.  They confirmed EU financial support 
for the electoral process and decided to send an 
expert team by the end of November "to start 
planning" with the Iraqi authorities "for a possible 
integrated police, rule of law and civilian 
administration mission" that would only deploy in- 
country after the January elections.  FMs noted the 
"deteriorating" security situation in Darfur and 
reiterated that the EU "does not exclude the use of 
sanctions."  Solana also presented his strategy for 
a relaunch of the Middle East road map and continued 
reform of the PA.  Iran was not on the GAERC agenda 
(it will be discussed by EU FMs on November 4), but 
Solana said discussions were "progressively more 
constructive" and the EU "has not lost hope." END 
SUMMARY. 
 
2. (SBU) EU Foreign Ministers met in a General 
Affairs and External Relations Council session 
primarily devoted to preparing the November 4-5 
European Council (EU Summit).  A Council source who 
attended almost all of the event said it was a "very 
low-key" affair.  Full Conclusions from the GAERC 
are available on the consilium.eu.int website. 
Despite REF B indications, China was not raised in 
the formal GAERC session. 
 
IRAQ 
---- 
 
3. (SBU) The Conclusions are much as we anticipated 
(REF A), with as forward leaning a text as the 
Member States could agree.  The EU is trying to do 
all it can to demonstrate its engagement on Iraq, 
particularly in advance of PM Allawi's visit the end 
of this week to the European Council.  The only real 
point at issue was a suggestion by France, which was 
not accepted, to tone down the warmth of the 
language about Allawi, after his critical comments 
over the weekend.  A further declaration in addition 
to today's Conclusions will be issued at the Summit, 
but a Council source told us it will be "a very 
similar package, as we won't have much more to say 
then".  Some Member States had argued the EU should 
have held all the Iraq language for the Summit.  Key 
points from the Iraq Conclusions are: 
 
- EU "could usefully contribute" an "integrated 
police, rule of law and civilian administration 
mission."  "While judging that activities outside 
Iraq with a presence of liaison elements in Iraq 
would be feasible at this point in time, the 
Council agreed that with regard to a mission 
inside Iraq all security concerns need to be 
appropriately addressed before any decision by the 
Council could be taken."  Much later in the text, 
the GAERC says an "expert team" should go by the 
end of November to start planning with the Iraqi 
authorities for this mission, "which is expected 
to start after the January 2005 elections". 
(NOTE:  Two sources involved in the GAERC could 
not interpret this text for us, on whether 
activities outside Iraq could begin earlier, while 
any in-country mission would have to be after the 
elections.  One contact said the Conclusions on 
Iraq had been "subject to much to'ing and fro'ing 
last week".  Another contact said the GAERC had to 
be "intentionally vague" about the timing of any 
mission in this text.  This language does not/not 
necessarily mean the EU would begin such an 
integrated mission now, and then consider later 
moving it in-country.  It appears a further 
decision is needed to green light any mission 
beyond the expert team. END NOTE) 
 
- GAERC agreed to give Iraq "the perspective of an 
agreement...to promote political and trade 
cooperation" and asked the Commission to start on 
assistance programs "aimed at developing the 
conditions for such an agreement".  GAERC invited 
Commission to "enhance as appropriate and with due 
regard to security its presence in Baghdad." 
 
- Affirmed ?30 million in Community assistance to 
the elections cluster of IRFFI, as well as 
intention to provide experts and training. 
- Reaffirms that Member States "are ready to 
contribute substantially to the financing of the 
middle ring of the UN Protection Force" and notes 
the Commission is "still discussing with the UN a 
possible financial contribution of the Community 
to the inner ring." 
 
- Noted Iraq is an EU GSP beneficiary and said "as 
soon as conditions allow", the Commission should 
work with the Iraqi administration to get the 
system operating.  GAERC also "agreed to continue 
efforts of the Member States to exchange views on 
debt." 
 
SUDAN 
----- 
 
4. (SBU) GAERC issued very familiar language with 
nothing that strikes us as particularly new.  Key 
points: 
 
- GAERC "notes with grave concern that the security 
situation in parts of Darfur has been 
deteriorating in the last weeks."  Repeats that 
the EU "does not exclude the use of sanctions." 
 
- EU details its readiness to support the African 
Union's monitoring mission (AMIS), with Council- 
level agreement on ?80 million from the Africa 
Peace Facility, as well as three references to the 
EU's interest in providing the AU advice or 
expertise, "if requested." 
 
MEPP 
---- 
 
5. (SBU) High Rep Solana presented his ideas on an 
"action plan" for implementation of the road map, as 
well as some thoughts on European parameters for 
eventual talks on final status.  A paper outlining 
these ideas was circulated to EU FMs last Friday. 
Our contact said EU envoy Marc Otte and A/S Burns 
had talked over the weekend, so the USG should 
already have a very clear idea of Solana's approach. 
The Solana paper would probably be circulated to 
Quartet partners soon. 
 
IRAN 
---- 
 
6. (SBU) Iran was dropped from the agenda for this 
GAERC.  It will be taken up at the EU FMs' dinner on 
Nov. 4, with possible Summit Conclusions on Nov. 5. 
In response to a question at the press conference, 
Solana said EU-Iran contacts were on-going, with the 
discussions "progressively more constructive", but 
if they were to be raised to the highest level, then 
a "breakthrough" was still needed.  "We have not 
lost hope," he added.  In a separate press 
conference, French FM Barnier said the EU was 
looking for a "durable, lasting commitment" by Iran 
in exchange for a "true, interesting contract" from 
the EU. 
 
RUSSIA 
------ 
 
7. (SBU) In general, EU FMs agreed the EU should 
hold a firm line regarding what it would offer for 
the Nov. 11 EU-Russia Summit, although France and 
Italy in particular noted that the EU should also 
take note of recent positive steps (from the EU 
perspective) by Russia such as ratification of the 
Kyoto Protocol and extension of the EU-Russsia 
Partnership and Cooperation Agreement to the 10 new 
EU members.  With the media, Bot did mention these 
steps, but also stressed the EU would insist the 
four proposed EU-Russia "spaces" were a coherent 
package that is indivisible, and that the EU was 
prepared to accept that it might not reach agreement 
with Russia on the whole package at next week's 
Summit.  (One source said this was a noticeably 
"firmer line than Bot took 10 days ago" in the EU- 
Russia ministerial meeting, after which Bot had 
taken some criticism from other member states over 
being too soft.) 
 
BELARUS 
------- 
 
8. (SBU) Polish FM raised concerns about recent 
developments, and suggested the European Council 
Conclusions on Nov. 5 should include a paragraph on 
Belarus.  The Dutch Presidency resisted adding any 
topics to the Summit.  But several other Member 
States (Denmark, Finland, Balts) agreed the 
situation is of concern, and that the EU needed to 
take a strong line, though more through engagement 
than isolation. 
 
OTHER AFRICA 
------------ 
 
9. (U) Individual member states gave interventions 
on issues of predictable national concern -- Somalia 
(Italy), Congo (Belgium) and Guinea-Bissau 
(Portugal) -- but failed to spark any real 
discussion. 
 
ASYLUM AND IMMIGRATION 
---------------------- 
 
10. (U) Dutch European Affairs Minister Atzo Nicolai 
reported progress on outstanding issues in the EU's 
next multi-annual JHA program.  He forecast that the 
European Council would agree to extend qualified 
majority voting (QMV)to all asylum and migration 
issues, other than rules on legal migration 
(including such issues as procedures on issuance of 
work permits).  Austria, Greece, Slovakia and 
Estonia voiced concerns about extending QMV to this 
final area.  (NOTE:  Under the current treaties, EU 
Member States, acting unanimously, can agree to move 
these issues to QMV from the current consensus 
requirement.)  Nicolai also reported that 2010 
should remain the EU's deadline for establishing a 
Common Asylum System. 
SCHNABEL