US embassy cable - 04TAIPEI3466

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 TAIPEI 003466 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/03/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, TW 
SUBJECT: LY ELECTION PREVIEW: WEST CENTRAL TAIWAN 
 
REF: A. TAIPEI 03340 
     B. TAIPEI 03294 
 
Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason: 1.4 (B/D) 
 
1. (C) Summary: Changhua County (ten seats) and Taichung City 
(eight seats) are likely to be major battlegrounds in the 
struggle for control of the Legislative Yuan (LY) in this 
December's elections.  Both districts have traditionally been 
strongholds for the Pan-Blue, but weakness in the Pan-Blue 
alliance and shifts in voting patterns seen in the March 
presidential election have encouraged the Pan-Green to go on 
the offensive.  In both districts, the Democratic Progressive 
Party (DPP) has nominated all of its incumbents and added a 
strong moderate to the slate in each in the hopes of taking 
an extra seat and getting closer to a working majority in the 
LY.  If the Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU) candidate in 
Changhua and a pro-Green former Mayor in Taichung also do 
well, the Pan-Green could potentially take two extra seats in 
each district, although a gain of just one seat in each is 
more likely.  The Pan-Blue, for its part, is trying to hold 
onto the seats it currently has, but problems of 
overnomination and the presence of ex-KMT mavericks threaten 
to undermine their position.  End Summary. 
 
Changhua County: Shifting Toward Pan-Green? 
------------------------------------------- 
 
2. (U) Changhua County (pop. 1,316,321), located on Taiwan's 
central west coast, is represented in the LY with ten seats. 
Nineteen candidates are registered for the December 
elections, in which Changhua will likely be a key 
battleground in the struggle for control of the LY. 
Historically the district has solidly been Pan-Blue 
territory: in the 2001 LY election, they took 54 percent of 
the vote, while the Pan-Green mustered only 38 percent. 
However, in the March presidential elections, the Democratic 
Progressive Party (DPP) won in Changhua by 4.5 percent. 
Encouraged by this shift, the Pan-Green have nominated six 
candidates in the hopes of winning a majority in Changhua for 
the first time.  The Pan-Blue, confident in their traditional 
control of the county, have aggressively nominated seven 
candidates. 
 
DPP: A Team Campaign 
-------------------- 
 
3. (C) DPP Changhua County Chairman Liang Tseng-hsiang 
expressed optimism about his party's chances this year.  The 
DPP has nominated all four of its incumbents -- Charles 
Chiang (Chao-yi), Chiu Chuang-chin, Chou Ching-yu, and Wei 
Ming-ku -- for reelection and hopes to gain a seat with the 
nomination of Ke Jin-te.  Ke is a protege of the County 
Magistrate Weng Chin-chu and a member of the moderate New 
Tide faction of the DPP.  Liang said that the party plans to 
use the same "joint campaign" strategy that the DPP is using 
elsewhere, hoping that a team approach and an emphasis on the 
importance of taking a majority in the LY will result in an 
even distribution of votes among the candidates.  When asked 
about the possible use of a "peipiao" vote-distribution 
scheme, he said it was too early to discuss, noting that 
incumbent lawmaker Charles Chiang is opposed to it.  Peipiao 
schemes generally assume that each candidate will have a core 
group of supporters who will vote for him regardless of the 
party's instructions.  The more obedient party supporters are 
then divided among all candidates to ensure that each gets 
enough votes to win election.  Chiang reportedly believes 
that most of his supporters would be more loyal to the party 
than to him, and that much his support would therefore 
evaporate if a peipiao system were implemented.  Liang said 
he was not so worried about the incumbents' chances, noting 
that they had been elected in 2001 when the DPP garnered just 
under 30 percent of the vote.  This time, he estimated, the 
DPP should have no problem taking at least 40 percent, which 
would be more than sufficient to elect four or even five 
candidates.  (Note: Under Taiwan's single non-transferable 
vote election system, winning candidates are often elected 
with as little as five percent of the vote in a ten seat 
district like Changhua.  See Reftel A.  End Note.)  He added 
that Chen Shui-bian, who won the presidential election in 
March with over 52 percent of the vote in Changhua, will 
"without a doubt" come out and stump for all five candidates. 
 
KMT: Cultivating Local Connections 
---------------------------------- 
4. (C) KMT Changhua County Chairman Hsu Fu-ming said the 
DPP's performance in the March presidential election does not 
worry him.  Local connections and image, he said, determine 
the outcome of LY elections more than party affiliation.  Hsu 
noted that all five of the KMT nominees have long cultivated 
strong grassroots support and connections in the local 
townships and villages in Changhua County.  For example, 
incumbent lawmaker Chen Chieh, who is running for reelection, 
is the brother of the mayor of Changhua City.  Chen 
Hsiu-ching, another KMT nominee, is the wife of Lin Jin-chun, 
a KMT legislator who will step down at the end of this term. 
Each of the other KMT nominees (incumbent Cho Po-yuan and 
newcomers Chen Chung-ming and Lin Chang-ming) has a local 
base of support, he said.  The KMT's strategy, Hsu explained, 
is to assign each candidate an exclusive region where they 
can build a base and allow them to pick up additional votes 
by campaigning in open districts.  Hsu said that he was 
confident that with this candidate-oriented campaign and the 
organized support of local campaign offices, all five 
candidates will "definitely" reach the 40,000 vote threshold 
needed to get elected. 
 
PFP: A Nomination Blunder? 
-------------------------- 
 
5. (C) Despite taking only one seat in the previous election, 
the People First Party (PFP) has nominated two candidates 
this year.  PFP Changhua Chairman Hung Pen-chiao admitted 
that newcomer Chen Chao-jung's chances for election are not 
as good as the incumbent Hsieh Chang-chieh, who "is much more 
organized and has a lot of local support".  Hung was unable 
to articulate a coherent strategy for the election of the 
PFP's two candidates, and instead responded to AIT's 
questions with a litany of complaints ranging from the 
injustice of the last presidential election to the larger 
parties' unfair vote-buying practices.  Without vote-buying, 
he claimed, the PFP's two candidates would certainly be 
elected. 
 
TSU: Lost in the Crowd 
 
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---------------------- 
 
6. (C) The Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU) took eight percent 
of the vote in the previous election, enough for one seat, 
but because their vote was split between two candidates, the 
seat instead went to an independent, Chen Chin-ting, who is 
not running for reelection.  This year, the TSU decided to 
nominate only one candidate, Chen Yang-te, the less popular 
of the two nominees from 2001.  Chen's lack of 
name-recognition will be a significant challenge in the 
uphill fight to distinguish himself from the six other 
relatively unknown candidates running without major party 
support.  Chen Jing-ting, who has the Nonpartisan Solidarity 
Union (NSU) nomination and independent Huang Wen-ling, the 
daughter of former Central Election Commissioner George 
Huang, stand out as his most likely competitors, according to 
DPP Chairman Liang.  However, most observers think that the 
chances of the TSU or independent candidates winning election 
this year are all exceedingly slim. 
 
Taichung City: Solid Blue Territory? 
------------------------------------ 
 
7. (U) Just north of Changhua County is Taichung City (pop. 
1,114,080), Taiwan's third largest metropolitan district, 
which will have eight LY seats.  This is one seat more than 
it currently has, a reflection of the city's growing 
population.  Taichung is also considered a long-time Pan-Blue 
stronghold.  In the 2001 LY election, the Pan-Blue took 52 
percent of the vote and four seats, while the Pan-Green took 
42 percent and the remaining three seats.  In the 2004 
presidential election, the city remained Blue territory, 
voting for KMT nominee Lien Chan by a five percent margin. 
Six of Taichung's seven incumbents are running for reelection 
this year, but the additional seat this year has energized a 
large number of new candidates (including a popular former 
Mayor) to try for election. 
 
Pan-Green: New Seat Might Tip the Balance 
----------------------------------------- 
8. (C) The Pan-Green has nominated all of its incumbents (Lee 
Ming-hsien and Hsieh Ming-yuan of the DPP and Ho Min-hao of 
the TSU) as well as a DPP newcomer, Wang Shih-shun of the 
moderate New Tide faction, in the hopes of claiming 
Taichung's new seat.  DPP Taichung City Chairman Chen Da-jun 
acknowledged that Taichung has traditionally been a Pan-Blue 
stronghold, but he said he is confident that the DPP's 
organized "joint campaign" strategy and a successful peipiao 
system will help all three DPP candidates win election. 
Everybody AIT spoke with agreed that TSU candidate Ho's seat 
was safe because of his incumbent status and his strong 
family connections. 
 
Pan-Blue: On the Defensive 
-------------------------- 
 
9. (C) The Pan-Blue nominated more conservatively, hoping 
only to hold onto the territory they already have.  Newcomer 
Tsai Jin-lung will join popular incumbent Lu Hsiu-yen in 
 
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running under the KMT banner.  The other KMT incumbent, Hung 
Chao-nan, decided to step down after nine terms as a 
legislator to make room for a younger generation, explained 
KMT Taichung City Chairman Mu Kuei-hsin.  Mu said that rising 
Taiwanese identity will likely erode the Pan-Blue's ten 
percent lead from the last LY election, but he was still 
confident they will hold onto four seats.  The KMT's support 
level is high enough that it only needs to make sure to split 
the vote evenly between its two candidates to ensure their 
victory, he explained, so their strategy is simply to ask 
supporters to pair off and "cast one vote for Lu and one for 
Tsai." 
 
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10. (C) The PFP nominated both of its incumbents, Daniel 
Hwang (Yih-jiau) and Shen Chih-hui.  Hwang enjoys better 
name-recognition, but Shen's position is safer, said PFP 
Taichung City Chairman Lin Ping-yuan.  "In Taichung," he 
explained, "service counts for more than popularity."  As 
James Soong's spokesman, Huang has spent most of his time in 
Taipei, while Shen has taken time to provide services to her 
voters.  Taichung Deputy Mayor Hsiao Chia-chih agreed, saying 
that Shen's record of constituent service would ensure her 
reelection despite her notorious role in leading a crowd of 
demonstrators in an attempt to storm the High Court on the 
evening of March 20 in protest of the presidential election. 
With Shen's seat safe, Lin said his campaign is focused more 
on helping Huang win reelection.  However not all of Shen's 
voters, apparently, are so satisfied with her service record. 
 On October 29, Shen was stabbed by a disgruntled constituent 
allegedly upset with her for failing to help him recover 
money lost in a scam.  According to newspapers, her injuries 
were not serious and she is doing fine. 
 
Independents, Mavericks, and the Former Mayor 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
11. (C) The addition of a new seat in Taichung has tempted 
many independent candidates into joining the fray.  No fewer 
than eight candidates registered as independents by the 
October 12 deadline.  In addition to these, Lin Pei-le 
registered with the Nonpartisan Solidarity Union (NSU) after 
failing in the KMT primary.  New Party member Chen Su-wan 
will run under the KMT banner, although his campaign is not 
otherwise receiving support from the KMT.  (Note: This 
reflects an agreement reached when the New Party agreed to 
dissolve and have its members rejoin the KMT.  End Note.) 
Most observers agree that these independents and mavericks 
have little chance for election, although Lin and Chen might 
siphon off some of the KMT's support.  The one exception, 
however, is former Taichung Mayor Chang Wen-ying, who enjoys 
high name-recognition and will likely end up squeezing out 
the weakest of the major party candidates.  Although she left 
the DPP in 2001 and has registered for this election as an 
independent, her husband is the former DPP Taichung City 
Chairman, and she generally favors Pan-Green positions. 
 
Comment: DPP Storming the Walls 
------------------------------- 
 
12. (C) It appears the DPP has spotted cracks in the 
fortifications of traditional Pan-Blue strongholds Changhua 
County and Taichung City, and has gone on the attack.  In 
both districts it has renominated all its incumbents and 
added a strong New Tide moderate in the hopes of claiming an 
extra seat in each.  As we have seen in other districts, the 
DPP strategy is to run all their candidates as a team to 
ensure they are equally familiar to voters, while they keep a 
peipiao scheme in reserve in case it looks like the votes 
will not be distributed evenly.  This sophisticated national 
strategy starkly contrasts with the lack of coordination and 
discipline on the Pan-Blue side.  Pan-Blue candidates 
generally run independent campaigns centered on their "home 
turf," which can result in lopsided vote distribution and, if 
the party has overnominated, bitter infighting.  Although the 
Pan-Blue nominations in Changhua County and Taichung City 
were more disciplined than in neighboring Yunlin County 
(Reftel B), the presence of several ex-KMT mavericks in 
Taichung and the PFP's inexplicable decision to nominate two 
candidates in Changhua could spell trouble. 
 
13. (C) In Changhua, all the incumbents are widely expected 
safely to win reelection.  In addition, the KMT should have 
no trouble getting at least one of its newcomers elected. 
This gives both camps four seats.  The DPP's Ke, the TSU's 
Chen, and one of the remaining KMT candidates will compete 
for the remaining two seats.  This means Changhua is likely 
to split 5-5 (giving the Pan-Green an extra seat in the LY), 
or possibly 6-4 if the Pan-Green side campaigns particularly 
well.  The Pan-Green will probably also gain ground in 
Taichung.  There too, the six incumbents (2 DPP, 1 TSU, 1 
KMT, 2 PFP) are all expected to win.  The remaining two seats 
will be contested by the DPP's Wang, the KMT's Tsai, and the 
pro-DPP former Mayor Chang.  Again, the most likely outcome 
will be a 4-4 split (meaning an extra seat for Pan-Green) 
with a distinct possibility that the city will go 5-3 in 
favor of the Pan-Green.  End Comment. 
PAAL