US embassy cable - 04BOGOTA13168

C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 013168 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/28/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, KJUS, CO 
SUBJECT: PEACE AND PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS: A VIEW FROM THE 
DEMOCRATIC LEFT 
 
REF: BOGOTA 12860 
 
Classified By: Ambassador William B. Wood, Reasons: 1.5 B & D. 
 
1. (C) Summary: Leftist Senator Carlos Gaviria -- a 
self-declared presidential candidate in 2006 -- told poloffs 
to expect lawsuits against the recently approved 
constitutional amendment authorizing presidential reelection 
and expressed concerns about a possible clash between high 
courts over the issue.  He lamented the democratic left's 
inability to coalesce around a single candidate capable of 
challenging Uribe and suggested that former President Gaviria 
could shift the official Liberal Party to the right in 
alliance with Uribe.  He blamed the internal armed conflict 
on inequality of wealth and opportunity and complained that 
the security forces do not set a high enough human rights 
standard.  He will be an articulate presidential candidate, 
but his chances are poor.  End Summary. 
 
2. (SBU) On December 17, poloffs met with Senator Carlos 
Gaviria Diaz, former Constitutional Court Magistrate, current 
head of the center-left Democratic Alternative movement, and 
self-proclaimed 2006 presidential candidate.  In discussing 
Congress's recent passage of Constitutional reform 
legislation authorizing presidential reelection, Gaviria 
noted that any person can file suit ("demanda") against the 
legislation and said it is reasonable to expect a number of 
such suits in the near future.  He also expressed concern 
about a potential clash between two of the country's high 
courts -- the Constitutional Court and Council of State -- 
over the issue.  Gaviria acknowledged that President Uribe's 
popularity would be among the factors influencing the 
Constitutional Court's ultimate decision, but asserted that 
polls exaggerate the President's popularity. 
 
3. (SBU) Gaviria said it would be difficult for Colombia's 
democratic left to coalesce around a single presidential 
candidate, despite general agreement among leftist parties on 
a basic platform.  One factor is the continued high level of 
support for Uribe among the general public.  Another is that 
Bogota Mayor Luis Eduardo "Lucho" Garzon -- the left's most 
charismatic candidate, who has publicly declared he will not 
run for president in 2006 -- has concentrated on municipal 
administration and pulled away from purely political debate 
and infighting.  (Note: Per reftel, the reelection law would 
permit Garzon to run if he resigns as mayor one year prior to 
the presidential election scheduled for May 2006.  End Note.) 
 According to Gaviria, Garzon has distanced himself from the 
Independent Democratic Pole party ("Polo Democratico 
Independiente," or PDI) in recent months.  PDI leaders 
Antonio Navarro and Samuel Moreno both have presidential 
aspirations, but neither is competitive in public opinion 
polls at this time. 
 
4. (SBU) Regarding the struggling official Liberal Party, 
Gaviria predicted former Colombian President and OAS 
Secretary General Cesar Gaviria may seek to take control of 
 
SIPDIS 
the party and lead it in a so-called "neoliberal" direction. 
To do so, however, the former President would have to 
overcome opposition from the party's vocal social democratic 
wing.  Gaviria said the former President might also move the 
party toward open support for Uribe's reelection.  However, 
the "horse trading" to get Liberal Party support could strain 
the Conservative Party's support for Uribe.  Some 
conservatives, while loyal to Uribe as a party, perceive that 
Uribe has taken them for granted and would probably resent 
any concessions Uribe might make to gain the support of his 
former party's official structure. 
5. (SBU) For Gaviria, former President Andres Pastrana's 
failed appeasement policy with the Revolutionary Armed Forces 
of Colombia (FARC) was politically motivated and poorly 
negotiated, failing to exhaust the possibilities for a 
negotiated settlement.  Uribe's Democratic Security Policy 
correctly focuses on achieving public order through expanded 
state control, but has lost legitimacy because the security 
forces have not maintained standards sufficiently superior to 
those of the illegal armed groups they are trying to subdue. 
Gaviria offered frequent cases of mass detentions as an 
example of the state's failure to live up to its obligations. 
 
6. (C) Comment: Gaviria is one of the loudest voices of the 
center-left.  He was realistic about his slim prospects in 
the presidential campaign, continually pointing to Uribe's 
approval numbers and the lack of coordinated center-left 
opposition. 
WOOD