US embassy cable - 04BOGOTA12692

UNCLAS BOGOTA 012692 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON, EFIN, EPET, PGOV, PREL, CO 
SUBJECT: COLOMBIAN 3RD QUARTER GDP GROWTH MISSES THE MARK 
 
 
1.   (U) SUMMARY. The GOC released 2004 Q3 GDP figures 
showing a sluggish 2.43 percent growth rate.  GOC forecasts 
had predicted a 3.9 percent increase.  Colombia's expected 
2004 GDP growth rate of 4 percent can now only be achieved if 
Q4 GDP growth reaches 5 percent or higher.  These numbers are 
disappointing to Colombian government economists, and the 
GOC, through the Colombian press has come out with multiple 
explanations. END SUMMARY. 
 
2.   (U) Colombian government officials expressed concern 
over lower growth figures; however, they explained their 
inability to meet the 4.1 percent target as being a result of 
multiple variables.  Economists at the Central Bank and the 
National Planning Department (DNP) told econoff that the 
lower numbers are due to supply shocks caused by a truckers 
strike in September and October. In addition, Central Bankers 
noted that public investment in the third quarter was low. 
Colombia is currently experiencing a change of governments at 
the local level and local governments are currently in a 
period of renewing contracts, which constrains regional 
investment.  Officials at DANE, the National Statistics 
Department, have said that a slow down in the farming, coal 
and oil sectors is responsible for the low numbers. 
 
3.  (U) COMMENT: As it struggles to explain what went wrong 
with Q3 GDP figures, the GOC is also looking for explanations 
that do not frighten potential investors. END COMMENT. 
WOOD