US embassy cable - 04BOGOTA11752

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 BOGOTA 011752 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/15/2014 
TAGS: PREL, CO 
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR PRESIDENT BUSH'S MEETING WITH 
PRESIDENT URIBE IN COLOMBIA 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador William B. Wood for reasons 
1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
------------ 
Introduction 
------------ 
 
1. (C) President Uribe welcomes the visit of President and 
Mrs. Bush with enthusiasm.  Current hot topics include: 
 
--Floods in Northern Colombia, more than 150,000 persons 
affected 
 
--Demobilization and reinsertion of up to 3,000 paramilitary 
terrorists in the next two months 
 
--U.S. support in out years 
 
--Free Trade Agreement negotiations; next round in Tuscon at 
the end of November could be crucial 
 
--Record-breaking drug eradication and seizures 
 
--Major judicial reform starting in January 
 
--Extradition 
 
--U.S. travel advisory and security in Cartagena 
 
--Continued shortage of helicopters for counter-drug and 
counter-terror missions 
 
--Status of U.S. hostages 
 
--Human rights 
 
--Alternative development and humanitarian assistance 
 
--------------------------- 
Floods in Northern Colombia 
--------------------------- 
 
2. (C) Heavy rainfall has caused flooding in the north coast 
region, including the Cartagena area.  Some 200,000 persons 
have been affected and more than 300 homes destroyed. 
Through the Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance, we are 
providing $150,000 in assistance to the Red Cross to help 
some 10,000 persons in the hardest-hit areas south of 
Cartagena. 
 
------------------------------ 
Demobilization and Reinsertion 
------------------------------ 
 
3. (C) Colombia plans to demobilize 3,000 or so members of 
the United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia (AUC), the 
country's largest paramilitary terrorist organization, in the 
next six weeks, adding to the over 1,000 paramilitaries who 
demobilized in 2003.  The program is underfunded and the OAS 
verification chief has issued an international call for help; 
several European nations have responded with low levels of 
aid.  Uncertainty regarding Patriot Act restrictions has 
prevented direct U.S. assistance or involvement in design of 
the program.  President Uribe may seek U.S. assistance to 
help reinsert voluntarily demobilized ex-terrorists who are 
cooperating against their former organizations and otherwise 
adhering to the government's program.  This 
demobilization/reinsertion is expected to be the template for 
eventual demobilization of up to 15,000 paramilitaries by the 
end of 2005, and the leftist terrorists of the ELN, with whom 
preliminary talks are underway but going slowly. 
 
------------ 
U.S. Support 
------------ 
 
4. (C) As in past meetings, Uribe will be looking for private 
and public reaffirmations of U.S. support and continued 
financial resources for the next few years.  Requested U.S. 
assistance tops $660 million in FY05, plus a number of DOD 
operating accounts.  Special DOD assistance to Plan Patriota 
operations runs out after 2005. 
 
---------------------------- 
Free Trade Agreement/Economy 
---------------------------- 
 
5. (C) Negotiations on a Free Trade Agreement, with Peru and 
Ecuador, begin their fifth round on November 29 in Tuscon. 
President Uribe remains a strong proponent, but agricultural 
and other concerns, principally regarding pharmaceuticals, 
have prevented Colombia from moving as rapidly as it should. 
As a result, our goal of conclusion by early 2005 is 
uncertain.  Colombia hopes for special consideration for its 
close cooperation on counter-narcotics and counter-terrorism 
efforts.  Overall growth continues to be strong (about 4 
percent), and investment is returning.  But the country faces 
fiscal pressure, and President Uribe political pressure, from 
the competition for resources between defense and social 
needs, especially unemployment (currently 12.5 percent). 
 
----------------------------- 
Drug Eradication/Interdiction 
----------------------------- 
 
6. (C) FY04 drug eradication and interdiction are at record 
levels.  We should meet our 130,000-hectare goal for coca 
spraying and exceed last year's level for opium poppy. 
President Uribe is working to expand manual eradication 
efforts.  We continue to press for spraying in national parks 
in the face of Colombian and U.S. congressional resistance. 
Drug seizures are also at record levels.  In 2004 the 
Colombian National Police has seized approximately 56 metric 
tons; the Colombian military, primarily the navy and coast 
guard, approximately 68 metric tons; and a multi-national 
force approximately 192 metric tons.  Between eradication and 
seizures, more than 475 metric tons of drugs have been 
blocked in 2004, in comparison to about 300 tons in 2003. 
 
--------------- 
Judicial Reform 
--------------- 
 
7. (C) Colombia will switch to an oral adversarial trial 
system, like that of the U.S., in January.  We have provided 
extensive training and advice to this major reform; it is 
also a high priority among many in the U.S. Congress. 
President Uribe may request additional resources.  The 
Minister of Justice has requested that the justice sector 
rapidly/rapidly receive 50 percent of all Colombia-related 
drug assets that we seize; in the past, Colombia has received 
a smaller share, sometimes after years of delay. 
 
----------- 
Extradition 
----------- 
 
8. (C) President Uribe has approved since taking office more 
than 150 extraditions to the U.S.  He will likely ask for 
more political sensitivity in our extradition requests, as he 
and his ministers have done several times in the last year. 
Although Uribe is solid in his support, extradition faces 
political pressure from well-connected drug traffickers 
awaiting extradition and from paramilitary leaders involved 
in peace negotiations.  We are taking steps to avoid killing 
the golden goose.  Uribe may raise paramilitary leaders' 
efforts to negotiate extradition at the peace table.  We have 
said that extradition should not be a topic in the 
negotiations, and not be addressed in any way before all/all 
demobilization steps are fulfilled by the paramilitary 
leaders, including peaceful demobilization of their troops. 
Uribe has agreed. 
 
------------------ 
Cartagena/Consular 
------------------ 
 
9.  (C) The U.S. travel advisory warns against all travel to 
Colombia.  President Uribe may ask for a cut-out for 
Cartagena, so cruise ships, a potential major source of 
tourist revenue, can enter.  Cartagena has not seen a 
terrorist incident for two years, has special safeguards for 
cruise ship tourists (no incidents have been reported for 
European cruise ship tourists), and has a better security 
record than many Latin American capitals.  Although we resist 
a cut-out for Cartagena, we are working to revise the travel 
advisory for Colombia as a whole, and the State Department 
head of security will visit Cartagena at the end of November. 
 
---------------------- 
Plan Patriota/Military 
---------------------- 
 
10. (C) The Colombian Armed Forces has made steady progress 
against illegal armed groups since the late 1990s, thanks in 
large part to U.S. assistance.  Plan Patriota is currently 
focused in FARC-dominated, heavily forested southeastern 
Colombia; it is going well, but slowly.  The logistical 
strain of keeping 17,000 troops in the dense, hostile jungle, 
hundreds of miles from their supply bases, has been a huge 
challenge.  Poor inter-service cooperation, corruption, and 
tolerance of paramilitarism continue, but they are improving, 
most recently with good changes in senior military 
leadership.  There continues to be competition for scarce 
helicopters between counter-drug and counter-terrorism 
missions.  President Uribe may ask for additional Blackhawk 
helicopters. 
 
---------- 
Reelection 
---------- 
 
11. (C) Constitutional reform to permit Presidential 
re-election is near completion; we believe it is probable. 
The reform will face review by the Constitutional Court early 
next year, a wild card.  The press may seek a U.S. view on 
re-election.  Although we can praise President Uribe, we 
should avoid comment on re-election, which could be played as 
"interference in domestic affairs."  Uribe is above 65 
percent approval in polls. 
 
------------ 
Human Rights 
------------ 
 
12. (C) The Uribe Administration continues to make progress 
in human rights, but has not been completely successful in 
ensuring accountability, strengthening the military justice 
system, in breaking military ties to paramilitary groups, or 
in ending corruption.  The government has an active dialogue 
with NGOs, the United Nations, and foreign governments. 
Human rights training is mandatory for all members of the 
military and police.  The Embassy vets all units that receive 
U.S. assistance, in accordance with the Leahy Amendment. 
Homicides fell by 20 percent, kidnappings by 30 percent, and 
forced displacements by 49 percent in 2003; that trend has 
continued in 2004.  Less than 2 percent of human rights 
violations are attributable to government security forces. 
But recent violations by members of the armed forces, such as 
the suspicious murders in August of three trade unionists in 
the highly conflictive department of Arauca, demonstrate the 
need for further improvement. 
 
------------- 
U.S. Hostages 
------------- 
 
13. (C) The three U.S.-contractor hostages captured by the 
FARC in February 2003 are now the longest U.S. terror 
captives in the world.  (Another U.S. contractor and a 
Colombian were killed by the FARC in the same incident, when 
their helicopter safely crash-landed due to mechanical 
failure near a FARC camp.)  Plan Patriota operations have 
increased the likelihood that we will receive more 
information about the hostages, but also that an unintended 
encounter between Colombian forces and the hostage holders 
will result in their execution.  The Colombians are providing 
full assistance, both to keep us informed and to avoid 
unplanned encounters that might endanger the hostages.  The 
U.S. publicly has counseled against negotiations with the 
FARC for any of its dozens of hostages, to avoid providing an 
incentive for further hostage-taking.  We have supported 
Uribe's proposals for an exchange of hostages for FARC 
prisoners not accused of violent crimes provided that the 
FARC prisoners are prevented from returning to terrorist 
activities; so far the FARC has refused.  Uribe has assured 
us that the U.S. hostages will be included in any possible 
exchange. 
 
------------------------------------------- 
Development, Humanitarian, Judicial Reform 
------------------------------------------- 
14. (C) Alternative development, humanitarian aid, and 
democracy programs are going well.  We have leveraged 
substantial private sector assistance to establish 270 square 
miles of legal agriculture benefiting 40,000 families.  U.S. 
aid has helped nearly 2 million internally displaced persons. 
 Colombia has the largest displaced population outside Africa. 
WOOD