US embassy cable - 88STATE271057

C O N F I D E N T I A L STATE 271057 
 
E.O. 12356:  DECL:  OADR 
TAGS:  MOPS, MCAP, PREL, US, XF, NATO 
SUBJECT:  STAYING THE COURSE IN THE PERSIAN GULF 
 
1.  (CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT.) 
 
2.  WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FORMAL CEASE-FIRE BETWEEN 
IRAN AND IRAQ ON AUGUST 20, SOME ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE 
U.S. HAS ALREADY DECIDED TO BEGIN SOON TO REDUCE ITS 
NAVAL PRESENCE IN THE GULF.  RECENT STORIES IN THE U.S. 
PRESS HAVE FUELED THIS SPECULATION.  AS APPROPRIATE, 
POSTS SHOULD USE THE TALKING POINTS PROVIDED BELOW TO 
BRIEF THEIR HOST GOVERNMENTS (ESPECIALLY GCC STATES, 
EUROPEAN ALLIES WITH A NAVAL PRESENCE IN THE GULF, AND 
IRAQ) ON U.S. POLICY. 
 
3.  TALKING POINTS: 
 
--WE HAVE WORKED CLOSELY TOGETHER TO ACHIEVE A NEGOTIATED 
SETTLEMENT TO THE IRAN-IRAQ WAR.  WE ARE PLEASED WITH GCC 
AND ALLIED COOPERATION AND BELIEVE IT WAS INSTRUMENTAL IN 
THE POSITIVE RESULTS OF OUR MUTUAL EFFORTS--THE 
CEASE-FIRE AND PROGRESS TOWARD FULL IMPLEMENTATION OF 598. 
 
--WE HAVE CONSISTENTLY MAINTAINED THAT OUR FORCE 
AUGMENTATION AND THAT OF OUR ALLIES WAS DIRECTLY RELATED 
TO THE THREAT POSED TO OUR SHIPPING, AND TO THE SECURITY 
AND STABILITY OF OUR FRIENDS IN THE REGION.  WE HAVE ALSO 
CONSISTENTLY MAINTAINED THAT, SHOULD THE THREAT ABATE, WE 
ARE PREPARED TO REVIEW AND, AS APPROPRIATE, TO REDUCE OUR 
NAVAL DEPLOYMENTS IN THE REGION. 
 
--GIVEN THE CLOSE COOPERATIVE AND SUPPORTIVE NATURE OF 
OUR PRESENCE, THAT OF OUR ALLIES, AND OUR FRIENDS IN THE 
GULF, WE WILL ONLY DO SO AFTER CONSULTING CLOSELY WITH 
THE GCC STATES AND AFTER COORDINATING WITH OUR EUROPEAN 
ALLIES.  WE WILL NOT TAKE PREEMPTIVE OR UNILATERAL 
ACTIONS.  WE WILL CONTINUE TO CONSULT WITH YOU AS WE 
ASSESS THE SITUATION IN VIEW OF THE IMMINENT CEASE-FIRE. 
 
--AS YOU ARE WELL AWARE, THE U.S. HAS HAD A NAVAL 
PRESENCE IN THE PERSIAN GULF FOR OVER FORTY YEARS.  THAT 
PRESENCE CLEARLY PRE-DATES THE GULF WAR; WE INTEND TO 
MAINTAIN AN APPROPRIATE NAVAL PRESENCE, EVEN AFTER THE 
PROBLEMS BETWEEN IRAN AND IRAQ ARE RESOLVED. 
 
--THE U.S. INTENDS TO STAY THE COURSE IN THE GULF.  OUR 
POLICY REFLECTS OUR NATIONAL INTERESTS AS WE HAVE DEFINED 
THEM OVER MORE THAN EIGHT ADMINISTRATIONS.  IT HAS STRONG 
BIPARTISAN AND PUBLIC SUPPORT. 
 
(END TALKING POINTS) 
 
4.  FYI ONLY:  THE SIZE AND STRUCTURE OF OUR AUGMENTED 
NAVAL FORCES WILL REMAIN COMMENSURATE WITH THE THREAT. 
AS THAT THREAT DIMINISHES, WE WILL REDUCE THE FORCE AS 
APPROPRIATE.  THE DEPARTMENT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVISE WHEN 
FORCE LEVEL CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED IN ORDER TO ALLOW THE 
EMBASSIES TO CONSULT WITH THE STATES OF THE REGION AND 
OUR ALLIES.  END FYI. YYY 
 
 
WHITEHEAD