US embassy cable - 04TAIPEI3445

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 003445 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/RSP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - 
ROBERT PALLADINO 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, KPAO, TW, Cross Strait Politics, Foreign Policy 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: SECRETARY POWELL'S BEIJING 
TRIP AND U.S. POLICY, WAR ON TERRORISM 
 
 
1. Secretary Powell's Beijing Trip and U.S. Policy 
 
A) "President Chen Once Said He Would Make the United 
States Happy and Give Beijing No Excuse [to Attack 
Taiwan]" 
 
The centrist, pro-status quo "China Times" 
editorialized (10/31): 
 
". Judged from whichever perspective, Secretary 
Powell's remarks [in Beijing] indicate that President 
Chen's previous rhetoric that he `would make the United 
States feel happy and give Beijing no excuse [to attack 
Taiwan]' has proved to be a mere illusion.  Now, not 
only does Beijing have a lot of excuses [to attack the 
island], but also Washington even has scolded Taiwan 
publicly in Beijing.  The heavy blow dealt by Powell 
shows that the position held by the Chen Shui-bian 
administration that `Taiwan is an independent sovereign 
state' has led Taiwan to a road that will [cause it to] 
have to confront two major powers - Washington and 
Beijing.  In the past, the Chen Shui-bian 
administration was able to move around in the somewhat 
narrowed cross-Strait relationship and it would 
manipulate `war flame diplomacy' by relying on the 
goodwill of the Bush administration.  Without such a 
shield, Taiwan, which is splitting domestically, will 
face a will-centered and power-centered mainland China. 
This is the most perilous situation that Taiwan has 
never encountered in the past five decades. ." 
 
B) "`Powell Disturbance' Happens Because Taiwan's and 
Washington's Cross-Strait Policies Both Deviate from 
Reality" 
 
The pro-independence "Liberty Times" said in an 
editorial (10/30): 
 
". The `Powell disturbance' . reminded Taiwan that it 
needs to accelerate its pace in moving toward normal 
country [status] and terminate the `Republic of China' 
that implies entanglement with China, so that Taiwan's 
sovereign status can be safeguarded by the 
international community.  The `Powell disturbance' also 
reminded Washington to adjust its cross-Strait policy 
as early as possible, renouncing the `one China policy' 
that is not supported in Taiwan, recognizing Taiwan's 
sovereignty and respecting the will of the Taiwan 
people.  Only when Taiwan and the United States quickly 
mend the gap between their policies and reality can 
they jointly urge Beijing to face reality. ." 
 
C) "The United States Owes Taiwan an Explanation" 
 
The "News Watch" column of the pro-independence "Taiwan 
Daily" noted (10/30): 
 
". If Taiwan is not an `independent sovereign state,' 
why does it have to buy weapons and have its own 
military?  If Taiwan is a province of China, why then 
does the United States need to sell weapons to us? 
This is a bizarre question that the United States 
should offer an explanation about to Taiwan." 
 
D) "The United States Should Accept the Fact That 
Taiwan Has Grown up" 
 
Correspondent James Wang said in the "Washington 
Review" column of the pro-independence "Taiwan Daily" 
(10/30): 
 
". The United States should seriously reconsider that 
the so-called `one China' policy will face more 
disputes and backlashes if Washington refuses to accept 
the status quo that Taiwan is already a sovereign 
nation.  It hurt the feelings of the Taiwan people 
badly when the United States said Taiwan, which was 
built following the model of U.S. democracy, is `not' a 
country.  Even if Washington cannot change its policy 
for the time being, it should at least be more 
sensitive to Taiwan's sovereign status." 
 
E) "Strategic Thinking Needed in Handling U.S.-Taiwan 
Ties" 
 
The pro-independence, English-language "Taiwan News" 
editorialized (11/1): 
 
"After the week-long fracas over the apparent flip- 
flopping statements by United States Secretary of State 
Colin Powell, Taiwan faces an even more serious 
challenge as we and the world await the results of the 
November 2 U.S. presidential election. 
 
"To face the new era that will come from the results of 
this poll, the Democratic Progressive Party 
administration of President Chen Shui-bian urgently 
needs an entirely new pattern of strategic thinking 
regarding the Taiwan-U.S. relationship. . 
 
". Washington's so-called `Our One-China Policy' 
remains the same, but its strategy has changed. 
 
"Taiwan leaders now need to bear this new political 
reality in mind.  No matter who wins the U.S. 
presidential election, more pressure will be put on 
Taiwan to refrain from making moves or `trouble' that 
could hurt what the current administration in 
Washington perceives as U.S. national interests.  This 
state of affairs has arisen not because Taiwan has 
weakened, but because Taiwan is more democratic and the 
PRC is both undemocratic and less predictable. 
 
"Hence, discussions on whether Bush or Kerry is 
`friendlier' to Taiwan are meaningless.  Any preference 
for either side should thus not be founded on 
exaggerated expectations of improvement in bilateral 
relations, but on broader concerns, namely which 
candidate offers to foster a global environment more 
favorable for Taiwan to proceed on our road toward 
democracy, peace and sustainability. ." 
 
2. War on Terrorism 
 
"Taiwan Should Watch Closely the United States' Anti- 
Terrorism Strategic Deployment after the General 
Elections" 
 
The pro-independence "Liberty Times" editorialized 
(11/1): 
 
". [T]he focus of the United States' global strategic 
deployment will remain basically the same . in the 
future.  For Taiwan, this means both an opportunity and 
a challenge.  The challenge is that the United States 
hopes China would assist in the war on terrorism, and 
thus it makes it possible for China to blackmail 
Washington using the Taiwan issue.  The opportunity, 
however, is that both [U.S. President George W.] Bush 
and [Democratic presidential candidate John] Kerry 
insist on continuing selling defensive weapons to 
Taiwan and they support a peaceful resolution to cross- 
Strait disputes with the consent of the Taiwan people. 
Since the September 11 tragedy, Taiwan has been a great 
supporter of the global war on terrorism led by the 
United States, and this has proved [that] deep mutual 
interests [exist] between Taipei and Washington.  In 
the wake of the U.S. general elections, Taiwan and the 
United States could strengthen their communication and 
contact to effectively control the tensions caused by 
China's military intimidation and jointly promote the 
two sides' mutual interests and democratic values in 
the Asia-Pacific region." 
 
PAAL