US embassy cable - 04COLOMBO1794

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 001794 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SA/INS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/31/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, CE, Political Parties 
SUBJECT: SRI LANKA:  POLITICAL MANEUVERS DIVERT PROGRESS 
TOWARD DIALOGUE 
 
 
Classified By: DCM JAMES F. ENTWISTLE.  REASON:  1.4 (B,D). 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  (C)  A flurry of recent activity on the domestic 
political front suggests that President Chandrika Kumaratunga 
may be planning to ensure her hold on power past her term 
limit by attempting to abolish the executive presidency and 
succeeding to the post of prime minister.  Achieving this aim 
involves a series of complicated and controversial steps of 
questionable constitutionality.  The President's machinations 
will inevitably increase the already substantial partisan 
distrust between her and Opposition Leader Ranil 
Wickremesinghe, while potentially deepening the growing rift 
between her and her largest coalition partner, the Janatha 
Vimukti Peramuna (JVP). Besides the risk of fostering even 
greater disunity among the mainstream political forces, the 
President's preoccupation with her personal political future 
is diverting her and others' attention and energy away from 
the greatest challenge of her administration--the peace 
process.  End summary. 
 
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MINISTERS MULTIPLY 
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2.  (SBU)  While there has been no recent discernible 
progress toward resumed negotiations between the Government 
of Sri Lanka (GSL) and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam 
(LTTE), over the past ten days the domestic political scene 
has witnessed a flurry of feverish maneuvering, 
aisle-crossing, finger-pointing and positioning.  On October 
30 President Chandrika Kumaratunga appointed three dissident 
MPs from the opposition Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) as 
non-Cabinet Ministers, bringing to 83--or more than one-third 
the number of MPs in Parliament--the total of Ministers (38), 
Deputy Ministers (42) and non-Cabinet Ministers (3) named 
since the April general elections.  With the defection of the 
three SLMC malcontents, Kumaratunga's slender majority in the 
225-seat Parliament hit 117.  Kumaratunga's penchant for 
bestowing posts has drawn sharp criticism from coalition 
partner Janatha Vimukti Peramuna (JVP), which accounts for 
only a comparatively modest eight Ministers and Deputy 
Ministers. 
 
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PLANS TO OUST UNP SPEAKER CONFIRMED 
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3.  (SBU) In an October 28 press conference, Government 
Spokesman and Information Minister Mangala Samaraweera 
confirmed the opposition United National Party's (UNP) worst 
fears by asserting that the ruling coalition is considering 
ways to oust UNP MP W.J.M. Lokubandara from his post as 
Speaker of Parliament.  (Note:  Hypothetically, this could be 
achieved with a simple majority bringing a vote of no 
confidence against the Speaker.  In reality, however, this 
may be easier said than done.  The President may not be able 
to count on the eight votes of Ceylon Workers Congress (CWC) 
MPs, which joined the government in September with the 
proviso that it would not participate in a no-confidence 
motion.  End note.)  With the Opposition Speaker safely out 
of the way, a more pliant substitute chosen by the government 
could introduce a motion to convert Parliament into a 
constituent assembly, UNP sources fear--a move that requires 
only a simple majority for passage.  According to one 
possible scenario, the President could then attempt to 
fulfill her campaign pledge to abolish the executive 
presidency--and the two-term limit that will eventually force 
her from office--in favor of an executive prime ministership 
(with no term limits).  If such a change to the Constitution 
is endorsed by the Parliament-turned-constituent assembly and 
is confirmed by a referendum, Prime Minister Mahinda 
Rajapakse would obligingly step aside, allowing Kumaratunga 
to fill his slot. 
 
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IN FOR THE LONG TERM 
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4.  (SBU) In the same press conference Samaraweera also 
articulated what many have long assumed--that the President 
considers her second term to have begun in August 2000--when 
she was allegedly sworn in by Chief Justice Sarath 
Silva--rather than in December 1999 when she won the 
election.  The President's stance, while obviously 
controversial (only she, the Chief Justice and the Foreign 
Minister were present at the hush-hush ceremony, which was 
only publicized much after the fact), appears to be 
constitutionally defensible--especially since the Chief 
Justice has already indicated he will support the "long view" 
of the President's term.  Because presidential elections take 
place in December, moreover, the eight-month hiatus between 
her election and swearing-in actually gives Kumaratunga a 
whole extra year as President, with elections--at least 
according to the Government--being contemplated for December 
2006. 
 
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JVP SNIPING 
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5.  (SBU)  While the President may be maneuvering to secure 
an extended hold as head of government, the JVP, her largest 
coalition partner, continues to play the part of a 
not-so-loyal opposition, criticizing the government--and even 
Kumaratunga herself--on a variety of fronts.  In the run-up 
to the budget presentation on November 18, Small Industries 
Minister and JVP MP Lal Kantha garners substantial media 
coverage by regularly lambasting the government for its 
inability to keep down the cost of living and its failure to 
institute promised salary hikes.  A high-visibility spitting 
match between Maitripala Sirisena, the Sri Lanka Freedom 
Party (SLFP) General Secretary and Mahaweli (River Valley) 
Development Minister, and Anura Dissanayake, the JVP 
Agriculture Minister, over a politically charged development 
project prompted the President to call for an investigation 
into possible misappropriation of funds by Dissanayake's 
ministry.  In retaliation, on October 23 JVP MP Nanda 
Gunatilleke publicly blasted the President's failure to abide 
by her agreement to consult her coalition partner on all 
Cabinet-level appointments and decisions, threatening that 
Kumaratunga's continued free-lancing might cost her critical 
JVP support in the Provincial Councils. Another salvo 
followed at a seminar held by the National Patriotic 
Organization, a JVP front, on October 24, when JVP MP and 
Propaganda Secretary Wimal Weerawansa described the President 
as little more than an "oil cake" until JVP support gave her 
the strength needed to face down the rival UNP and win the 
general elections in April.  Although Weerawansa later 
publicly amended his remarks to note that he had not meant to 
ridicule the President, it is hard to mistake the tenor of 
his comments as anything other than a warning to Kumaratunga 
that she still needs the JVP--especially if she wants to take 
on the UNP yet again by attempting to dump the Speaker. 
 
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COMMENT 
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6.  (C) Political intrigue--and holding the national interest 
hostage to such intrigue--is, regrettably, nothing new to Sri 
Lanka.  What is especially disappointing about the current 
feverish politicking is that it is shunting aside other, more 
pressing national problems (like resuming negotiations with 
the LTTE) to a distant second place.  The energy and 
attention the President is expending to ensure her hold on 
power could be more usefully directed at ensuring her place 
in history by reinvigorating the peace process. 
Unfortunately, however, the partisan political game she seems 
intent on playing is guaranteed to generate further distrust, 
bickering and subterfuge, rather than to promote the national 
unity needed to address the challenges ahead. 
LUNSTEAD