US embassy cable - 04TAIPEI3414

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 003414 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/26/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, TW 
SUBJECT: LY ELECTION PREVIEW: NORTH EASTERN TAIWAN 
 
 
Classified By: AIT Deputy Director David Keegan; Reasons: 1.4 (B/D) 
 
 1.  (C) Summary: Keelung and Ilan counties, while at odds 
politically, both look to be equally predictable in the 
December legislative Yuan (LY) elections.  Keelung is about 
60 percent Pan-Blue and has five candidates vying for three 
seats.  There are only four candidates running for three 
seats in the Green-stronghold of Ilan.  There is little 
energy in the campaigns in either district, with voter 
turn-out expected to be lower than in the 2001 LY elections. 
In Keelung, two of the three seats will likely go Pan-Blue, 
with the KMT and People First Party (PFP) splitting the seats 
and the third seat going to the DPP.  There is, however, some 
concern in the Pan-Blue camp that voters may throw too much 
support behind one of the candidates and allow a Taiwan 
Solidarity Union (TSU) dark-horse to slip past the post.  In 
Ilan, early polls suggest that the DPP will grab two seats 
and the KMT will get the remaining seat.  The Pan-Blue in 
theory have enough votes to evenly split the vote between the 
KMT and PFP candidates and pick up two seats, but both sides 
think this is a long shot since the DPP has traditionally 
been better at this game and the KMT candidate's campaign 
strategy is focused on achieving victory for himself without 
concern for the PFP's prospects.  End summary. 
 
Keelung County: Still Blue 
-------------------------- 
 
2.  (C) Keelung County (pop. 385,000) has three LY seats up 
for grabs in December.  A total of five candidates registered 
by the October 12 deadline, but only three of those 
candidates are being taken seriously.  According to the local 
KMT, PFP, and DPP organizations, Keelung is Pan-Blue 
territory with about 60 percent of voter support for the 
opposition.  Voter turn-out is expected to reach around 60-65 
percent based on past precedent.  Both sides have nominated 
two candidates each, but the TSU's Wang Tung-hui is 
struggling because his multiple party switches -- from KMT, 
to the DPP, and now the TSU -- has weakened his credibility 
among Keelung voters.  Both sides say the independent 
candidate Lu Mei-lung, is not a factor, since it is hard to 
win in Keelung without party support.  According to Keelung 
City Mayor Hsu Tsai-hi, the county was hit hard by the recent 
economic downturn, and voters will be looking for candidates 
that can use their party's weight in the LY to bring in money 
from the central government to develop Keelung's port and 
improve the area's infrastructure. 
 
Pan-Blue: Divide and Conquer 
---------------------------- 
 
3.  (C) Keelung's KMT Chairman, Li Poi-yuan, is confident the 
KMT and PFP candidates will win seats.  KMT candidate Hsu 
Shao-ping is an incumbent LY member and well-known to voters. 
 However, Li did express concern that the PFP candidate, 
Hsieh Kuo-liang, could steal away too many votes from the 
KMT, because of his family connections in Keelung, and give 
the Pan-Green an opening to win two seats.  Hsieh at 29 with 
a Masters degree from MIT, has a clean image, family wealth, 
and provides a fresh face in Keelung politics.  While he may 
be new to Keelung politics, his family is not; both his 
father and grandfather were prominent Keelung KMT members. 
He is running on the slogan of "youth, professionalism, 
creativity, and technology."  Keelung PFP Chairman Yu 
Cheng-chen, also expressed concern about the voters taking 
overly supporting one of the candidates and like the KMT, is 
trying to ensure that voters support the candidates evenly. 
But Yu admitted that this is hard to control.  Yu said the 
main issues the PFP are focusing on are: "Chen Shui-bian's 
dictatorship" and "Taiwan is finished" if the Pan-Green 
achieves a majority in the LY.  Both Li and Yu told AIT that 
at this early stage in the election, they are confident they 
can garner a fairly even split and allow both candidates to 
win seats for Pan-Blue. 
 
DPP Expecting Final Seat 
------------------------ 
 
4.  (C) Keelung DPP Chairman, Shih Shih-ming, told AIT he is 
certain both the DPP, with incumbent candidate Wang To, and 
the KMT will each win one seat.  Shih said that the question 
remains who will pick up the third and final seat. 
Privately, Shih told AIT that the PFP has a better chance 
than the TSU of picking of the last seat.  Shih said the PFP 
candidate can win if he gets some of the KMT votes and uses 
his family connections.  Shih expressed only slight concern 
that the TSU may take away some votes from their candidate. 
Shih admitted the DPP's relationship with the TSU candidate 
is not close and that they are not planning to cooperate in 
Keelung.  The DPP's primary slogan is to "seize the majority 
in the LY to end the chaos." 
 
Ilan County: True Green 
----------------------- 
 
5.  (C) Ilan County (pop. 453,000), on the northeast coast of 
Taiwan has only three seats in the LY.  Since the last LY 
elections in 2001, it lost one seat due to its declining 
population.  This year, the mood appears to be sedate with 
only four candidates running down from the ten who ran for 
four seats in 2001.  Still, both sides estimate that each 
candidate will likely spend about $240,000 to $300,000 
(NT$8-10 million) on the campaign.  Ilan has traditionally 
been a Pan-Green stronghold with more than 50 percent of the 
population supporting Pan-Green candidates.  Voter turn-out 
is expected to be around 60 to possibly 65 percent, lower 
than the 71 percent voter turn-out in 2001.  Both sides have 
nominated two candidates and the two DPP candidates are 
expected to win seats.  The final seat is expected to go to 
the KMT candidate, who is running ahead of the DPP first 
local polls.  The incumbent PFP candidate is a distant fourth 
and is expected to lose her seat.  The DPP has been making a 
campaign issue of the KMT's assets since the KMT has two 
large properties in Ilan. 
 
DPP Running as a Team 
--------------------- 
 
6.  (C) Ilan County DPP Chairman, Chen Ou-po, told AIT that 
their main focus is to get the two DPP candidates elected by 
splitting the vote (peipiao).  Both candidates, Chang 
Chuan-tien and Chen Chin-te, are incumbents and are running 
as a team.  The two always appear together at campaign 
rallies.  DPP Ilan County Council Deputy Speaker Chen 
Wen-chang remarked to AIT that the DPP has never had to worry 
about splitting votes in Ilan before, but they might have to 
for this election since there are only 3 seats now. 
According to Chen, the DPP does not have a set approach to 
divide the votes yet, but they are considering a variety of 
measures including having families split their votes among 
the two candidates.  DPP County Chairman Chen said the DPP is 
getting organizational and personnel support from DPP party 
central, but no funding.  Chen remarked that he is most 
worried that one candidate will be too selfish and try to 
take too many voters, which could give the PFP a chance.  But 
he quickly stated that this is not a major concern at this 
point. 
 
KMT Ahead, Won't Share Votes 
---------------------------- 
 
7.  (C) The KMT's main strategy is to make certain they don't 
lose this year.  Their candidate, Chen Chien-jung, who serves 
as the Ilan County KMT Chairman, was number one in opinion 
polls prior to the 2001 LY election and lost because voters 
shifted their votes to other Pan-Blue candidates.  According 
to the KMT's Ilan County Headquarters Director, Chen 
Ming-chang, KMT candidate Chen is again ahead in the polls, 
but is taking nothing for granted this time.  For this 
reason, the KMT is looking to solidify their traditional 
support base and will do nothing to help the PFP.  Overall, 
Chen remarked that he is confident the KMT will win because 
their candidate is popular in Ilan, has name recognition from 
the last election, and has a good connection with the voters. 
 Chen told AIT that they expect some Pan-Blue voters to 
support the PFP, but recent polls say the PFP incumbent, 
Cheng Mei-lan, is running at only 5 percent.  Chen bluntly 
remarked that Cheng should not be running since there is no 
room for the PFP in Ilan and claimed that she was elected by 
accident last time.  He said it would take a "miracle" for 
Cheng win again.  Chen said one concern is the DPP making the 
KMT's property assets in Ilan a campaign issue.  Chen also 
accused the DPP of vote buying, but admitted he has no 
evidence of this. 
 
PFP Not Much Hope, But a Noble Candidate 
---------------------------------------- 
 
8.  (C) Incumbent PFP candidate Cheng admits she has a long 
road ahead and not much of a chance.  She told AIT she is not 
just running for herself, but to give the voters another 
choice and help the Pan-Blue cause.  Cheng said that she has 
done a lot for the residents of Ilan, particularly for the 
women, and believes she should offer them a choice since she 
is the only female candidate.  Cheng also said she believes 
that her running will greatly increase Pan-Blue voter turn 
out in Ilan and help the Pan-Blue coalition gain or maintain 
an additional seat on the proportional list.  While admitting 
that she faces an uphill battle, Cheng asserted that she has 
a chance in this campaign if she can peel off some KMT 
voters.  She calculates she will get about 38,000 votes on 
her own and if she can get 20,000 KMT votes, she can win. 
Cheng said that this would still leave the KMT candidate Chen 
with more than enough votes (about 70,000) to win and the 
Pan-Blue could get two seats from Ilan.  But Cheng lamented 
that Chen will not give her any votes because of what 
happened during the last election so she must appeal to the 
voters themselves to support her. 
 
Comment: Voters Tired, Not Interested in National Issues 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
 
9.  (C) While it is still early in the campaign, the 
situation in both Keelung and Ilan appears to be predicable, 
barring any major developments or scandals.  Both sides 
expect the Pan-Blue to win two seats in Keelung and one seat 
in Ilan and the Pan-Green to win one seat in Keelung and two 
seats in Ilan.  The central party organizations seem to agree 
since candidates in both counties are not receiving any 
financial support and are relying on local fundraising 
efforts or their own personal wealth for funds.  The 
candidates do expect to have prominent party leaders come 
campaign and lead rallies, but this is likely due more to the 
two district's proximity to Taipei rather than their 
importance to the campaign.  National issues are not at the 
forefront of the this campaign, and the voters seem tired of 
politics after the presidential election earlier this year. 
Keelung City Mayor Yu remarked that "the voters don't care 
about the issues" while in Ilan, Deputy Speaker Chen said the 
climate has turned "cold" for the LY elections. 
PAAL